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Early polls show Biden, Dems face uphill fight

President losing support among Latino, Black, young voters

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President Joe Biden (Photo by palinchik/Bigstock)

With the holidays behind us and the Iowa caucuses less than two weeks away, the nation’s attention is turning toward this year’s presidential election as new polls suggest President Biden and the Democrats face uphill battles to victory.

On the heels of the new numbers, top Biden-Harris reelection campaign officials hosted a press call on Tuesday to preview some steps they will take as part of what Campaign Manager Julie Chávez Rodriguez called an “aggressive push in early 2024 to mobilize the winning coalition that will reelect” the president and vice president.

According to a USA Today/Suffolk University poll released Monday, the president is, as Fox News wrote, “hemorrhaging support from Black, Hispanic and young voters.” Among those first two groups, compared with data from 2020 captured by Pew Research, the poll showed Biden’s support down a respective 29 and 25 percentage points.

Among voters younger than 35, meanwhile, the data showed him trailing former President Donald Trump by four points. The younger demographic was instrumental in delivering him the White House in 2020.

The findings come with important caveats. For example, to the extent that support for Biden has eroded, the numbers suggest a greater embrace of third-party candidates rather than movement in the direction of Trump.

However, 44 percent of Trump voters ranked their enthusiasm for his candidacy at a 10 out of 10, versus just 18 percent of Biden supporters.

A survey released by Gallup at the end of December found Biden’s approval rating hovering around 39 percent.

Gallup notes that former Presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump had slightly higher ratings heading into the year they sought reelection, 43 and 45 percent, respectively, while all of the other past seven presidents were above 50 percent at this point in their tenures.

Another survey, which was released on Monday by The Washington Post/University of Maryland, found that one-third of U.S. adults believe that Biden was not legitimately elected president of the United States in 2020.

The survey was meant to explore evolving views about the deadly ransacking of the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters on Jan. 6, 2021. On that topic, opinion is moving “in a more sympathetic direction to Trump and those who stormed the Capitol” according to the Post.

At the same time, the paper wrote, “most Americans have not bought into that revised version of events” and Jan. 6 remains a political liability for the former president heading into 2024. For example, most Republicans said they believe punishments for those who breached the Capitol were either “fair” (37 percent) or “not harsh enough” (17 percent).

As they gear up for the months ahead, it looks like the Biden campaign is betting that Jan. 6 will be a sticking point for voters, and an illustration of the contrast between the candidates’ visions for America.

Biden campaign focusing on the contrast


“On election day in 2020, Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump by more than 7 million votes and got more votes than any presidential candidate in history,” Chávez Rodriguez said. “On Jan. 6 2021, we witnessed a very different vision of America — one defined by revenge, retribution, and a rebuke of our very democracy.”

“When Joe Biden ran for president four years ago, he said we are in the battle for the soul of America,” she said. “And as we look towards November 2024, we still are. The threat Donald Trump posed in 2020 to American democracy has only grown more dire in the years since. There’s less than two weeks until GOP primary voters began casting ballots in Iowa and former President Donald Trump’s extreme and dangerous MAGA agenda continues to define the Republican Party.”

“The choice for voters next year will not simply be between competing philosophies of governing,” Chávez Rodriguez said. “The choice for the American people in November 2024 will be about protecting our democracy and every American’s fundamental freedoms.”

The campaign’s Communications Director Michael Tyler later told reporters, “If reelected, Donald Trump will use all of his power to systematically dismantle and destroy our democracy.”

“He wants to end free and fair elections altogether, is promising to rule as a dictator and use the government to exact retribution on his political enemies, all while he and his MAGA supporters encourage and applaud political violence across the country,” Tyler said.

He noted the Post’s poll about Jan. 6, highlighting that respondents said the insurrection was an attack on democracy that should never be forgotten, and an event for which Trump bore responsibility.

Biden team outlines early 2024 plans

“The threat that Donald Trump posed in 2020 to American democracy has grown even more dangerous than it was when President Biden ran last time,” Principal Deputy Campaign Manager Quentin Fulks said during the call. “That’s why we’re hitting the ground early. We’re running hard this year to bring the message directly to voters who will decide this election.”

This will begin, Fulks said, with an address by Biden on Saturday, Jan. 6 near Valley Forge, Pa., a historic site with important ties to the American Revolution. “There, the president will make the case directly that democracy and freedom — two powerful ideas that united the 13 colonies and that generations throughout our nation’s history have fought and died for, a stone’s throw from where he’ll be on Saturday — remains central to the fight we’re in today.”

Biden will then head to South Carolina on Jan. 8, for a visit to Mother Emmanuel AME Church in Charleston, Fulks said, the site where a white supremacist murdered nine Black churchgoers in 2015.

He said Vice President Kamala Harris will also be in Charleston on Saturday for an appearance at the 7th Episcopal District AME Church Women’s Missionary Society annual retreat to discuss the attacks on freedoms in states across the country.

“And on the anniversary of Roe v Wade later this month on Jan. 22, Vice President Harris will kick off her official reproductive freedoms tour in Wisconsin,” Fulks said, “where she’ll highlight the chaos and cruelty created by Trump all across the country when it comes to women’s health care.”

Harris will be joined “in full force,” he said, by “the entirety of our campaign” on that anniversary.

“The rest of 2024 will be no different as we will continue scaling up our operation and taking our message to the American people,” Fulks said. “We’re entering the election year with significant resources thanks to a historic 2023 fundraising operation, including a strong Q4 powered by consistent and stronger than expected grassroots support.”

Fulks said this will mean expanding programs across states, hiring leadership teams “in every battleground state,” and dedicating thousands of staff to “talking to our voters early and often” while implementing new organizing efforts.

Finally, he said, “we’re going to continue to scale up our paid media program including a new paid media investment we will announce ahead of the president’s speech near Valley Forge on Saturday.”

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After Biden signs TikTok ban its CEO vows federal court battle

“Rest assured, we aren’t going anywhere,” CEO said

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TikTok mobile phone app. (Screenshot/YouTube)

President Joe Biden signed an appropriations bill into law on Wednesday that provides multi-billion dollar funding and military aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan after months of delay and Congressional infighting.

A separate bill Biden signed within the aid package contained a bipartisan provision that will ban the popular social media app TikTok from the United States if its Chinese parent company ByteDance does not sell off the American subsidiary.

Reacting, TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew said Wednesday that the Culver City, Calif.-based company would go to court to try to remain online in the U.S.

In a video posted on the company’s social media accounts, Chew denounced the potential ban: “Make no mistake, this is a ban, a ban of TikTok and a ban on you and your voice,” Chew said. “Rest assured, we aren’t going anywhere. We are confident and we will keep fighting for your rights in the courts. The facts and the constitution are on our side, and we expect to prevail,” he added.

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre adamantly denied during a press briefing on Wednesday that the bill constitutes a ban, reiterating the administration’s hope that TikTok will be purchased by a third-party buyer and referencing media reports about the many firms that are interested.

Chew has repeatedly testified in both the House and Senate regarding ByteDance’s ability to mine personal data of its 170 million plus American subscribers, maintaining that user data is secure and not shared with either ByteDance nor agencies of the Chinese government. The testimony failed to assuage lawmakers’ doubts.

In an email, the former chair of the House Intelligence Committee, U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), who doesn’t support a blanket ban of the app, told the Washington Blade:

“As the former chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, I have long worked to safeguard Americans’ freedoms and security both at home and abroad. The Chinese Communist Party’s ability to exploit private user data and to manipulate public opinion through TikTok present serious national security concerns. For that reason, I believe that divestiture presents the best option to preserve access to the platform, while ameliorating these risks. I do not support a ban on TikTok while there are other less restrictive means available, and this legislation will give the administration the leverage and authority to require divestiture.”

A spokesperson for U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) told the Blade: “Senator Padilla believes we can support speech and creativity while also protecting data privacy and security. TikTok’s relationship to the Chinese Communist Party poses significant data privacy concerns. He will continue working with the Biden-Harris administration and his colleagues in Congress to safeguard Americans’ data privacy and foster continued innovation.”

The law, which gives ByteDance 270 days to divest TikTok’s U.S. assets, expires with a January 19, 2025 deadline for a sale. The date is one day before Biden’s term is set to expire, although he could extend the deadline by three months if he determines ByteDance is making progress or the transaction faces uncertainty in a federal court.

Former President Donald Trump’s executive order in 2020, which sought to ban TikTok and Chinese-owned WeChat, a unit of Beijing-based Tencent, in the U.S., was blocked by federal courts.

TikTok has previously fought efforts to ban its widely popular app by the state of Montana last year, in a case that saw a federal judge in Helena block that state ban, citing free-speech grounds.

The South China Morning Post reported this week that the four-year battle over TikTok is a significant front in a war over the internet and technology between Washington and Beijing. Last week, Apple said China had ordered it to remove Meta Platforms’s WhatsApp and Threads from its App Store in China over Chinese national security concerns.

A spokesperson for the ACLU told the Blade in a statement that “banning or requiring divestiture of TikTok would set an alarming global precedent for excessive government control over social media platforms.”

LGBTQ TikToker users are alarmed, fearing that a ban will represent the disruption of networks of support and activism. However, queer social media influencers who operate on multiple platforms expressed some doubts as to long term impact.

Los Angeles Blade contributor Chris Stanley told the Blade:

“It might affect us slightly, because TikTok is so easy to go viral on. Which obviously means more brand deals, etc. However they also suppress and shadow ban LGBTQ creators frequently. But we will definitely be focusing our energy more on other platforms with this uncertainty going forward. Lucky for us, we aren’t one trick ponies and have multiple other platforms built.”

Brooklyn, N.Y.,-based gay social media creator and influencer Artem Bezrukavenko told the Blade:

“For smart creators it won’t because they have multiple platforms. For people who put all their livelihood yes. Like people who do livestreams,” he said adding: “Personally I’m happy it gets banned or American company will own it so they will be less homophobic to us.”

TikTok’s LGBTQ following has generally positive experiences although there have been widely reported instances of users, notably transgender users, seemingly targeted by the platform’s algorithms and having their accounts banned or repeatedly suspended.

Of greater concern is the staggering rise in anti-LGBTQ violence and threats on the platform prompting LGBTQ advocacy group GLAAD, in its annual Social Media Safety Index, to give TikTok a failing score on LGBTQ safety.

Additional reporting by Christopher Kane

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Smithsonian staff concerned about future of LGBTQ programming amid GOP scrutiny

Secretary Lonnie Bunch says ‘LGBTQ+ content is welcome’

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Lonnie G. Bunch III, secretary of the Smithsonian Institution, appears before a Dec. 2023 hearing of the U.S. Committee on House Administration (Screen capture: Forbes/YouTube)

Staff at the Smithsonian Institution are concerned about the future of LGBTQ programming as several events featuring a drag performer were cancelled or postponed following scrutiny by House Republicans, according to emails reviewed by the Washington Post.

In December, Secretary Lonnie G. Bunch III appeared before a hearing led by GOP members of the Committee on House Administration, who flagged concerns about the Smithsonian’s involvement in “the Left’s indoctrination of our children.”

Under questioning from U.S. Rep. Stephanie Bice (R-Okla.), Bunch said he was “surprised” to learn the Smithsonian had hosted six drag events over the past three years, telling the lawmakers “It’s not appropriate to expose children” to these performances.

Collaborations with drag artist Pattie Gonia in December, January, and March were subsequently postponed or cancelled, the Post reported on Saturday, adding that a Smithsonian spokesperson blamed “budgetary constraints and other resource issues” and the museums are still developing programming for Pride month in June.

“I, along with all senior leaders, take seriously the concerns expressed by staff and will continue to do so,” Bunch said in a statement to the paper. “As we have reiterated, LGBTQ+ content is welcome at the Smithsonian.”

The secretary sent an email on Friday expressing plans to meet with leaders of the Smithsonian Pride Alliance, one of the two groups that detailed their concerns to him following December’s hearing.

Bunch told the Pride Alliance in January that with his response to Bice’s question, his intention was to “immediately stress that the Smithsonian does not expose children to inappropriate content.”

“A hearing setting does not give you ample time to expand,” he said, adding that with more time he would have spoken “more broadly about the merits and goals of our programming and content development and how we equip parents to make choices about what content their children experience.”

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Survey finds support for Biden among LGBTQ adults persists despite misgivings

Data for Progress previewed the results exclusively with the Blade

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Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden (Washington Blade photo by Michael Key)

A new survey by Data for Progress found LGBTQ adults overwhelmingly favor President Joe Biden and Democrats over his 2024 rival former President Donald Trump and Republicans, but responses to other questions may signal potential headwinds for Biden’s reelection campaign.

The organization shared the findings of its poll, which included 873 respondents from across the country including an oversample of transgender adults, exclusively with the Washington Blade on Thursday.

Despite the clear margin of support for the president, with only 22 percent of respondents reporting that they have a very favorable or somewhat favorable opinion of Trump, answers were more mixed when it came to assessments of Biden’s performance over the past four years and his party’s record of protecting queer and trans Americans.

Forty-five percent of respondents said the Biden-Harris administration has performed better than they expected, while 47 percent said the administration’s record has been worse than they anticipated. A greater margin of trans adults in the survey — 52 vs. 37 percent — said their expectations were not met.

Seventy precent of all LGBTQ respondents and 81 percent of those who identify as trans said the Democratic Party should be doing more for queer and trans folks, while just 24 percent of all survey participants and 17 percent of trans participants agreed the party is already doing enough.

With respect to the issues respondents care about the most when deciding between the candidates on their ballots, LGBTQ issues were second only to the economy, eclipsing other considerations like abortion and threats to democracy.

These answers may reflect heightened fear and anxiety among LGBTQ adults as a consequence of the dramatic uptick over the past few years in rhetorical, legislative, and violent bias-motivated attacks against the community, especially targeting queer and trans folks.

The survey found that while LGBTQ adults are highly motivated to vote in November, there are signs of ennui. For example, enthusiasm was substantially lower among those aged 18 to 24 and 25 to 39 compared with adults 40 and older. And a plurality of younger LGBTQ respondents said they believe that neither of the country’s two major political parties care about them.

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