National
Polling unreliable on marriage initiatives: report
Study shows campaigns do little to move voters
A new report is shedding light on the effectiveness of statewide campaigns against same-sex marriage, although the findings are raising additional questions.
The report โ which examines the trend of public opinion on same-sex marriage in 33 states that have had the issue on the ballot โ found efforts during campaign periods had very little impact on moving voters to oppose same-sex marriage bans on Election Day.
Additionally, the report found polling data gathered during campaigns on marriage initiatives is misleading because a greater percentage of people vote in favor of same-sex marriage bans than the percentage who tell pollsters they will support the ban.
Patrick Egan, author of the report and a gay political science professor at New York University, made the findings public Tuesday.
He said that he had limited explanations for what caused this behavior among voters. But at a press event in San Francisco, Egan explained that his report dismisses a number of theories popularly used to explain why polling data for marriage ballot questions doesnโt accurately reflect election results.
One theory that Egan advances in his report โ but says he finds no evidence to support โ is the idea that responders are lying to pollsters when they say theyโll vote against a same-sex marriage ban so that they seem more tolerant.
Such a phenomenon would be similar to the โBradley effect,โ a theory that polling participants would lie to pollsters by saying theyโll vote for a non-white person in an election and instead vote for a white candidate at the polls.
Egan dismissed this theory with regard to marriage initiatives after looking at several contexts in which voters may feel more social pressure to vote in opposition to bans on same-sex marriage, such as in states with a greater population of openly gay, lesbian and bisexual people, or polls conducted by live interviewers as opposed to automated pollsters.
In all these contexts, Egan said he could find โno discrepancyโ in voters being more truthful about what theyโre telling pollsters in certain states or in certain situations.
โAll of the findings here just show that voters do not appear to be lying to public opinion pollsters when they are asked about their support for same-sex marriage bans,โ Egan said.
Another theory that Egan refutes with regard to the discrepancy between polls and election results is that voters are confused about what a โyesโ vote and a โnoโ vote entails on an initiative. Egan said this theory doesnโt hold up because polling information is as unreliable at the start of the campaign โ before voters have been educated on the subject โ as it is closer to Election Day.
โThe gap does not become smaller over the course of the campaigns, so polls are just as accurate on the night before Election Day as they are six months out โ just as inaccurate, I should say,โ he said.
Egan said this theory is shown to be invalid when comparing polling data and election results from states with more educated voters to states with less educated voters.
โEven in states where voters are informed โ that is, we know from other data that state residents tend to be more interested, engaged and informed about politics โ we are not seeing that gap become any smaller than in states where voters donโt pay too much attention to politics at all,โ Egan said.
In an attempt to determine why polling data on the marriage issue is unreliable, Egan said his answer as a political scientist is โmore research is needed,โ but also speculated it may relate to how pollsters determine likely voters.
Noting that most of the surveys in his report are of likely voters, Egan said pollsters could be screening out people who would vote for same-sex marriage bans on Election Day.
โThat would help explain the difference we see between polling and election results, and why itโs so consistent over time,โ he said.
A number of LGBT civil rights leaders at the San Francisco press conference said they intend to use the report to guide strategy for future ballot initiatives on marriage. Activists in California, where Proposition 8 ended gay nuptials in 2008, are looking to bring the issue of same-sex marriage back to the ballot to reverse the initiative in 2012.
Geoff Kors, executive director of Equality California, said the findings show voters are โat their least persuadableโ during the course of a campaign.
โBut when we look over the last decade at the amazing movement weโve seen on what is one of the most challenging social issues to move people on, weโve seen that the movement happens not during the campaign, but away from the campaign,โ Kors said.
He noted that California in 2000 passed Prop 22, a statutory ban on same-sex marriage by 23 points, and in 2008 passed Prop 8, the constitutional ban, by four points.
โAll that movement happened not in the couple months before Prop 8, but in the years between those elections,โ he said.
Kors said the process is continuing in California with recent public polls showing a 50 percent or majority support for same-sex marriage.
Kate Kendell, executive director for the National Center for Lesbian Rights, also said the study demonstrates efforts to change the hearts and minds of voters must be made before a campaign begins.
โIn the midst of a campaign, voters are perhaps least likely to have their views changed โ particularly on an issue like marriage, an issue they feel like they understand and know,โ she said.
Kendell said โitโs absolutely clearโ in the fight for same-sex marriage that conversations โneed to happen now about who we are, our lives, our families, our children, our hopes and dreams.โ
North Carolina
Authorities investigate officer-involved shooting outside Asheville gay bar
Incident took place near Shakey’s on Wednesday
An officer-involved shooting outside of a gay dive bar, Shakeyโs, in downtown Asheville, N.C., left one man dead Wednesday.
The bar released a statement the following morning regarding the incident, stating that bar staff had asked a patron to leave earlier in the night citing concerning behavior. The bar said that later the man was spotted with a gun in the parking lot.
The bar proceeded to call 911, locked the doors to the establishment, and followed dispatcher instructions on how to keep patrons of the bar safe while officers arrived. These protocols included getting patrons away from the windows and staying low to the ground.
According to Shakeyโs, shots were fired outside of the business. When the Asheville Police Department officers arrived, they fired back. The individual died from their injuries, according to the police.
โBecause of everyone’s quick actions, cooperation, and concern for one another, every customer and every employee inside Shakey’s made it home safely. We are incredibly thankful,โ Shakeyโs said on their Instagram page. They thanked Asheville police, emergency dispatchers, EMS, and all first responders who were on scene.
On Thursday, a spokesperson for the North Carolina State Bureau of Investigation, Chad Flowers, stated that the suspect involved in the shooting was Arturo Castillo Palomar.
The Washington Blade reached out to the North Carolina State Bureau of Investigation for a comment regarding the possibility of the event being considered a hate crime. They said the issue is currently under investigation and that the findings would be turned over to the district attorney for review.
Pentagon
Hegseth announces testosterone initiative as trans troop ban continues
SPARTA Pride criticized Pentagon policy
The U.S. military will begin testing and treating service members with hormone therapy despite banning similar medical care for transgender service members.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Wednesday that troops ages 30 and older will be subject to annual testosterone screenings, while younger service members will have the option to voluntarily opt in. Some troops may then be recommended for hormone therapy, he explained in a video posted to social media.
“Under the supervision of our world-class medical professionals, warfighters age 30 and older are going to be tested annually as part of their periodic health assessment,” Hegseth said in a video posted to X, captioned “The High-T Department of War.”
This push to test testosterone levels, as the hormone is commonly referred to as “T,” runs counter to current medical guidelines. Physicians are generally advised to discuss testosterone therapy only with men who have symptoms consistent with low testosterone and documented low hormone levels on two separate blood tests.
Testosterone is a vital sex hormone that all humans naturally produce. It helps regulate muscle mass, bone density, and sex drive. In men, it is primarily produced in the testicles, while in women it is produced in the ovaries and adrenal glands.
Natural testosterone levels in men decline with age and have long been associated with issues such as erectile dysfunction, low libido, mood changes, and weight gain. However, experts continue to debate whether these conditions should routinely be treated with testosterone therapy.
Hegseth’s announcement aligns with other actions taken by the Trump-Vance administration โ including efforts by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. โ to make testosterone therapy more accessible for men, particularly those assigned male at birth.
Last month, the Food and Drug Administration proposed easing prescribing restrictions on testosterone gels, pills, patches, and injections following a December advisory panel that recommended reducing regulatory hurdles to expand access to testosterone therapy.
Currently, FDA labeling specifies that these medications are approved only for men with hypogonadism, a medical condition that causes abnormally low testosterone levels.
The announcement came as a shock to many LGBTQ advocates because Hegseth and the Defense Department have cited the use of hormone therapy by trans service members as justification for their dismissal under President Donald Trump’s 2025 executive order, “Prioritizing Military Excellence and Readiness.“
The Pentagon continues to pursue implementation of the trans military ban as litigation proceeds. As a result, many trans service members have had their gender-affirming medical care halted, even as similar hormone therapy is now being expanded for cisgender service members. Under the executive order, the military currently disqualifies individuals diagnosed with gender dysphoria and has begun formal administrative separation proceedings for trans personnel.
SPARTA Pride, a nonpartisan nonprofit organization made up of trans service members, veterans, and their allies, issued a statement to the Washington Blade following Hegseth’s announcement.
“If hormone therapy helps warfighters perform at their best, then it cannot simultaneously be used as evidence that transgender service members are unfit to serve,” said Kara Corcoran, executive director of SPARTA Pride. “The same class of evidence-based medical treatment cannot be characterized as readiness-enhancing for one group and readiness-destroying for another.”
The legal fight over trans military service remains ongoing.
On June 1, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit ruled that trans service members already serving in the military could continue to do so, while allowing the armed services to continue refusing to enlist new trans recruits.
The Blade reached out to the Pentagon to ask why cisgender service members could receive hormone therapy while trans service members could not, but did not receive a response by the time of publication.
National
Democrats are trying to disqualify trans candidates. Hereโs how
Jordan Korgood suspended Mass. Governorโs Council candidacy after opponent questioned residency
Uncloseted Media published this article on July 14.
By HOPE PISONI | Jordan Korgood has come a long way. In 2023, she ran into financial difficulties while studying at Northeastern University in Boston and ended up unhoused. Ordinary shelters areย hotbeds of discrimination and mistreatmentย for transgender women like her, and the onlyย trans shelterย was full. So for five months, she slept in her car, in public libraries and anywhere she could find in order to continue her studies and campus activism.
Korgood, now 24, started a bid in March for a seat on Massachusetts Governorโs Council, a state board tasked with approving judicial candidates. Despite running against an incumbent who has been in office for 41 years, she secured key endorsements from local Democrats and racked up more than 7,000 Instagram followers, the equivalent of nearly one-tenth of primary voters during the last election cycle.
But last month, her momentum was ripped away. It started when Ronald Iacobucci, one of her opponents, noticed that she was still registered to vote in the 2024 election with an old New York address. He proceeded to file an objection with the state, alleging that Korgood didnโt meet the five-year residency requirement. While Korgood has lived in Massachusetts since 2019, she didnโt have a valid address to register in the state while she was unhoused. So she used her motherโs address, where she had lived before moving.
In an email to Uncloseted Media, Iacobucci wrote: โBecause serious questions have arisen concerning compliance with those requirements, an objection was appropriate so the matter can be reviewed through the lawful process established by the commonwealth. This objection was nothing personal, it was always about the integrity of the process.โ
While most residency challenges like thisย failย in Massachusetts, the State Ballot Law Commission disqualified Korgood on June 18. While she initially attempted to appeal the decision, the financial and logistical burden became too much โ she estimates it drained about 40 percent of her campaign funds. So on July 10, Korgoodย suspended her campaign.
โI am incredibly frustrated that this is what I have to do at this point,โ Korgood told Uncloseted Media. โIโve spent thousands of hours, Iโve sacrificed my own mental health, my social life, friendships, my professional aspirations and advancement to work on this campaign, and this is how theyโre ruling.โ
โThese are cherry-picking remote issues to target specific individuals,โ Eliot Tracz, assistant professor of law at New England Law Boston, told Uncloseted Media. โTheyโre legitimate laws, but what theyโre looking for is a selective application.โ
Korgood isnโt the only trans candidate facing barriers. While aย 2025 reportย by the LGBTQ+ Victory Institute found that trans representation among elected officials has increased by over 700 percent since 2017, candidates still face major hurdles.
Uncloseted Media found examples of trans candidates running for public office in Ohio and Michigan who have been threatened with disqualification over challenges to their eligibility. Often, the challenges come from their primary opponents: fellow Democrats.
โIt should be voters, not political opponents, who decide who represents them,โ Daniel Hernandez, vice president of political programs at the LGBTQ+ Victory Fund, a nonprofit supporting queer candidates for public office, told Uncloseted Media. โThis is not a legitimate way to fight โ if you have a disagreement on policy, thatโs one thing, but to try and target trans people just because of who they are is completely unacceptable, especially in a Democratic primary.โ
A growing strategy
The first widely publicized eligibility challenge against a trans candidate Uncloseted Media identified took place in Stark County, Ohio, in 2024. The Stark County Board of Elections, which has the same chairman as the countyโs Democratic Party, disqualified Vanessa Joy, a trans woman who was running for a seat in the state legislature. The board cited an obscure state law requiring candidates who changed their name in the last five years to list their former name on candidacy petitions โ in Joyโs case, her deadname.
โThe original spirit of the law I kind of agree with,โ Joy told Uncloseted Media. โBut thereโs hardly any information about this law ever being enforced.โ
Days later, Arienne Childrey and Bobbie Arnold, two other trans candidates, had their eligibility challenged based on this law. While both candidates were cleared to run, that wasnโt the case for Joy, who never made it on the ballot.
Tom Sutton, a political science professor at Baldwin Wallace University, toldย Spectrum News 1ย he had never seen this law enforced in his 30 years of study. At the time, the relevant forms didnโt include a space to list former names, an omission that has since beenย corrected.
โThe only way to find out about it was to dig deep into all of the additional documents on their website,โ says Joy. โThey used this law against me.โ
Similar challenges cropped up in Michigan this year. Joanna Whaley, a trans woman running for a seat in the state legislature, faced a legal complaint from her Democratic primary opponent Frank Liberati, who claimed in April that she should have filed campaign paperwork under her deadname.
โBecause both the original and amended affidavits of identity filed by โJoanna Michelle Whaleyโ contain FALSE statements, she/he cannot be certified to appear on the Aug. 4, 2026, primary election ballot,โย the complaint argues.
The county clerk denied the challenge, which deadnames Whaley, because she had legally changed her name. Liberatiโs complaint was widely condemned, with the Michigan Legislative LGBTQ+ Caucus calling it โmeritlessโ and โtransphobic.โ
โIt completely backfired on him,โ Whaley told Uncloseted Media. โWe tripled our cash on hand within a week because of the support that weโve gotten from our community, and actually are in a stronger position now to win this race.โ
While Whaley benefited from the challenge, thatโs not the norm. Toni Mua, a trans woman running for a seat in the Michigan legislature, received a complaint from political activist Robert Davis in April who alleged that she also should have run under her deadname.
One of Muaโs opponents, Democrat Arthur Harrington, had discussed the challenge with Davis before it was filed, according to DeNiro Jones, Harringtonโs former campaign manager. Jones told Uncloseted Media he sat in on a meeting between the two where they discussed the plan.
Jones also sent Uncloseted Media a screenshot of what he says is a text thread that Harrington sent him. In the screenshot, Davis tells Harrington, โThe transgender candidate will be eliminated,โ and Harrington responds that โToni also wonโt have the money to fight it.โ Those texts were from April 22, two days before Davis filed the challenge.
In an email to Uncloseted Media, Davis called this story โbaseless and meritlessโ and referred to Mua as โan illegitimate candidate seeking attention.โ
โA candidate who happens to identify as transgender clearly violated Michigan Election Law and should not have been allowed to appear on the ballot,โ Davis wrote. โA personโs sexual orientation nor identity played no part in the litigation seeking to have the person who filed a false affidavit of identity properly removed from the ballot.โ
Arthur Harrington did not reply to multiple requests for comment. But in a June statement to Michigan Advance, he denied allegations that he was involved in Davisโs challenge.
These legal fights cost a lot. Korgood paid her lawyer $5,000. And while Mua defeated her challenge, she also had to use an estimated 40 percent of her campaign funds, or $10,000, to fight it.
In its opinion rejecting Davisโs challenge of Muaโs candidacy, the state court of appeals wrote, โPlaintiff misreads the statute โฆ The Court of Claims did not err by concluding that Mua complied with the law or that the Wayne County Clerk did not err in rejecting plaintiffโs challenge.โ
โI had to leave my job to run for this open seat,โ Mua told Uncloseted Media. โIt truly pisses me off, because [Democrats] have always said that they were better than this, and itโs showing truly where their support lies.โ
Quinn Allred, executive director at Let Us Lead, a youth-focused voting rights nonprofit, finds these eligibility challenges from Democrats โdespicable.โ
โInstead of saying โtrans people shouldnโt be running,โ [theyโre entering] into this respectability politics and saying โoh, itโs actually because the names donโt match up, or itโs because of this residency law,โโ Allred told Uncloseted Media. โ[Itโs a] special brand of cowardice that it takes for a Democrat to target a queer person who is also running for office.โ
Uneven enforcement
While challenges to candidatesโ residency arenโt uncommon in Massachusetts, theyย usually fail, according to Western Mass Politics & Insight, a long-running blog by local political and legal analysts.
The blog says most officials with authority over elections have a โgreat reluctance โฆ to remove an individual from the ballot.โ This makes Korgoodโs removal unusual.
And while the State Ballot Law Commission says it considers many factors when determining a candidateโs residency and โno factor standing alone can be dispositive,โ it largely cited Korgoodโs voter registration in its decision despite other evidence that supports her eligibility, including apartment leases and membership in city programs.
โWhile thereโs an undertone of legitimacy to some of those claims, itโs very selective,โ Tracz says. โMost of us, when we move to a new state, donโt bother to go through the process of getting rid of our registration to vote in the prior state.โ
Throughout history, Massachusetts candidates who faced similar challenges have been left on the ballot. These include former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who received a tax credit in Utah reserved for primary residences, and Brockton, Mass., mayoral candidate Hamilton Rodrigues, who had gotten his voter registration in Brockton removed and hadnโt voted in the city for over 10 years.
Months after Joyโs disqualification in Ohio, the Mahoning County Board of Elections struck down a similar challenge against Republican Tex Fischer, a cisgender man who changed his legal name. They allowed him to stay on the ballot.
Tracz says a judge would likely find selective enforcement like this questionable.
โ[That rule is] applicable to any candidate, and the question then becomes โIs this only being enforced against a select group of candidates?โโ he says. โWhy are we only investigating a specific type of candidate? I think that will give some courts pause.โ
Making existing challenges worse
Trans candidates face hurdles beyond eligibility challenges. A June report from the LGBTQ+ Victory Institute found that nearly two-thirds of LGBTQ candidates face in-person harassment and nearly 80 percent of them face online harassment.
โWhether itโs threats of violence, coordinated harassment campaigns, attempts to remove people from the ballot, the cumulative effect is the same: public service becoming more difficult and less accessible to the LGBTQ community,โ says Hernandez of the Victory Fund.
Whaley says the increased attention from Liberatiโs challenge brought even more harassment her way. She says she reports death threats to the police weekly and has a security detail at every public appearance. Security has become her second-largest campaign expense, and for good reason; in October, her team intervened when a man wearing a Make America Great Again hat followed her around with a gun at a No Kings rally.
โAt the end of the day, I want to get home to tuck my kids in bed,โ Whaley says. โWe could be using that money for other things, but weโre having to use it to just keep me alive.โ
Eligibility challenges distract from the candidatesโ policies. Childrey remembers one woman telling her she couldnโt vote for her because sheโs โonly about the rainbow people.โ
โMost of what [Iโm] talking about is affordability, funding for our public schools … bread and butter issues,โ Childrey told Uncloseted Media. โThere is an assumption, because weโre trans, that thatโs all it is.โ
Barriers also pile up intersectionally.ย Nearly one-thirdย of trans people experience homelessness at some point in their lives, a rate eight times higher than the general population. This means barriers for unhoused people disproportionately affect trans candidates.
โTrans youth, trans people of color, students, those who are unhoused like [Korgood] was, or who are disabled or low-income โ those barriers only compound,โ Allred says.
What could change?
Zein Murib, a political science professor at Fordham University, says these incidents demonstrate the need for more leniency with official documentation, arguing that a candidateโs deadname or legal sex arenโt relevant information. Today, 45 states accept common-law names, or the name a person uses in everyday life regardless of their ID, for other legal procedures, and Whaley says this should apply to campaigns as well.
Besides these policy changes, Allred says LGBTQ advocacy groups should allocate more funds to defend trans candidates from eligibility challenges. And Hernandez says that more people should condemn these tactics and show support for those targeted.
โWe need to make sure that we set the expectation that everyone โฆ is rejecting these tactics that are disproportionately burdening our trans candidates,โ he says. โWe have to call it out when we see it, and we have to make sure that we are not just letting candidates fight these fights themselves.โ
Mua says that she doesnโt see a future for herself or other trans people with the Democrats unless the party stands up for them. โI refuse to put myself into a party where I donโt see my safety and protection being vital.โ
While Korgood says she is saddened by this outcome, she doesnโt intend for her political career to end.
โIโm incredibly proud of what we were able to accomplish, and while I am beyond disappointed and frustrated that this is how this is ending, I am so grateful that I earned the support and the attention of thousands of people in this race.โ
Uncloseted Media also reached out to the Stark and Mahoning County Boards of Elections as well as the office of the Secretary of State in Ohio, and the Elections division of the Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, under which the State Ballot Law Commission serves. None replied.
-
Maryland5 days agoParents sue Anne Arundel schools, allege officials hid child’s gender transition
-
South Carolina5 days agoWho might replace Lindsey Graham? The contenders and their LGBTQ records
-
National4 days agoDemocrats are trying to disqualify trans candidates. Hereโs how
-
Photos5 days agoPHOTOS: Emerald City Pride
