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Predictions for 2024 D.C. real estate market

Declining interest rates and low inventory likely

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Experts predict that inventory of homes for sale in the D.C. market will remain low in 2024 as interest rates decline.

As we head into 2024 with hopes of our weight dropping, one thing we are seeing, that is actually happening, is mortgage rates are dropping. 

For obvious reasons it is hard to predict what 2024 holds for mortgage rates and market stability. I prefer to collect a few top-notch professionals and then sprinkle in some Bravo. For this article, we will take a look at predictions from Fannie Mae, one of the large players in the mortgage industry. Next we will take a look at what the National Association of Realtors has to say (NAR) and finally…we will mix in some of Ryan Serhants two cents. I enjoy Ryan mainly because he has gray hair like I do.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the two largest players in the mortgage industry and as such, I always like to take a look at their projections as they trend toward truth. Fannie Mae predicts that the average rate will be right around 6.7% with a strong belief that they will not fall below six percent. Obviously that is not the 3% we were seeing during the pandemic, but we were seeing a lot during the pandemic that most of us don’t want to see again. More importantly Fannie Mae predicts that the housing market will remain compressed as the low inventory levels remain in full effect. On the flip side, they do project that home prices will increase by 2.4% compared to last year and this is likely the perfect storm combo of lower, more manageable rates, combined with consistently low inventory. Simple supply and demand will raise home prices. This is an interesting take away because most buyers believe that the market is returning to pre-pandemic prices but projections tell us that is not the case.

The next heavy hitter we are going to take a look at is the National Association of Realtors. Aside from all of their bad press as of late – we are simply looking at their projections for 2024 as these are historically pretty spot on. For starters, NAR is predicting that the number of national home sales will increase by nearly 14% compared to 2023, which is a massive increase when taking a look at the interest rates. NAR believes that the national average home price will pretty much stay the same, however with the lowered interest rate when looking at last year, this will indeed help with home ownership affordability for this year. Similarly to Fannie Mae, NAR believes the mortgage rate to be lowest at 6.3% while that is not what they believe to be the average rate.

Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, Ryan Serhant from ‘Million Dollar Listing N.Y.’ For starters, Ryan relies heavily on the reminder that not long ago we were in the uncharted times of COVID. Much of our lives, industries, and the world have been changed and while some things have returned to normal, we truly won’t see the correction for other things happening for quite some time, if ever. One of those markets being the real estate market, which likely won’t correct for some time. One of the reasons is the high number of remote workers. While some of us have returned to our offices and water cooler chit chat, a large number of employers are still riding high on the lack of office space and tighter margins. As such, many buyers are looking at markets outside of metro areas that are a bit more affordable. Serhant predicts that in 2024 this trend will continue and while there won’t be a huge mass exodus from metro areas, there will be an increase in those markets with some tumbleweeds. He also predicts, similarly, that suburbs will see a large increase in interest as city dwellers want yards and a garage and some more space to stretch out. One powerful take away from Serhant is this quote: “Remember, markets shouldn’t dictate your outcomes. They should only dictate your strategy.”

To take a few paragraphs and summarize them while curating for our D.C. metro market I would say the following predictions should be heavily weighted. In 2024, we will see an increase in home sales across the D.C. area with focus on more suburban and rural areas where buyers get a little more space for their dollars as well as a longer term investment. Think Gaithersburg, Upper Marlboro and Bowie, and smaller towns near Middleburg. We will see mortgage rates steady out around the mid 6% range, which will make home buying more affordable for lots of folks. Unfortunately we will also see inventory levels remain lower than average with new inventory slower to launch on the market. When looking at the simple understanding of supply and demand, we have lower interest rates, which means more buyers will return to the market that had previously left due to being priced out, combining that with the consistent low inventory will likely cause a greater demand that we saw in 2023 in our market which will result in a stable and strong real estate for 2024.

One surefire way to make sure you are geared up and ready for the real estate market is to work alongside a real estate agent that has their pulse on the local market you wish to transact in as well as an understanding of current economic times. I also have a list of great personal trainers if you want to work on that other 2024 resolution.

Justin Noble is a Realtor with Sotheby’s international Realty licensed in D.C., Maryland, and Delaware for your DMV and Delaware Beach needs. Specializing in first-time homebuyers, development and new construction as well as estate sales, Justin is a well-versed agent, highly regarded, and provides white glove service at every price point. Reach him at 202-503-4243, [email protected] or BurnsandNoble.com.

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Real Estate

Tips for buying a house in Rehoboth Beach

And why it’s a great fit for the LGBTQ community

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Rehoboth Beach, Del. (Washington Blade photo by Daniel Truitt)

If you’ve ever dreamed of owning a charming beach house where flip-flops are considered formalwear and sunsets are your daily entertainment, Rehoboth Beach, Del., might just be your dream come true. It’s not just a beautiful coastal town—it’s also a long celebrated safe haven and vibrant hub for the LGBTQ community. Let’s dive into why Rehoboth Beach is a fabulous choice and how to make a savvy beach house purchase.

Why Rehoboth Is a Vibe (especially for the LGBTQ community)

1. A Welcoming, Inclusive Community

Rehoboth Beach has been lovingly nicknamed the “Nation’s Summer Capital,” and it’s not just because of its proximity to D.C. For decades, Rehoboth has built a reputation as a warm, inclusive, and LGBTQ-friendly destination. From gay-owned businesses to LGBTQ events and nightlife, this is a town where you can truly be yourself.

2. Packed Social Calendar

Poodle Beach, the LGBTQ beach hangout just south of the boardwalk, is always buzzing in the summer. Events like Rehoboth Beach Bear Weekend, Women’s FEST, and CAMP Rehoboth’s myriad of social and wellness events bring people together all year round. That’s right—you’ll never be bored here unless you want to be.

3. Small Town Charm Meets Big City Culture

You get art galleries, drag brunches, live theater, eclectic cuisine, and adorable boutiques—basically everything your soul craves—without the chaos and crowds of major cities. It’s quaint but never boring. Think: Key West vibes with a Delaware zip code.

Tips for Buying Your Dream Beach House 

1. Know Your Budget and Think Long Term. Beachfront and near-beach properties come at a premium. Expect to pay a bit more for proximity to the sand and ocean views. 

2. Choose Your Neighborhood Wisely. Do you want to be walking distance from the action on the boardwalk? Or do you prefer something more secluded in areas like North Shores or Henlopen Acres?

3. Rental Potential. If you’re not living there full time, your beach house could work overtime as a vacation rental. Rehoboth Beach has a healthy short-term rental market, especially in peak summer. Often times LGBTQ travelers actively seek inclusive, affirming places to stay.

4. Weather the Weather. Like all coastal areas, Rehoboth comes with a side of salt air and occasional storms. Invest in a good home inspection, especially for older homes, and be prepared for the maintenance that comes with beachfront living (yes, that includes sand everywhere).

5. Work With a Local Real Estate Agent. Look for an agent who knows Rehoboth inside and out and understands the unique needs of LGBTQ buyers. This isn’t just a house — it’s your happy place. You want someone who sees that and says, “Let’s find your sanctuary.”

Buying a beach house in Rehoboth Beach isn’t just about real estate — it’s about finding a space that reflects your lifestyle, values, and need for both community and calm. Whether it becomes your full-time home, your weekend escape, or your Airbnb side hustle, Rehoboth welcomes you with open arms (and maybe a mimosa).

Want personalized tips on navigating the Rehoboth Beach real estate market? Let’s chat! I’ll bring the listings if you bring the sunscreen. 


Justin Noble is a Realtor with The Burns & Noble Group with Sotheby’s International Realty, licensed in D.C., Maryland, and Delaware. Reach him at [email protected] or 202-234-3344.

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Real Estate

Impact of federal gov’t RIF on D.C.’s rental market

A seismic economic change for local property owners

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President Trump’s plan to cut the federal workforce presents challenges to local landlords. (Washington Blade file photo by Michael Key)

In a move that could redefine the federal government workforce and reshape the economic fabric of Washington, D.C., President Donald Trump has announced his intentions to significantly reduce federal government spending as well as the number of people the federal government employs.

Calling the federal bureaucracy “bloated” and “out of control,” Trump has repeatedly expressed his desire to cut thousands of federal jobs. While these cuts align with his long-standing push to “drain the swamp,” they come with potential and real collateral damage, especially for landlords in the D.C. area who have relied on government employees as some of their most reliable and long-term tenants.

The potential reduction of thousands of jobs in a city built around government work is not just a political shift—it’s a seismic economic change for the city government as well as for local property owners who have invested in the predictability of a near-constant demand for workers in the federal government agencies, government contractors and the economic ecosystem they sustain. 

For landlords, government workers have represented ideal tenants: strong income, long-term leases, and responsible rental histories. Now, that foundation is being shaken in a battle by the Administration against a workforce which is the backbone of the Washington area’s overall economy, and especially its rental market.

With uncertainty looming, landlords are left in a difficult position. If widespread layoffs come to fruition, rental vacancies could spike, rental prices would drop, and previously secure investment properties might become financial liabilities. The sudden shift forces landlords to consider their next moves: how to support tenants facing job losses, how to adapt to a changing market, and how to ensure their own financial stability amid the uncertainty.

For D.C. landlords, this isn’t just about policy shifts or budget cuts, it’s about economic livelihood. The challenge ahead isn’t about just reacting to change, but proactively preparing for it, ensuring they can weather the storm of political maneuvering.

Potential Consequences for D.C. Landlords

  1. 1. Increased Risk of Non-Payment of Rent
    • Job losses may lead to late or missed rent payments
    • As affected tenants struggle financially, they may ask to break their lease to live elsewhere or even move out of the region
    • Eviction lawsuits may rise, leading to a long and expensive process for landlords, all while not being able to rent their property to paying tenants.
  1. 2. Higher Vacancy Rates
  1. If many government employees leave the D.C. region in search of work elsewhere, the rental demand could decline significantly
  2. Rental properties may sit empty longer, requiring landlords to lower rents to attract new tenants and creating even more financial loss

3. More Competition from Other Landlords

  1. As many more units are vacant on the market, all competing for the same pool of potential tenants, older and smaller rentals, and those located further out from the core of the city will all struggle to find quality renters.
  2. Landlords will need to offer other ways to attract and retain tenants, such as incentives, which could quickly overwhelm the finances of smaller landlords who cannot keep up.

Proactive Strategies for Landlords

To mitigate risks and ensure future rental success, landlords should consider these defensive measures:

1. Strengthen Tenant Relationships and Communication

  • Encourage tenants to communicate if they anticipate financial hardship due to job loss.
  • Work out temporary payment plans or partial payments to prevent full non-payment or eviction.
  • Provide guidance on rental assistance programs available in D.C.

2. Offer Flexible Lease Terms

  • Consider shorter-term leases than a full 12-month term to accommodate the needs of tenants who may be uncertain about their long-term employment status.
  • Offer lease renewals at the same rent amount to keep stable tenants and avoid turnover

3. Diversify Tenant Base

  • If a large portion of tenants are government workers, a landlord may want to market to a broader audience or professionals in private industries.
  • Advertise on platforms that cater to diverse tenant pools, including students and international workers.

4. Adjust Screening Criteria Thoughtfully

  • While it’s important to ensure financial stability, consider creditworthiness, assets, and rental history rather than just employment status.
  • Consider alternative income sources, like family members assisting, part-time work or freelance gigs.

5. Protect Cash Flow with Rent Guarantee Options

  • Explore rental insurance policies or rent guarantee services to cover losses in case of non-payment.
  • Consider co-signers or guarantors on leases for new tenants in vulnerable industries, just in case.

6. Adjust Rental Pricing to Stay Competitive

  • Monitor the D.C. rental market and adjust pricing accordingly to attract new tenants.
  • Consider offering move-in incentives as a way to stand out.  Be creative!  Sometimes things you can offer are different and may catch someone’s eye

Long-Term Planning for Rental Success

  • Build reserves to cover expenses during potential vacancies or rent shortfalls.
  • Invest in property upgrades to make rentals more attractive to a broader audience, such as young professionals or remote workers.
  • Consider diversifying property holdings to include areas that are less reliant on government employment.

By taking proactive steps, landlords can safeguard their investments while supporting tenants through economic uncertainty, ultimately leading to a more stable and resilient rental business.


Scott Bloom is owner and senior property manager at Columbia Property Management. For more information, visit ColumbiaPM.com.

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Hidden hazards at home

Professional inspections can help catch safety issues early

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Test smoke detectors monthly and change batteries at least once a year. (Photo by Phonlamaiphoto/Bigstock)

As the spring market hits its stride, we are beginning to see more inventory and an increase in days on the market in parts of the DMV. This may result in professional home inspections becoming routine parts of contract offers again. A thorough home inspection can help catch safety issues early and is an opportunity to learn about the operation and maintenance of items in your home.

Pay attention to flickering lights, frequently tripped breakers, and discolored outlets—these are signs of potential electrical hazards. Outdated wiring, overloaded outlets, and faulty appliances can lead to electrical fires. 

Structural issues are often overlooked until it’s too late. Crumbling foundations, weak or damaged stairs, loose railings, and uneven flooring can cause trips and falls. Water damage from leaks or flooding can weaken the integrity of floors and walls, creating a risk of collapse. 

Toxic chemicals can pose serious threats to health and safety, often without obvious warning signs. Understanding and addressing these risks is crucial for maintaining a safe living environment for you and your loved ones.

Household products such as cleaners, pesticides, air fresheners, and even cosmetics can emit volatile organic compounds (VOCs). These compounds, when inhaled regularly, can cause a range of health issues including headaches, respiratory problems, hormonal disruptions, and in some cases, even cancer. To minimize these risks, homeowners should opt for low-VOC or VOC-free products, ventilate regularly, and consider investing in an air purifier. 

Formaldehyde is another common toxin found in pressed wood products, insulation, and certain paints. Long-term exposure can lead to chronic respiratory problems and has been linked to cancer. 

Radon gas, another possible carcinogen, is prevalent in the DMV. Your home inspector can do a radon test or there are DIY kits available at many hardware stores. If levels are above EPA standards, a professional remediation firm can install a system that extracts the radon and vents it safely outdoors.

Carbon monoxide (CO), a colorless, odorless gas, is produced by gas stoves, heaters, and fireplaces. Exposure can lead to headaches, dizziness, nausea, and even death. Install CO detectors near bedrooms and ensure that all fuel-burning appliances are properly maintained and ventilated. 

Additionally, older homes may still contain asbestos in insulation, floor tiles, or roofing materials. If disturbed, asbestos fibers can become airborne and are highly dangerous when inhaled, leading to serious diseases such as mesothelioma, so when renovating an older home, it’s critical to have materials tested for asbestos before beginning work.

Mold and mildew thrive in damp, poorly ventilated areas such as bathrooms, basements, and around leaky pipes. While some molds are harmless, others can cause allergic reactions or respiratory problems and aggravate conditions such as asthma. Black mold (Stachybotrys chartarum) is notorious for producing mycotoxins that may lead to severe health issues.

Signs of mold include musty odors, visible growth on walls or ceilings, and excessive humidity. Preventing mold growth requires controlling moisture levels—using dehumidifiers and vapor barriers, fixing leaks promptly, and ensuring adequate ventilation. Professional mold remediation may be necessary for severe infestations.

Though banned in residential paints in 1978, lead-based paint still exists in millions of older homes. Lead exposure is especially dangerous for children, causing developmental delays, learning difficulties, and behavioral issues. Adults are not immune – lead can lead to high blood pressure, kidney damage, and reproductive problems.

Even dust from deteriorating lead-based paint can be hazardous. The EPA recommends professional lead testing for any home built before 1978, especially if renovations are planned. Certified abatement professionals can safely remove or encapsulate lead paint.

Improper use of heating equipment, fireplaces, unattended candles, and cooking accidents are common sources of home fires. Smoke alarms and fire extinguishers are essential for early detection and response. Test smoke detectors monthly and change batteries at least once a year.

Homes that are safe for adults may not be safe for children or pets. Small objects, unsecured cabinets, toxic plants, and open staircases can pose significant risks. Childproofing measures such as outlet covers, safety gates, and cabinet locks, along with safe storage of chemicals and medications, are essential precautions.

The good news is that many of these risks can be mitigated with awareness and action. Here are a few simple steps to enhance home safety:

• Conduct a thorough safety audit using checklists available online.

• Ensure proper ventilation to reduce indoor air pollutants.

• Regularly check for leaks and signs of water damage.

• Keep cleaning and chemical products out of reach of children.

• Educate all household members about emergency procedures, including fire escapes and first aid.

Our homes should protect us, not pose threats to our well-being. By identifying and addressing these toxic and unsafe issues, we can transform our living spaces into truly safe havens.


Valerie M. Blake is a licensed Associate Broker in D.C., Maryland, and Virginia with RLAH @properties. Call or text her at 202-246-8602, email her via DCHomeQuest.com, or follow her on Facebook at TheRealst8ofAffairs.

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