The Supreme Court’s decision to deny certiorari on five marriage cases surprised many legal observers amid expectations that the justices would want to weigh in on the hot button national issue.
But maybe it shouldn’t have. In recent public comments, justices have dropped hints that a decision was made and they weren’t eager to take up the issue at this time because of unanimity thus far in favor of marriage equality at the circuit level.
Just last week, U.S. Associate Justice Antonin Scalia made headlines after a speech at the University of Colorado, teasing the crowd when asked when we’ll find out if the high court will take up marriage by saying, “I know when, but I’m not going to tell you. Soon! Soon!”
How could he declare with such certainty that he knew the answer for the timing? Because he knew at the Sept. 29 conference that a vote to grant certiorari had failed in each of the five marriage cases and orders announcing the petitions were denied were forthcoming from the court.
It takes an affirmative vote of four justices to grant certiorari (or decide to take up a case), but a petition is denied if that four-vote threshold isn’t met. The results of those votes aren’t public, nor was any explanation given, but that hasn’t stopped speculation about what motivated justices to turn down an opportunity to decide what many consider to be the case of the century.
A commonly cited reason for the Supreme Court’s decision to refrain from taking up the marriage issue is the unanimity of decisions striking down bans on same-sex marriage from the Fourth, Seventh and Tenth circuit courts of appeals.
Jon Davidson, legal director for Lambda Legal, during a conference call with reporters, pointed to wide consensus among the courts that bans on same-sex marriage are unconstitutional.
“It’s total speculation, but my speculation would be they decided that there was unanimity among the federal courts of appeal, and virtual unanimity among all the federal courts and almost all the state courts,” Davidson said. “Since the Windsor decision, it is clear that same-sex couples have a constitutional right to marry. There was therefore no need for them to step in at the moment.”
That would be consistent with well-publicized remarks that U.S. Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg made weeks ago at a Minnesota Law School in which she reportedly said there’s “no need for us to rush” to take up marriage unless the U.S. Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals issues a decision upholding bans on same-sex marriage, which would cause a split among the circuit courts.
Many presumed she meant the petitions would be on hold before the Supreme Court as more courts ruled on marriage, but as it turns out the court was about to determine same-sex couples would soon be able to wed in each of the states where federal appeals courts struck down marriage bans: Utah, Virginia, Oklahoma, Indiana and Wisconsin.
Doug NeJaime, a law professor at the University of California, Irvine, predicted that denial of certiorari from the Supreme Court would continue as long as circuit courts keep striking down bans on same-sex marriage.
“The court can allow this to keep moving forward without its intervention,” NeJaime said. “So long as decisions are going in the same direction, the court can wait to intervene until more states are in the marriage equality column.”
In the event that a future circuit court upholds bans on same-sex marriage — say the Sixth Circuit, or the more conservative U.S. Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals — it would be incumbent on the more liberal justices to find four votes to grant certiorari to reverse the decision, which should be easier than the other way around.
An additional factor explaining the denial of certiorari is the judicial philosophy of U.S. Chief Justice John Roberts, who has a perceived reluctance to engage in controversial issues. It’s widely assumed the court decided to hear the case challenging California’s Proposition 8 because the four most conservative justices — U.S. Associate Justices Samuel Alito, U.S. Associate Justice Clarence Thomas, Roberts and Scalia — decided to grant certiorari in the case.
Roberts wrote the majority opinion on Prop 8, which ducks the merits of the case and instead ruled defendants didn’t have standing in the lawsuit. If he only took up the case for that reason and otherwise believes the Supreme Court should stay out of lower court decisions against same-sex marriage, it could have broke up the necessary four votes needed to take up a marriage case in the first place.
A variation on this explanation is the four conservative justices on the court didn’t think they had the five votes to overturn a ruling in favor of same-sex marriage if the court considered a case. The swing vote on the court — U.S. Associate Justice Anthony Kennedy, who authored the decision against the Defense of Marriage Act — was presumably seen as a sure bet in favor of marriage equality.
Lambda’s Davidson elaborated on this possibility in the conference call with reporters.
“The four more conservative justices couldn’t count to five,” Davidson said. “They were not assured of a fifth vote, and so they didn’t want to grant review yet because that might allow there to be a decision that marriage equality is required across the country as soon as that case is decided.”
But one question that remains is why the Supreme Court decided to issue stays on same-sex marriages earlier in the year in Utah and more recently in Virginia if justices were going to refuse to hear the cases anyway. The presence of those stays was the biggest reason that legal experts assumed the Supreme Court intended to hear a marriage case.
Theodore Olson, co-counsel of the case that sought marriage in Virginia, was reluctant to speculate on why justices declined to hear the litigation, but told reporters the stays may have been enacted so the court could have more leeway to make a decision at a later time.
“I suspect that the Supreme Court granted a stay in the case, in all these cases initially so that it could consider whether or not it was going to hear the case and avoid the situation where if it had taken the case, it wanted to have the freedom to decide this one way or the other without the problem of people getting married, and then being exposed to the possibility that those marriages would somehow be upset by an adverse decision,” Olson said.
There are mixed views on what would happen to the states that now have marriage equality as a result of the denial certiorari in the event the court takes up a marriage case at later time, but determines bans on same-sex marriage are constitutional.
Some say same-sex marriages in those states would be allowed to continue; others say defendants in the case would have the option to move to halt the weddings, although couples that already wed would be allowed to stay married. Whatever the case, it’s hard to see how such a ruling would come down unless the makeup of the court changes in the immediate future.
Regardless of the explanation for why the Supreme Court denied certiorari, it made Oct. 6, 2014 a milestone moment in gay rights history and expanded marriage equality to five more states. The tally now stands at 24, and one can now drive from Richmond to Bangor without entering a state that bans gay marriage.
The decision also makes it likely that bans in other states in the Fourth and Tenth circuits — North Carolina, South Carolina, West Virginia, Colorado, Kansas and Wyoming — will soon fall. Once they go down, it would bring the number to 30.
Adam Romero, federal legal director for the Williams Institute at the University of California, Los Angeles, said justices knew the impact of what they doing when they denied certiorari whatever their reason for doing so.
“While the court did not provide its reasoning for denying review in these cases, I have no doubt that the justices were acutely aware of the effect — that denying review would clear the way for same-sex marriage to come to a number of states where it had been prohibited,” Romero said. “Perhaps also notable is that no justice issued a written dissent from the denial of cert or the lifting of the stays.”
And the number of same-sex marriage states will likely increase more now that courts are under additional guidance on handling the marriage issue. Additional circuit court decisions are expected soon from the U.S. Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals on bans in Idaho and Nevada and from the Sixth Circuit on bans in Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky and Tennessee.
Meanwhile, LGBT advocates continue to urge the Supreme Court to find an appropriate vehicle to deliver a nationwide ruling in favor of marriage rights.
James Esseks, director of the American Civil Liberties Union’s LGBT Project, told reporters the denial of certiorari is a “watershed moment” and it’s on par now with a ruling from the Supreme Court at a nationwide level in many respects.
“It means that we get equality on the ground for same-sex couples more quickly in a whole bunch of places and also sends a signal to all the other judges in all the other states that are out there of where the Supreme Court may well be on this issue,” Esseks said. “And I think that’s going to get us to marriage in all 50 states very quickly.”
Top 10 Blade news stories by web traffic
COVID breakthroughs, Equality Act, and anti-trans attacks
Each year our staff gathers in late December to review the highest trafficked stories of the year and there’s more than a little bit of competitive spirit as we review the results. Here are the top 10 stories by web traffic at HYPERLINK “http://washingtonblade.com”washingtonblade.com for 2021.
#10: Mark Glaze, gun reform advocate, dies at 51
The sad, tragic story of Glaze’s death captivated readers in November.
#9: COVID breakthrough infections strike summer tourists visiting Provincetown
This one went viral in July after a COVID outbreak was blamed on gay tourists.
#8: Thank you, Kordell Stewart, for thoughtful response to ‘the rumor’
This opinion piece thanked the former NFL quarterback for writing a personal essay addressing gay rumors.
#7: Elliot Page tweets; trans bb’s first swim trunks #transjoy #transisbeautiful
The actor created excitement by posting his first photo in swim trunks back in May.
#6: Romney declares opposition to LGBTQ Equality Act
Mitt Romney disappointed activists with his announcement; the Equality Act passed the House but never saw a vote in the Senate.
#5: White House warns state legislatures that passing anti-trans bills is illegal
The year 2021 saw a disturbing trend of GOP-led legislatures attacking trans people.
#4: Lincoln Project’s avowed ignorance of Weaver texts undercut by leaked communications
The Lincoln Project’s leaders, amid a scandal of co-founder John Weaver soliciting sexual favors from young men, have asserted they were unaware of his indiscretions until the Blade obtained electronic communications that called that claim into question.
#3: FOX 5’s McCoy suspended over offensive Tweet
Blake McCoy tweeted that obese people shouldn’t get priority for the COVID vaccine.
#2: Transgender USAF veteran trapped in Taliban takeover of Kabul
Among the Americans trapped in the suburban areas of Kabul under Taliban control was a transgender government contractor for the U.S. State Department and former U.S. Air Force Sergeant. She was later safely evacuated.
#1: Amid coup chaos, Trump quietly erases LGBTQ protections in adoption, health services
And our most popular story of 2021 was about the Trump administration nixing regulations barring federal grantees in the Department of Health & Human Services from discriminating against LGBTQ people, including in adoption services.
CDC still falling short on LGBTQ data collection for COVID patients: expert
Despite requests since the start of the COVID pandemic for the U.S. government to enhance data collection for patients who are LGBTQ, the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention is still falling short on issuing nationwide guidance to states on the issue, a leading expert health on the issue told the Blade.
With a renewed focus on COVID infections reaching new heights just before the start of the holidays amid the emergence of Omicron, the absence of any LGBTQ data collection — now across both the Trump and Biden administrations — remains a sore point for health experts who say that information could be used for public outreach.
Sean Cahill, director of Health Policy Research at the Boston-based Fenway Institute, said Wednesday major federal entities and hospitals have been collecting data on whether patients identify as LGBTQ for years — such as the National Health & Nutrition Examination Survey, which has been collecting sexual orientation data since the 1990s — but the CDC hasn’t duplicated that effort for COVID even though the pandemic has been underway for two years.
“It’s not like this is a new idea,” Cahill said. “But for some reason, the pandemic hit, and all of a sudden, we realize how little systematic data we were collecting in our health system. And it’s a real problem because we’re two years into the pandemic almost, and we still don’t know how it’s affecting this vulnerable population that experiences health disparities in other areas.”
The Blade was among the first outlets to report on the lack of efforts by the states to collect data on whether a COVID patient identifies as LGBTQ, reporting in April 2020 on the absence of data even in places with influential LGBTQ communities. The CDC hasn’t responded to the Blade’s requests for nearly two years on why it doesn’t instruct states to collect this data, nor did it respond this week to a request for comment on this article.
Cahill, who has published articles in the American Journal of Public Health on the importance of LGBTQ data collection and reporting in COVID-19 testing, care, and vaccination — said he’s been making the case to the CDC to issue guidance to states on whether COVID patients identify as LGBTQ since June 2020.
Among those efforts, he said, were to include two comments he delivered to the Biden COVID-19 Health Equity Task Force in spring 2021, a letter a coalition of groups sent to the Association of State & Territorial Health Officers asking for states to collect and report SOGI in COVID in December 2020 as well as letters to HHS leadership and congressional leadership in spring and summer 2020 asking for them to take steps to encourage or require SOGI data collection in COVID.
Asked what CDC officials had to say in response when he brought this issue to their attention, Cahill said, “They listen, but they don’t really tell me anything.”
“We’ve been making that case, and to date, as of December 22, 2021, they have not issued guidance, they have not changed the case report form. I hope that they’re in the process of doing that, and maybe we’ll be pleasantly surprised in January, and they’ll come up with something…I really hope that’s true, but right now they’re not doing anything to promote SOGI data collection and reporting in surveillance data.”
Cahill, in an email to the Blade after the initial publication of this article, clarified CDC has indicated guidance on LGBTQ data collection for COVID patients may come in the near future.
“HHS leaders told us this fall that CDC is working on an initiative to expand SOGI data collection,” Cahill said. “We are hopeful that we will see guidance early in 2022. Key people at CDC, including Director Walensky, understand the importance of SOGI data collection given their long history of working on HIV prevention.”
In other issues related to LGBTQ data collection, there has been a history of states resisting federal mandates. The Trump administration, for example, rescinded guidance calling on states to collect information on whether foster youth identified as LGBTQ after complaints from states on the Obama-era process, much to the consternation of LGBTQ advocates who said the data was helpful.
The White House COVID-19 Health Equity Task Force has at least recognized the potential for enhancing LGBTQ data collection efforts. Last month, it published an implementation plan, calling for “an equity-centered approach to data collection, including sufficient funding to collect data for groups that are often left out of data collection (e.g….LGBTQIA+ people).”
The plan also calls for “fund[ing] activities to improve data collection…including tracking COVID-19 related outcomes for people of color and other underserved populations,” and specifically calls for the collection of LGBTQ data.
The importance of collecting LGBTQ data, Cahill said, is based on its potential use in public outreach, including efforts to recognize disparities in health population and to create messaging for outreach, including for populations that may be reluctant to take the vaccine.
“If we see a disparity, we can say: Why is that?” Cahill said. “We could do focus groups of the population — try to understand and then what kind of messages would reassure you and make you feel comfortable getting a vaccine, and we could push those messages out through public education campaigns led by state local health departments led by the federal government.”
The LGBTQ data, Cahill said, could be broken down further to determine if racial and ethnic disparities exist within the LGBTQ population, or whether LGBTQ people are likely to suffer from the disease in certain regions, such as the South.
“We have data showing that lesbian or bisexual women, and transgender people are less likely to be in preventive regular routine care for their health,” Cahill said. “And so if that’s true, there’s a good chance that they’re less likely to know where to get a vaccine, to have a medical professional they trust to talk to about it today.”
Among the leaders who are supportive, Cahill said, is Rachel Levine, assistant secretary for health and the first openly transgender person confirmed by the U.S. Senate for a presidential appointment. Cahill said he raised the issue with her along with other officials at the Department of Health & Human Services three times in the last year.
In her previous role as Pennsylvania secretary of health, Levine led the way and made her state the first in the nation to set up an LGBTQ data collection system for COVID patients.
“So she definitely gets it, and I know she’s supportive of it, but we really need the CDC to act,” Cahill said.
Although the federal government has remained intransigent in taking action, Cahill said the situation has improved among states and counted five states — California, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Nevada and Oregon — in addition to D.C. as among those that have elected to collect data on sexual orientation and gender identity of COVID patients.
However, Cahill said even those data collection efforts are falling short because those jurisdictions have merely been public about collecting the data, but haven’t reported back anything yet.
“Only California has reported data publicly, and the data that they’re reporting is really just the completeness of the data,” Cahill said. “They’re not reporting the data itself…And they’re also just asking people who tests positive. So, if somebody says positive COVID in California, a contact tracer follows up with that individual and asks them a battery of questions, and among the questions that are asked are SOGI questions.”
As a result of these efforts, Cahill said, California has data on the LGBTQ status of COVID patients, but the data is overwhelmingly more complete for the gender identity of these patients rather than their sexual orientation. As of May 2021, California reported that they had sexual orientation data for 9.5 percent of individuals who had died from COVID and 16 percent of people who tested positive, but for gender identity, the data were 99.5 percent.
Equality Act, contorted as a danger by anti-LGBTQ forces, is all but dead
No political willpower to force vote or reach a compromise
Despite having President Biden in the White House and Democratic majorities in both chambers of Congress, efforts to update federal civil rights laws to strengthen the prohibition on discrimination against LGBTQ people by passing the Equality Act are all but dead as opponents of the measure have contorted it beyond recognition.
Political willpower is lacking to find a compromise that would be acceptable to enough Republican senators to end a filibuster on the bill — a tall order in any event — nor is there the willpower to force a vote on the Equality Act as opponents stoke fears about transgender kids in sports and not even unanimity in the Democratic caucus in favor of the bill is present, stakeholders who spoke to the Blade on condition of anonymity said.
In fact, there are no imminent plans to hold a vote on the legislation even though Pride month is days away, which would be an opportune time for Congress to demonstrate solidarity with the LGBTQ community by holding a vote on the legislation.
If the Equality Act were to come up for a Senate vote in the next month, it would not have the support to pass. Continued assurances that bipartisan talks are continuing on the legislation have yielded no evidence of additional support, let alone the 10 Republicans needed to end a filibuster.
“I haven’t really heard an update either way, which is usually not good,” one Democratic insider said. “My understanding is that our side was entrenched in a no-compromise mindset and with [Sen. Joe] Manchin saying he didn’t like the bill, it doomed it this Congress. And the bullying of hundreds of trans athletes derailed our message and our arguments of why it was broadly needed.”
The only thing keeping the final nail from being hammered into the Equality Act’s coffin is the unwillingness of its supporters to admit defeat. Other stakeholders who spoke to the Blade continued to assert bipartisan talks are ongoing, strongly pushing back on any conclusion the legislation is dead.
Alphonso David, president of the Human Rights Campaign, said the Equality Act is “alive and well,” citing widespread public support he said includes “the majority of Democrats, Republicans and independents and a growing number of communities across the country engaging and mobilizing every day in support of the legislation.”
“They understand the urgent need to pass this bill and stand up for LGBTQ people across our country,” David added. “As we engage with elected officials, we have confidence that Congress will listen to the voices of their constituents and continue fighting for the Equality Act through the lengthy legislative process. We will also continue our unprecedented campaign to grow the already-high public support for a popular bill that will save lives and make our country fairer and more equal for all. We will not stop until the Equality Act is passed.”
Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), chief sponsor of the Equality Act in the Senate, also signaled through a spokesperson work continues on the legislation, refusing to give up on expectations the legislation would soon become law.
“Sen. Merkley and his staff are in active discussions with colleagues on both sides of the aisle to try to get this done,” McLennan said. “We definitely see it as a key priority that we expect to become law.”
A spokesperson Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), who had promised to force a vote on the Equality Act in the Senate on the day the U.S. House approved it earlier this year, pointed to a March 25 “Dear Colleague” letter in which he identified the Equality Act as one of several bills he’d bring up for a vote.
Despite any assurances, the hold up on the bill is apparent. Although the U.S. House approved the legislation earlier this year, the Senate Judiciary Committee hasn’t even reported out the bill yet to the floor in the aftermath of the first-ever Senate hearing on the bill in March. A Senate Judiciary Committee Democratic aide, however, disputed that inaction as evidence the Equality Act is dead in its tracks: “Bipartisan efforts on a path forward are ongoing.”
Democrats are quick to blame Republicans for inaction on the Equality Act, but with Manchin withholding his support for the legislation they can’t even count on the entirety of their caucus to vote “yes” if it came to the floor. Progressives continue to advocate an end to the filibuster to advance legislation Biden has promised as part of his agenda, but even if they were to overcome headwinds and dismantle the institution needing 60 votes to advance legislation, the Equality Act would likely not have majority support to win approval in the Senate with a 50-50 party split.
The office of Manchin, who has previously said he couldn’t support the Equality Act over concerns about public schools having to implement the transgender protections applying to sports and bathrooms, hasn’t responded to multiple requests this year from the Blade on the legislation and didn’t respond to a request to comment for this article.
Meanwhile, Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who declined to co-sponsor the Equality Act this year after having signed onto the legislation in the previous Congress, insisted through a spokesperson talks are still happening across the aisle despite the appearances the legislation is dead.
“There continues to be bipartisan support for passing a law that protects the civil rights of Americans, regardless of their sexual orientation or gender identity,” said Annie Clark, a Collins spokesperson. “The Equality Act was a starting point for negotiations, and in its current form, it cannot pass. That’s why there are ongoing discussions among senators and stakeholders about a path forward.”
Let’s face it: Anti-LGBTQ forces have railroaded the debate by making the Equality Act about an end to women’s sports by allowing transgender athletes and danger to women in sex-segregated places like bathrooms and prisons. That doesn’t even get into resolving the issue on drawing the line between civil rights for LGBTQ people and religious freedom, which continues to be litigated in the courts as the U.S. Supreme Court is expected any day now to issue a ruling in Fulton v. City of Philadelphia to determine if foster care agencies can reject same-sex couples over religious objections.
For transgender Americans, who continue to report discrimination and violence at high rates, the absence of the Equality Act may be most keenly felt.
Mara Keisling, outgoing executive director of the National Center for Transgender Equality, disputed any notion the Equality Act is dead and insisted the legislation is “very much alive.”
“We remain optimistic despite misinformation from the opposition,” Keisling said. “NCTE and our movement partners are still working fruitfully on the Equality Act with senators. In fact, we are gaining momentum with all the field organizing we’re doing, like phone banking constituents to call their senators. Legislating takes time. Nothing ever gets through Congress quickly. We expect to see a vote during this Congress, and we are hopeful we can win.”
But one Democratic source said calls to members of Congress against the Equality Act, apparently coordinated by groups like the Heritage Foundation, have has outnumbered calls in favor of it by a substantial margin, with a particular emphasis on Manchin.
No stories are present in the media about same-sex couples being kicked out of a restaurant for holding hands or transgender people for using the restroom consistent with their gender identity, which would be perfectly legal in 25 states thanks to the patchwork of civil rights laws throughout the United States and inadequate protections under federal law.
Tyler Deaton, senior adviser for the American Unity Fund, which has bolstered the Republican-led Fairness for All Act as an alternative to the Equality Act, said he continues to believe the votes are present for a compromise form of the bill.
“I know for a fact there is a supermajority level of support in the Senate for a version of the Equality Act that is fully protective of both LGBTQ civil rights and religious freedom,” Deaton said. “There is interest on both sides of the aisle in getting something done this Congress.”
Deaton, however, didn’t respond to a follow-up inquiry on what evidence exists of agreeing on this compromise.
Biden has already missed the goal he campaigned on in the 2020 election to sign the Equality Act into law within his first 100 days in office. Although Biden renewed his call to pass the legislation in his speech to Congress last month, as things stand now that appears to be a goal he won’t realize for the remainder of this Congress.
Nor has the Biden administration made the Equality Act an issue for top officials within the administration as it pushes for an infrastructure package as a top priority. One Democratic insider said Louisa Terrell, legislative affairs director for the White House, delegated work on the Equality Act to a deputy as opposed to handling it herself.
To be sure, Biden has demonstrated support for the LGBTQ community through executive action at an unprecedented rate, signing an executive order on day one ordering federal agencies to implement the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision last year in Bostock v. Clayton County to the fullest extent possible and dismantling former President Trump’s transgender military ban. Biden also made historic LGBTQ appointments with the confirmation of Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Rachel Levine as assistant secretary of health.
A White House spokesperson insisted Biden’s team across the board remains committed to the Equality Act, pointing to his remarks to Congress.
“President Biden has urged Congress to get the Equality Act to his desk so he can sign it into law and provide long overdue civil rights protections to LGBTQ+ Americans, and he remains committed to seeing this legislation passed as quickly as possible,” the spokesperson said. “The White House and its entire legislative team remains in ongoing and close coordination with organizations, leaders, members of Congress, including the Equality Caucus, and staff to ensure we are working across the aisle to push the Equality Act forward.”
But at least in the near-term, that progress will fall short of fulfilling the promise of updating federal civil rights law with the Equality Act, which will mean LGBTQ people won’t be able to rely on those protections when faced with discrimination based on sexual orientation or gender identity.
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