Politics
Early polls show Biden, Dems face uphill fight
President losing support among Latino, Black, young voters
With the holidays behind us and the Iowa caucuses less than two weeks away, the nation’s attention is turning toward this year’s presidential election as new polls suggest President Biden and the Democrats face uphill battles to victory.
On the heels of the new numbers, top Biden-Harris reelection campaign officials hosted a press call on Tuesday to preview some steps they will take as part of what Campaign Manager Julie ChĆ”vez Rodriguez called an “aggressive push in early 2024 to mobilize the winning coalition that will reelect” the president and vice president.
According to aĀ USA Today/Suffolk University pollĀ released Monday, the president is, as Fox News wrote, “hemorrhaging support from Black, Hispanic and young voters.” Among those first two groups, compared with data from 2020 captured by Pew Research, the poll showed Biden’s support down a respective 29 and 25 percentage points.
Among voters younger than 35, meanwhile, the data showed him trailing former President Donald Trump by four points. The younger demographic was instrumental in delivering him the White House in 2020.
The findings come with important caveats. For example, to the extent that support for Biden has eroded, the numbers suggest a greater embrace of third-party candidates rather than movement in the direction of Trump.
However, 44 percent of Trump voters ranked their enthusiasm for his candidacy at a 10 out of 10, versus just 18 percent of Biden supporters.
A survey released by Gallup at the end of December found Biden’s approval rating hovering around 39 percent.
Gallup notes that former Presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump had slightly higher ratings heading into the year they sought reelection, 43 and 45 percent, respectively, while all of the other past seven presidents were above 50 percent at this point in their tenures.
Another survey, which was released on Monday by The Washington Post/University of Maryland, found that one-third of U.S. adults believe that Biden was not legitimately elected president of the United States in 2020.
The survey was meant to explore evolving views about the deadly ransacking of the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters on Jan. 6, 2021. On that topic, opinion is moving “in a more sympathetic direction to Trump and those who stormed the Capitol” according to the Post.
At the same time, the paper wrote, “most Americans have not bought into that revised version of events” and Jan. 6 remains a political liability for the former president heading into 2024. For example, most Republicans said they believe punishments for those who breached the Capitol were either āfairā (37 percent) or ānot harsh enoughā (17 percent).
As they gear up for the months ahead, it looks like the Biden campaign is betting that Jan. 6 will be a sticking point for voters, and an illustration of the contrast between the candidates’ visions for America.
Biden campaign focusing on the contrast
“On election day in 2020, Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump by more than 7 million votes and got more votes than any presidential candidate in history,” ChĆ”vez Rodriguez said. “On Jan. 6 2021, we witnessed a very different vision of America ā one defined by revenge, retribution, and a rebuke of our very democracy.”
“When Joe Biden ran for president four years ago, he said we are in the battle for the soul of America,” she said. “And as we look towards November 2024, we still are. The threat Donald Trump posed in 2020 to American democracy has only grown more dire in the years since. There’s less than two weeks until GOP primary voters began casting ballots in Iowa and former President Donald Trump’s extreme and dangerous MAGA agenda continues to define the Republican Party.”
“The choice for voters next year will not simply be between competing philosophies of governing,” ChĆ”vez Rodriguez said. “The choice for the American people in November 2024 will be about protecting our democracy and every American’s fundamental freedoms.”
The campaign’s Communications Director Michael Tyler later told reporters, “If reelected, Donald Trump will use all of his power to systematically dismantle and destroy our democracy.”
“He wants to end free and fair elections altogether, is promising to rule as a dictator and use the government to exact retribution on his political enemies, all while he and his MAGA supporters encourage and applaud political violence across the country,” Tyler said.
He noted the Post’s poll about Jan. 6, highlighting that respondents said the insurrection was an attack on democracy that should never be forgotten, and an event for which Trump bore responsibility.
Biden team outlines early 2024 plans
“The threat that Donald Trump posed in 2020 to American democracy has grown even more dangerous than it was when President Biden ran last time,” Principal Deputy Campaign Manager Quentin Fulks said during the call. “That’s why we’re hitting the ground early. We’re running hard this year to bring the message directly to voters who will decide this election.”
This will begin, Fulks said, with an address by Biden on Saturday, Jan. 6 near Valley Forge, Pa., a historic site with important ties to the American Revolution. “There, the president will make the case directly that democracy and freedom ā two powerful ideas that united the 13 colonies and that generations throughout our nation’s history have fought and died for, a stone’s throw from where he’ll be on Saturday ā remains central to the fight we’re in today.”
Biden will then head to South Carolina on Jan. 8, for a visit to Mother Emmanuel AME Church in Charleston, Fulks said, the site where a white supremacist murdered nine Black churchgoers in 2015.
He said Vice President Kamala Harris will also be in Charleston on Saturday for an appearance at the 7th Episcopal District AME Church Women’s Missionary Society annual retreat to discuss the attacks on freedoms in states across the country.
“And on the anniversary of Roe v Wade later this month on Jan. 22, Vice President Harris will kick off her official reproductive freedoms tour in Wisconsin,” Fulks said, “where she’ll highlight the chaos and cruelty created by Trump all across the country when it comes to women’s health care.”
Harris will be joined “in full force,” he said, by “the entirety of our campaign” on that anniversary.
“The rest of 2024 will be no different as we will continue scaling up our operation and taking our message to the American people,” Fulks said. “We’re entering the election year with significant resources thanks to a historic 2023 fundraising operation, including a strong Q4 powered by consistent and stronger than expected grassroots support.”
Fulks said this will mean expanding programs across states, hiring leadership teams “in every battleground state,” and dedicating thousands of staff to “talking to our voters early and often” while implementing new organizing efforts.
Finally, he said, “we’re going to continue to scale up our paid media program including a new paid media investment we will announce ahead of the president’s speech near Valley Forge on Saturday.”
Politics
Tammy Baldwin wins reelection in exceptionally close Senate race
Will be the only LGBTQ voice in the upper chamber
U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) declared victory over Republican challenger Eric Hovde Wednesday morning, leading him by a margin of 49.4 to 48.5 percent.
āIt is clear that the voters have spoken and our campaign has won,ā she said in a statement.Ā āThe people of Wisconsin have chosen someone who always puts Wisconsin first, someone who shows up, listens, and works with everyone to get the job done.”
Serving as the first openly LGBTQ senator following her election in 2012ā as well as the first non-incumbent LGBTQ member elected to the House, where she represented Wisconsinās 2nd Congressional District from 1999 to 2013 ā Baldwin was targeted with homophobic and anti-trans attack ads by her Republican rival, businessman Eric Hovde, during the 2024 cycle.
A critically important voice for the community, Baldwin was instrumental in the Senate’s passage of the Respect for Marriage Act in 2022, which codified legal protections for married same-sex couples.
Following the departure of U.S. Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) and Laphonza Butler (D-Calif.) in January, Baldwin will be the only LGBTQ voice in the chamber.
The LGBTQ Victory Fund, which works to elect LGBTQ candidates for public office, likely spent more on Baldwin’s race than any other contest this year, the organization’s vice president of political programs told the Washington Blade last month.
Virginia state Sen. Suhas Subramanyam and Eugene Vindman on Tuesday won their respective congressional races.
Subramanyam defeated Republican Mike Clancy in the 10th Congressional District by a 52-48 percent margin. Subramanyan will succeed Congresswoman Jennifer Wexton, who announced last September she would not seek re-election after doctors diagnosed her with an aggressive form of Parkinsonās disease.
Vindman defeated Republican Derrick Anderson in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District by a 51-49 percent margin. Vindman will succeed outgoing Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger, who is running for governor.
Incumbent Democratic Congressmen Don Beyer and Gerry Connolly won in the state’s 8th and 11th Congressional Districts respectively.
Republican Congressman Rob Wittman won re-election in the 1st Congressional District. Ben Cline defeated Democrat Ken Mitchell in the 6th Congressional District.
Politics
LGBTQ candidates win big in D.C. election for local offices
Harris takes 90 percent of vote among city electorate
As expected, D.C.ās pro-LGBTQ Democratic incumbent and non-incumbent candidates for seats on the D.C. City Council, the D.C. Congressional Delegate seat, and the so-called āshadowā U.S. Senate and U.S. House seats won re-election on Tuesday by a wide margin in a city with an overwhelmingly Democratic electorate.
In the race for U.S. president, Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris had 90.4 percent of the D.C. vote as of the 10:53 p.m. vote count, with Republican Donald Trump receiving 6.6 percent and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receiving 0.83 percent of the D.C. vote. Kennedyās decision to withdraw his candidacy and endorse Trump came too late to have his name removed from the D.C. ballot.
Also as expected, Allister Chang, the gay member of the D.C. State Board of Education, which is a nonpartisan body, received 93.49 percent of the vote in his unopposed race for re-election to the Boardās Ward 2 seat. The election results, however, show that one or more write-in candidates received 6.5 percent of the vote.
Chang is one of two D.C. elected officials other than Advisory Neighborhood Commission members, who is a member of the LGBTQ community. D.C. Council member Zachary Parker (D-Ward 5), who was not up for re-election this year, is the other one.
The controversial D.C. election ballot measure called Initiative 83, which calls for the city to adopt a ranked choice voting system and open primaries in which independents can vote in a party primary, was approved overwhelmingly with 72.6 percent of the vote. The election results as of late Tuesday evening showed 27.3 percent of voters voted ānoā on the initiative.
LGBTQ activists were divided over whether to support or oppose Initiative 83, with the Capital Stonewall Democrats, the cityās largest local LGBTQ political group, declining to take a position on the initiative. But one of the groupās longtime members, Ward 8 gay Democratic activist Phil Pannell, served as treasurer of the committee that led the campaign for Initiative 83.
Also winning re-election by a wide margin was D.C. Congressional Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton (D), who received 80.2 percent of the vote. Challengers Kymore Freeman (Statehood-Green Party) received 6.4 percent, Myrtle Patricia Alexander (R) received 6.3 percent, and Michael A. Brown (I) received 6.2 percent.
Norton, a longtime LGBTQ rights supporter in Congress, is expected to play an important role in defending LGBTQ rights in what appears to be a Republican-controlled Congress, and a Donald Trump presidency.
Among the D.C. Council races, incumbents Robert White (D-At-Large) and Christina Henderson (I-At-Large), won re-election with 62.4 percent and 23 percent respectively. The two were challenged by Statehood Green Party candidate Daryl Moch, who received 7.5 percent of the vote, and Republican Rob Simmons, who received 6.36 percent.
Under the cityās electoral system, two of the cityās four at-large Council members or candidates run on the same ballot in separate election years, with voters allowed to vote for two candidates in that race. The highest two vote-getters are declared the winners.
In other Council races, Ward 2 Council member Brooke Pinto (D-Ward 2) who ran unopposed on the ballot, received 93.4 percent of the vote, with 6.5 percent going to one or more write-in candidates. One write-in candidate, who identified himself as Rondell Magic Jordan, put up campaign posters near Dupont Circle area gay bars in his race against incumbent Pinto, who is a longtime LGBTQ rights supporter.
Ward 4 Council member Janeese Lewis George (D), who also ran unopposed, received 96.6 percent of the vote, with 3.3 percent going to one or more write-in candidates. In the Council race for Ward 7, in which longtime LGBTQ supportive incumbent Vincent Gray did not run for re-election, Democrat Wendel Felder, received 92.7 percent of the vote, with Republican Noah Montgomery receiving 5.9 percent.
Ward 8 Council member Trayon White (D), who was indicted earlier this year on a federal bribery charge, won re-election with 76 percent of the vote. Republican challenger Nate Derenge received 14.6 percent of the vote, and one or more write-in candidates received 9.2 percent of the vote.
Democrat Ankit Jain won his race for the D.C. shadow U.S. House seat with 89.9 percent of the vote, with Republican Nelson Rimensnyder receiving 9.2 percent. Incumbent shadow U.S. Representative Oye Owolewa won re-election with 90.7 percent of the vote. Republican challenger Ciprian Ivanof received 8.5 percent.
Along with gay D.C. State Board of Education member Allister Changās election victory, At-Large State Board of Education member Jacque Patterson won re-election unopposed with 97.3 percent of the vote. Ward 7 school board member Eboni-Rose Thompson won re-election with 71 percent of the vote, with challengers Toni Crinner receiving 20.1 percent and Charles Boston receiving 7.6 percent.
Ward 8 State Board of Education candidate LaJoy Johnson ran unopposed and received 98.2 percent of the vote. The outcome of the Ward 4 State Board of Education race surprised some observers when incumbent Frazier OāLeary lost to challenger T. Michelle Colson by a margin of 54.2 percent to 44.6 percent.
If the final vote counts confirm that Republicans have won control of both houses of Congress and with Trump confirmed as the next U.S. president, D.C. officials could find themselves defending the cityās home rule government consisting of an elected mayor and City Council.
During his election campaign, Trump has hinted that he might take steps to rescind D.C.ās home rule government and restore the pre-home rule form of D.C. government in place prior to the 1970s, in which a commission nominated by the U.S. president and confirmed by Congress runs the day-to-day operations of the city. Congress would have to approve such an action.
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