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Gays in 2050

Where will we be in 40 years?



The Smithsonian magazine is marking its 40th anniversary with a special issue that tells us 40 things we need to know about the next 40 years.

The issue covers the environment, population issues, medicine and science, arts and culture, and technology. Scientists, experts and thinkers predict that by 2050, jellyfish will have taken over our oceans, electric cars will be given away for free, World War III will be fought in space, and medical innovations will enable us to regrow severed limbs. President Obama, who penned a short article, remains “full of hope about what the future holds.”

But what about us? Where will we be 40 years from now?

Like the president, I am rather optimistic about the state of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and queer people. By mid-century, Americans and citizens of other developed nations will be scratching their heads wondering what the big deal was about granting a minority group the same rights, privileges and standing as anyone else. We will be in the military and our families will be recognized. We will not be anxious about getting fired because we happen to be queer. We will not fear getting raped, beaten or killed because of how we look, speak or act. We will be full citizens.

Part of my hopefulness rests in changing demographics. A couple of decades from now, the generation that is most uncomfortable with non-heterosexuals will be gone, as will their antiquated notions, undue influence (especially in government and policy), and resistance. They will be replaced by people of my generation who tend to be more comfortable with difference and who have lived, worked and loved openly gay and transgender women and men.

By 2050, the United States will be home to at least 400 million people and will be far more diverse. We will have learned to live with plurality. More than 50 percent of the population will be of color: about 29 percent Hispanic, 13 percent Black, 9 percent Asian and 2 percent American Indian/Alaska Native. Immigrants and their U.S.-born descendants will account for most U.S. population growth. Countries like Mexico, China, India, the Philippines and Pakistan will lose citizens migrating to the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Spain and Italy.

This flow of people results in a flow of ideas. Those receiving immigrants will be exposed to different cultures just as those sending émigrés will also have their traditions challenged by expatriates remitting much needed dollars and Euros. Women who leave children, husbands and families to find work in another land will become empowered and expect more respect and autonomy. Queer individuals who come out and succeed away from confining and repressive families and societies will refuse to stand in the shadows and remain silent.

Ideas and culture will also spread through technology, particularly through the web and mobile devices. People in less developed and more oppressed nations will learn about equality, freedom and opportunity. The younger generation will realize that their lives are not predetermined by caste and religion. Women will demand parity. Lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender people will aspire for the freedom enjoyed by their counterparts in the West.

We are already seeing this happen, slowly but surely. Unless a major catastrophe or total economic meltdown occurs, when fear will again rule rather than reason, I think that life can only get better for all of us. Until then, we continue the struggle. We come out, we reach out, we change hearts and minds. We create the future we deserve.

You can follow Erwin on Twitter at @ErwindeLeon.

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  1. SteveMD2

    July 12, 2010 at 11:31 pm

    Unless the Talibangelicalss take over and destroy America. the same people who gave us slavery, the kkk, and segregation.

    And a very ignorant, biblical based group whose ideas got frozen hundreds of years ago.

    Get out and vote. And damn it, no matter if you are repub, dem, independent,….

    Realize that if the repubs take over big time, you can kiss america goodby.

    It happened after the Civil war. We had black senators etc. But by 1900, the KKK and the criminals of the southern religious culture had done their job. And segregation was the law of the south.

    Are you doing your part to stop the onslaught not just on gays, but on all the middle class and poor people in this nation by the republian/tea party talibangelicals.

  2. DC John

    July 13, 2010 at 8:04 am

    Some immediate thoughts….
    1-Those in their 20s will be in their 60s…if they take care of themselves.
    2-More open LBGT people in elected office.
    3-Adrian Fenty will have grown up.
    4-The Washington Blade will still be around (in some format!)
    5-The Nats will still be in last place
    6-A press release from some agency will be released saying that we are THIS close to finding an HIV cure.
    7-METRO Red Line will have been turned into a bicycle path.
    8-Rehoboth Beach will be sold to the highest bidder after all the Lingos move out.
    9-The Mall will extend to Annapolis.
    10-People will still read lists!

  3. Brigid

    July 13, 2010 at 12:02 pm

    I agree that we will probably have full legal citizenship in 40 years (marriage equality, right to serve in the military openly) and there will probably be better hate crimes legislation, too. Who knows, maybe there will even be fairer laws about what is required of trans people to be recognized as their self-identified gender by the government – an important and *basic* trans rights issue that is often overlooked by cis queers.

    But I can’t say I believe that we won’t fear being raped, beaten, or killed for who we are. Are you kidding? I’m a woman. Women gained legal citizenship a long time ago. But I, and many other women, still legitimately fear being raped just for being women. Men and women of color have full legal rights in this country, but institutional racism still exists and people of color are much more likely to be victims of violent crimes than white people are.

    This is not to say that queer issues are the same as race issues or gender issues (except where queer issues ARE gender issues), but to point out that in other situations where socially and legally marginalized groups have attained full legal citizenship, social acceptance and safety has not necessarily followed. Will our lives be safer and freer in 40 years? Probably. But will America be queer heaven on earth? Most assuredly not. And as a middle-class white queer cis woman, I think it’s important that people like me remember that poorer queers, queers of color, and trans people do not automatically reap as many benefits of progressive legislation as we do.

  4. Doctor Whom

    July 14, 2010 at 6:02 pm

    Conservatives and Christians will do what they do best — namely, rewrite history — to say that they were always on our side. They will then say how outrageous it is to compare gay rights to rights for whatever people they hate then.

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The Washington Blade was founded in 1969 and is known as the “newspaper of record” for the LGBT community both locally and nationally. Visit for more information. Azer Creative is a full-service graphic design firm based in Washington, D.C. Visit for more information. 

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