Connect with us

National

Romney’s debate bounce worries Obama supporters

‘Progressives should contemplate what life in Canada might be like’

Published

on

President Obama (right) and Mitt Romney are set to square off on domestic issues at next week's debate in Denver (Blade photo by Michael Key)

Polls are showing GOP nominee Mitt Romney has a slight lead in national polls  in the weeks prior to Election Day. (Blade file photo by Michael Key)

New polling data in the presidential race following last week’s debate is giving Democrats heartburn, suggesting that President Obama may not coast to victory on Election Day as many observers previously predicted.

On Tuesday, two national polls were published giving Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney a narrow lead over Obama. A report from Public Policy Polling found the GOP candidate had support from 49 percent of likely voters in the poll, compared to 47 percent for Obama. A Gallup tracking poll published on the same day had identical results.

Hilary Rosen, a lesbian Democratic activist and commentator, said Democrats “of course” should be concerned that Obama is facing a challenging road to re-election, but she remained optimistic.

“This race was always going to be decided by 1 or 2 points,” Rosen said. “Everyone in the D.C. Metro area can help by making sure the president wins in Virginia. I am confident that we [will] have another Obama rebound story coming in the next few weeks.”

The polling was conducted in the days after the Denver presidential debate, in which most observers believed Romney bested Obama — despite making controversial comments about cutting the federal subsidy for PBS as well as apparently altering his views on tax cuts for the wealthy and barring insurance companies from discriminating on the basis of pre-existing conditions.

The Tuesday polls came the day after the Pew Research Center published a poll giving Romney a 4-point lead over Obama among those most likely to vote. Just last month, the same poll gave Obama an 8-point lead over Romney. Other polls this week from Rasmussen, Reuters and Zogby have the race in a dead-heat.

The Pew results received significant attention because they were the first to place Romney ahead of Obama and because the same pollster had previously given Obama a wide lead. But the report was also seen as an outlier because — as pointed out by Electoral Vote Predictor — the internals of the poll are questionable.

In the October sample, 31 percent of respondents identified as Democrats, compared to 39 percent in September. Conversely, 36 percent of respondents identified as Republicans in October compared to 29 percent in September. Consequently, Pew may have undersampled Democrats and oversampled Republicans.

Richard Grenell, who’s gay and briefly served as the Romney campaign’s foreign policy spokesperson, said he doesn’t “put much stock in snapshot polls,” but believes Romney could win the election based on anecdotal evidence he’s heard from people unhappy with Obama.

“I’ve always known the American people are frustrated and disappointed with President Obama’s disastrous leadership both domestically and globally,” Grenell said. “Sadly, President Obama has failed to unite the country and has been one of the most divisive leaders the U.S. has ever seen. I keep hearing from people that voted for Obama in 2008 who will be voting for Romney now. Romney has a real chance.”

In polls taken in battleground states, the race is similarly showing signs of tightening. An American Research Group poll published Tuesday gave Romney a narrow lead in two swing states. In Colorado, the poll gave Romney a lead of 50 percent compared to the 46 percent of respondents who favored Obama, although three percent were undecided. In Ohio, Romney edged Obama by a 48-47 margin with four percent of voters identifying as undecided.

Still, the news was good for Obama in other polls for key battleground states. Contrary to American Research Group results for Ohio, a CNN/ORC poll gave Obama a significant lead in the state, placing him ahead of Romney, 51-47.

According to a Siena poll published Tuesday, Obama still enjoys a lead over Romney in Pennsylvania. Obama was favored by 43 percent of likely voters in the Keystone State and Romney has the support of 40 percent — although 12 percent were undecided.

Dan Pinello, who’s gay and a political scientist at the City University of New York, said the changes in the polls reflect the volatile nature of public opinion over the course of the presidential campaign season.

“Thus, the best answer now about whether the first debate succeeded in salvaging Romney’s campaign — and whether Barack Obama’s lackluster performance snatched defeat from the jaws of victory — is:  It’s too soon to know for sure,” Pinello said. “At least another week of polling data is necessary for any certainty.”

The next test for the presidential campaign could be the debate between Vice President Joseph Biden and Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan on Thursday at Centre College in Danville, Ky. Two more presidential debates between Obama and Biden — one a town hall discussion at Hofstra University on Oct. 16 and another a foreign policy debate at Lynn University in Florida on Oct. 22 — are set to take place before Election Day.

Pinello maintained incumbent presidents often come back after first debate performances that are regarded as poor — recalling John Kerry’s perceived win over George W. Bush in the first debate of 2004 as well as a first debate in 1984 when President Reagan was regarded to have fared poorly against Democrat Walter Mondale.

“In both instances, the incumbents did better in subsequent debates, and voters apparently gave them any benefit of the doubt,” Pinello said. “Indeed, incumbent presidents have inherent advantages. They are known commodities to voters, while challengers necessarily represent a political roll of the dice.”

If Biden triumphs in the vice presidential debate, Pinello said the rise in popularity for the Romney-Ryan ticket could diminish as quickly as it emerged. But Pinello issued a warning to Democrats if more poor debate performances follow.

“Needless to say, if Ryan trounces Biden on Thursday, then all bets are off,” Pinello said. “Progressives should contemplate what life in Canada might be like.”

Advertisement
FUND LGBTQ JOURNALISM
SIGN UP FOR E-BLAST

State Department

State Department releases annual human rights report

Antony Blinken reiterates criticism of Uganda’s Anti-Homosexuality Act

Published

on

(Photo courtesy of the Library of Congress)

Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday once again reiterated his criticism of Uganda’s Anti-Homosexuality Act upon release of the State Department’s annual human rights report.

“This year’s report also captures human rights abuses against members of vulnerable communities,” he told reporters. “In Afghanistan, the Taliban have limited work opportunities for women, shuttered institutions found educating girls, and increasing floggings for women and men accused of, quote, ‘immoral behavior,’ end quote. Uganda passed a draconian and discriminatory Anti-Homosexuality Act, threatening LGBTQI+ individuals with life imprisonment, even death, simply for being with the person they loved.”

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni last May signed the law, which contains a death penalty provision for “aggravated homosexuality.”

The U.S. subsequently imposed visa restrictions on Ugandan officials and removed the country from a program that allows sub-Saharan African countries to trade duty-free with the U.S. The World Bank Group also announced the suspension of new loans to Uganda.

Uganda’s Constitutional Court earlier this month refused to “nullify the Anti-Homosexuality Act in its totality.” More than a dozen Ugandan LGBTQ activists have appealed the ruling.

Clare Byarugaba of Chapter Four Uganda, a Ugandan LGBTQ rights group, on Monday met with National Security Council Chief-of-Staff Curtis Ried. Jay Gilliam, the senior LGBTQI+ coordinator for the U.S. Agency for International Development, in February traveled to Uganda and met with LGBTQ activists who discussed the Anti-Homosexuality Act’s impact. 

“LGBTQI+ activists reported police arrested numerous individuals on the basis of their sexual orientation or gender identity and subjected many to forced anal exams, a medically discredited practice with no evidentiary value that was considered a form of cruel, inhuman, and degrading treatment and could amount to torture,” reads the human rights report.

The report, among other things, also notes Ugandan human rights activists “reported numerous instances of state and non-state actor violence and harassment against LGBTQI+ persons and noted authorities did not adequately investigate the cases.”

Report highlights anti-LGBTQ crackdowns in Ghana, Hungary, Russia

Ghanaian lawmakers on Feb. 28 approved the Promotion of Proper Human Sexual Rights and Ghanaian Family Values Bill. The country’s president, Nana Akufo-Addo, has said he will not sign the measure until the Ghanaian Supreme Court rules on whether it is constitutional or not.

The human rights report notes “laws criminalizing consensual same-sex sexual conduct between adults” and “crimes involving violence or threats of violence targeting lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer or intersex persons” are among the “significant human rights issues” in Ghana. 

The report documents Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and members of his right-wing Fidesz party’s continued rhetoric against “gender ideology.” It also notes Russia’s ongoing crackdown against LGBTQ people that includes reports of “state actors committed violence against LGBTQI+ individuals based on their sexual orientation or gender identity, particularly in Chechnya.”

The report specifically notes Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 24 signed a law that bans “legal gender recognition, medical interventions aimed at changing the sex of a person, and gender-affirming care.” It also points out Papua New Guinea is among the countries in which consensual same-sex sexual relations remain criminalized.

The Hungarian Parliament on April 4, 2024. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his right-wing Fidesz party in 2023 continued their anti-LGBTQ crackdown. (Washington Blade photo by Michael K. Lavers)

The Cook Islands and Mauritius in decriminalized homosexuality in 2023.

The report notes the Namibia Supreme Court last May ruled the country must recognize same-sex marriages legally performed outside the country. The report also highlights the Indian Supreme Court’s ruling against marriage equality that it issued last October. (It later announced it would consider an appeal of the decision.)

Congress requires the State Department to release a human rights report each year. 

The Biden-Harris administration in 2021 released a memorandum that committed the U.S. to promoting LGBTQ+ and intersex rights abroad.

The full report can be read here.

Continue Reading

National

Same-sex couples vulnerable to adverse effects of climate change

Williams Institute report based on Census, federal agencies

Published

on

Beach erosion in Fire Island Pines, N.Y. (Photo courtesy of Savannah Farrell / Actum)

A new report by the Williams Institute at the UCLA School of Law finds that same-sex couples are at greater risk of experiencing the adverse effects of climate change compared to different-sex couples.

LGBTQ people in same-sex couple households disproportionately live in coastal areas and cities and areas with poorer infrastructure and less access to resources, making them more vulnerable to climate hazards.

Using U.S. Census data and climate risk assessment data from NASA and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, researchers conducted a geographic analysis to assess the climate risk impacting same-sex couples. NASA’s risk assessment focuses on changes to meteorological patterns, infrastructure and built environment, and the presence of at-risk populations. FEMA’s assessment focuses on changes in the occurrence of severe weather events, accounting for at-risk populations, the availability of services, and access to resources.

Results show counties with a higher proportion of same-sex couples are, on average, at increased risk from environmental, infrastructure, and social vulnerabilities due to climate change.

“Given the disparate impact of climate change on LGBTQ populations, climate change policies, including disaster preparedness, response, and recovery plans, must address the specific needs and vulnerabilities facing LGBTQ people,” said study co-author Ari Shaw, senior fellow and director of international programs at the Williams Institute. “Policies should focus on mitigating discriminatory housing and urban development practices, making shelters safe spaces for LGBT people, and ensuring that relief aid reaches displaced LGBTQ individuals and families.”

“Factors underlying the geographic vulnerability are crucial to understanding why same-sex couples are threatened by climate change and whether the findings in our study apply to the broader LGBTQ population,” said study co-author Lindsay Mahowald, research data analyst at the Williams Institute. “More research is needed to examine how disparities in housing, employment, and health care among LGBT people compound the geographic vulnerabilities to climate change.”

Read the report

Continue Reading

Federal Government

Lambda Legal praises Biden-Harris administration’s finalized Title IX regulations

New rules to take effect Aug. 1

Published

on

U.S. Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona (Screen capture: AP/YouTube)

The Biden-Harris administration’s revised Title IX policy “protects LGBTQ+ students from discrimination and other abuse,” Lambda Legal said in a statement praising the U.S. Department of Education’s issuance of the final rule on Friday.

Slated to take effect on Aug. 1, the new regulations constitute an expansion of the 1972 Title IX civil rights law, which prohibits sex-based discrimination in education programs that receive federal funding.

Pursuant to the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling in the landmark 2020 Bostock v. Clayton County case, the department’s revised policy clarifies that discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation and gender identity constitutes sex-based discrimination as defined under the law.

“These regulations make it crystal clear that everyone can access schools that are safe, welcoming and that respect their rights,” Education Secretary Miguel Cardona said during a call with reporters on Thursday.

While the new rule does not provide guidance on whether schools must allow transgender students to play on sports teams corresponding with their gender identity to comply with Title IX, the question is addressed in a separate rule proposed by the agency in April.

The administration’s new policy also reverses some Trump-era Title IX rules governing how schools must respond to reports of sexual harassment and sexual assault, which were widely seen as imbalanced in favor of the accused.

Jennifer Klein, the director of the White House Gender Policy Council, said during Thursday’s call that the department sought to strike a balance with respect to these issues, “reaffirming our longstanding commitment to fundamental fairness.”

“We applaud the Biden administration’s action to rescind the legally unsound, cruel, and dangerous sexual harassment and assault rule of the previous administration,” Lambda Legal Nonbinary and Transgender Rights Project Director Sasha Buchert said in the group’s statement on Friday.

“Today’s rule instead appropriately underscores that Title IX’s civil rights protections clearly cover LGBTQ+ students, as well as survivors and pregnant and parenting students across race and gender identity,” she said. “Schools must be places where students can learn and thrive free of harassment, discrimination, and other abuse.”

Continue Reading
Advertisement
Advertisement

Sign Up for Weekly E-Blast

Follow Us @washblade

Advertisement

Popular