News
How bad would a GOP Senate takeover be for LGBT people?
Republicans need to pick up six seats to claim majority

Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) would likely become majority leader if Republicans win a majority in the Senate. (Washington Blade file photo by Michael Key)
The congressional mid-term elections are more than six months away, but political observers are already warning Democrats they could lose control of the U.S. Senate — an outcome that has tongues wagging over its potential impact on LGBT issues.
While analysts agree that Republicans could claim at least six seats to win control of the chamber — such as by knocking off pro-LGBT senators in New Hampshire and Colorado — the general sense is draconian anti-gay measures like the Federal Marriage Amendment won’t emerge even with GOP control of the Senate.
Dan Pinello, a political scientist at City University of New York, noted seven incumbent Democrats are seeking re-election in states Mitt Romney won in 2012 and conservatives like the Koch brothers and Karl Rove are spending hundreds of thousands of dollars through “Super PACs” to affect those races.
“So I think the prospect of a Republican takeover is very close — a virtual tossup right now,” Pinello said. “Everything will depend on the degree to which Democratic voters turn out at the polls in crucial states.”
Republicans are optimistic about their prospects on Election Day 2014 — and virtually no one is suggesting that Democrats can retake control of the House. In an appearance on “Fox News Sunday,” anti-gay GOP strategist Karl Rove predicted GOP victory in the Senate.
“With 14 seats in play on the Democratic side and a couple of seats in play potentially on the Republican side, I think it’s highly likely that Republicans pick up the majority,” Rove said.
On the same day on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” White House Communications Director Dan Pfeiffer defied the predictions by saying he believes “we will keep the Senate.” But his former colleague in the White House, Robert Gibbs — who landed in hot water in 2010 by saying Republicans could take control of the House — expressed a contrary view, saying the Senate is “definitely” in danger in 2014.
“So as a consultant, I can say all these things now,” Gibbs said. “They’ve got to pick up six seats, which is not a small number. But what gives them a huge advantage, obviously, is the states that they’re in…Louisiana and in North Carolina, in Montana, places that the president didn’t do well.”
The heads of both political parties are both bullish about their prospects in 2014. On Tuesday, Republican National Committee chair Reince Priebus predicted at a National Press Club breakfast a “tsunami” and said it’s “going to be a very big win, especially at the U.S. Senate level.” Meanwhile, Democratic National Committee chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz said that Democrats are running “aggressive bottom-up campaigns” and she’s confident her party will hold the Senate.
But political analysts have forecasts more favorable to Republicans. As of Monday, Cook Political Report forecast that Republicans will pick up somewhere between four and six seats, but expected the ultimate gains will be “at the higher end of – and may exceed – that range.”
Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia, said it’s too early to provide a firm prediction on the extent of Republican gains, but said Republicans would net at least four to six seats.
“It’s easy to see how they could get six or even more if President Obama stays in the low 40s and the economy continues to be balky,” Sabato said. “This year, in the sixth-year of President Obama’s administration, you’d much rather be in the GOP’s electoral position than the Democrats’.”
Pro-LGBT Democrats face challenging re-election bids
Democrats elected to the Senate at the start of the Obama administration and who built a reputation for supporting LGBT rights are among those facing uphill re-election bids.
Among them is Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) who has championed “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” repeal and the flow of spousal benefits to veterans in same-sex marriages as chief sponsor of the Charlie Morgan Act. A potential challenger for her is former U.S. senator from Massachusetts Scott Brown. Although he voted for “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” repeal during his tenure in the Senate, Brown penned an op-ed for Bay Windows suggesting the pursuit of LGBT rights was a “pet project.”
Sen. Mark Udall (D-Colo.) also faces a tough re-election bid now that Rep. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) has announced he will run for the Senate. Udall has championed “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” repeal, an end to the Defense of Marriage Act and has written at least two letters to the Obama administration to ensure gay veterans can receive spousal benefits in whichever state they live. Gardner hasn’t articulated a position on same-sex marriage, but voted in favor of an LGBT-inclusive version of the Violence Against Women Act.
The Democrat who’ll likely face the most challenging re-election campaign is Sen. Kay Hagan (D-N.C.). An early supporter of “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” repeal, she voted for a repeal amendment in the Senate Armed Services Committee even before the Pentagon report on open service. Hagan came out in favor of same-sex marriage last year on the same day the U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments on California’s Proposition 8. She could face any one of a number of Republicans vying for the nomination in the state’s primary.
Also of note is the re-election bid of Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), who as chief sponsor of the Employment Non-Discrimination Act oversaw a bipartisan vote in favor of the bill in the Senate late last year. Merkley has also been the leading voice in the Senate calling on President Obama to sign an executive order barring LGBT employment discrimination among federal contractors. A number of Republican candidates have lined up to challenge Merkley, although he’s expected to win re-election in the heavily “blue” state.
The only Republican who’s expected to face a tough re-election challenge is the one who’s likely to handle the floor schedule in the Senate if the GOP ekes out a win: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). In addition to facing a Tea Party challenge, McConnell faces a stiff challenge in the general election from Democratic Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes.
Would anti-LGBT legislation move forward?
If the Republicans win control of the Senate, it would create a Congress in which the GOP leads both chambers at a time when the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to deliver a nationwide ruling on marriage equality.
Speaking to the Washington Blade after her event at the National Press Club, Wasserman Schultz initially responded to an inquiry about what a GOP takeover of the Senate would mean for LGBT people by saying, “Oh, God.”
Wasserman Schultz predicted Republicans would curtail the expansion of rights she said are “deserved” by LGBT people in addition to engaging in an “aggressive attempt” to roll them back. But the DNC chair emphasized that won’t happen because Democrats are on track to maintain control of the Senate.
Asked by the Blade whether she thinks Republicans would want to push through a Federal Marriage Amendment, Wasserman Schultz said that “wouldn’t surprise me” because the Republicans endorsed the amendment as part of the 2012 party platform.
But political observers say even with Republicans in control of both chambers, the trend in favor of same-sex marriage — which a recent poll pegged at 59 percent support — would deter Congress from passing a measure that already failed twice under the Bush administration when Republicans had large majorities.
Gregory Angelo, executive director of the Log Cabin Republicans, said he doesn’t foresee a situation in which Republicans would push forward in either chamber with a U.S. constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage.
“Considering the move for a Federal Marriage Amendment in the House following the Supreme Court’s DOMA decision last year went absolutely nowhere tells me that there is little appetite among Republicans to engage in culture wars either in the House or the Senate — in this election cycle and in 2016,” Angelo said.
But there are other pieces of anti-gay legislation that could be seen as an alternative to the Federal Marriage Amendment. Rep. Raul Labrador (R-Idaho) and Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) have introduced legislation known as the Marriage and Religious Freedom Act, which would prohibit the federal government from discriminating against organizations that exercise “religious conscience” against same-sex marriage.
Rep. Randy Forbes (R-Texas) and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) have introduced the State Marriage Defense Act, which would prohibit the federal government from recognizing same-sex marriage in states where it’s not allowed. The bill may be moot in the event of a Supreme Court ruling in favor of marriage equality.
Sabato nonetheless said he doesn’t see much of an opportunity for anti-LGBT legislation of any kind to make it through the Senate – given the growing support for LGBT rights among Republican senators.
“I think it is very unlikely Susan Collins or Rob Portman would support any stand-alone, anti-LGBT legislation,” Sabato said. “I could see other Republicans joining them, such as Lisa Murkowski. I can’t see a single Senate Democrat voting for such legislation. So I doubt the Senate would pass it.”
In the event that an anti-gay bill was approved by both chambers of Congress, Sabato said the legislation would never become law because President Obama would veto it once it reached his desk.
But Republican control over the Senate could mean an end to progress on pro-LGBT legislation. Under Democratic control, the Senate just barely invoked cloture on ENDA by a vote of 61-30 before approving it on final passage. Meanwhile, the Republican-controlled House has yet to take up ENDA months after the Senate voted to approve it as House Speaker John Boehner threw cold water on it during a meeting with the LGBT Equality Caucus.
Pinello said the danger for the LGBT community in the aftermath of a Republican takeover of the Senate lies in the nomination and confirmation of federal judges — perhaps on the Supreme Court in the event of a vacancy before the final ruling on marriage equality.
“The federal bench is now the most hopeful source of remedy for the denial of marriage equality nationwide, and a Senate controlled by the Republican Party might diminish those prospects,” Pinello said. “Thus, there is very good reason for LGBT voters to turn out for Democratic candidates next November.”
District of Columbia
Trans activists gather on National Mall for Transgender Day of Visibility
Around 200 members, supporters of the trans community, gathered on the Mall amid the increasingly hostile political environment.
The National Mall was covered in kites on Saturday as transgender activists from around the country gathered to support the second annual Transgender Day of Visibility. The event, put on by the Christopher Street Project — whose mission to protect and support trans Americans on the ballot and in streets — brought together around 200 supporters and organizations to honor trans homicide victims and rally for the future of human rights.
Created 17 years ago by psychotherapist and trans activist Rachel Crandall-Crocker, the day was born out of a need to celebrate one of the most marginalized groups in American politics, she told The 19th in 2021.
Since then, the nation has slowly caught up. This year marked the second time the observance has expanded into a multi-day movement, with events ranging from panels and congressional lobbying to organizing efforts, culminating in a rally on the “nation’s front door” — the National Mall.
A recent survey conducted by SRSS, a national research and marketing firm, and commissioned by the Human Rights Campaign Foundation, found that 41 percent of American adults say they personally know someone who is trans. That figure is up from previous estimates of around 30 percent. The study also shows that 27 percent say they have had a regular conversation with a transgender person in the last year. For HRC, this data is confirmation that visibility efforts are working.
“Transgender people are not strangers. They are our neighbors, coworkers, family members, and friends. And this new data shows that as people get to know them, they are more likely to stand by them as allies,” said Kelley Robinson, president of HRC said in a statement. “Defending trans rights is part of defending democracy itself. The more we show up for each other, the stronger our communities and our democracy become.”
Despite this progress and growing positive sentiment, more than 80 anti-trans bills are currently pending in state legislatures across the country, according to HRC, while similar issues are being debated at the national level. Many of the bills seek to restrict trans youth from participating in sports aligned with their gender identity and limit access to gender-affirming medical care.
Tyler Hack, founder and executive director of the Christopher Street Project, who is trans and nonbinary, spoke with the Washington Blade on March 28 about the growing importance of the day.
“We saw that there was a lack of political power for the trans community. We saw that there was a lack of political power for the trans community,” Hack said. “We decided to step up and implement the demand leadership and have galvanized people all across this country for Trans Day of Visibility and our gatherings these last few days we’ve had people come from as far as Hawaii to come celebrate with us, advocate for our rights on the hill, and learn about what it means to fight for all of us.”
Fighting for “all of us,” Hack noted, means showing up where political power is concentrated — in the nation’s capital. The National Mall, a hub for both protest and tourism, draws a wide range of visitors, from political activists brandishing MAGA hats or “You did it, Joe” t-shirts to everyday sightseers.
“I literally just saw a guy in a Trump shirt [at the rally], but we’re not going anywhere,” they said. “Visablity is really important, alongside needing to be an active parts of society, being having public life, and we need to demonstrate that we’re not going anywhere. I mean, we had people from the hill, Congress members come who weren’t even planning to come and did … We are now learning about what it means to fight for and stand up for our rights.”
Hack then looked toward the Capitol after being asked why they believe there are so many negative — and false — statements coming from congressional legislators about trans people. After a pause, they emphasized that the fight for trans rights is often deliberately mischaracterized by Republican opponents try to turn Americans against the community. That, they pointed out, is not what is happening outside the halls of the Hill.
“We are fighting for an America that works for all of us, and we know that,” Hack said. “We know that fighting for all of us is not unpopular. What’s unpopular is genital inspections in schools for girls as young as four years old — who some of our leaders want to transvestigate for not looking feminine enough. What’s unpopular are subpoenas of hospitals so the government can go through your records and decide what they like and don’t like. It is about power.”
That framing — that trans people simply want to live freely and equally under the law — has become central to the movement’s messaging, even as conservative media organizations and political leaders continue to shape public perception in opposing ways.
“We can’t cede any ground because we don’t need to. We are not fighting for a cause that’s inherently unpopular. People know that we shouldn’t throw anyone under the bus, and that’s what we’re here to say to our leaders: we’re paying attention.”
This year’s TDoV was noticeably larger in production than last year’s event, with a bigger stage, more high-profile speakers, increased security, and expanded programming across multiple days.
“We also planned three days of programming. We had dozen panels and workshops on Thursday, and we had over 75 Hill meetings on Friday,” they said. “Now we have this rally, and our capacity hasn’t grown that much — a lot of this was done by two people, but I think it just has come to fruition in a way. I’m happy with it, but I would love to see people with crazy budgets and includes expanded capacity, also we can continue to step out and do the work.”
One moment that stood out to Hack was seeing a parent advocate for her trans child — highlighting what they described as the deeply human nature of these stories.
“The first person to come up to me today was a mom of a trans kid and a nonbinary kid who said she came to our whole convening, going to the Hill to advocate yesterday — for the first time, because we inspired her to act, and that she was too scared to be a part of something,” they said. “She knew that her kids’ lives had been criminalized and that she needed to act and –that really hit me. I also know most of the people who educated our lawmakers, were people who have never been to the Hill before. These people who were also telling their stories, were also fighting for reproductive freedom for all. I mean, we had people from Hawaii, Washington State, California, people who some of them hadn’t been to D.C. Those are the people that we are here to mobilize because they haven’t been galvanized by any project before. I’m just grateful we gave them something that they’re willing to get behind.”
Speakers throughout the rally echoed similar themes of urgency, visibility, and collective action.
Rayceen Pendarvis, a local D.C. trans activist, spoke at the event, emphasizing the history behind the current fight — especially the exclusion of trans people from broader LGBTQ movements — and the need to push back against current political attacks on the most marginalized.
“Trans people in D.C. had to fight for their seat at the table. Trans people were either an afterthought — or left out completely. Now, trans people have become the scapegoat. Ignorance about trans people has been weaponized.”
The lifelong Washingtonian, who had a popular show that ran for 10 seasons with a range of programming covering local and national LGBTQ topics from 2012–2021, continued on the need to stay aware and vocal during the increasingly difficult Trump-Vance administration.
“We have to push back — be as relentless as they are. If your vote was not important, they wouldn’t spend so much time trying to stop you from using it. Voting is not enough — we all must get involved. Let us make our ancestors proud by unifying, organizing, and fighting back.”
She ended her speech with advice to not only strategically spend time advocating, but also build relationships within and around the transgender community.
“Support each other, encourage each other, and help each other. Spend time with your trans elders while you can and learn from them. Give them their flowers, but also give the old dolls some money to pay their bills,” she said to cheers from the crowd. “Allies need to put their money where their mouth is!”
“RuPaul’s Drag Race” contestant, singer-songwriter, and trans activist Peppermint spoke about the mixed feelings the day brings, allowing her to recognize both pride and frustration with the slow-moving progress for the transgender community.
“I love being trans, and it’s inspiring to see more people feel comfortable expressing who they are,” Peppermint said to the crowd. “But I’m disappointed that we have to march for our rights. I’m disappointed that we have to convince people who we are, while we’ve been here supporting them all along. I’m disappointed that not enough people show up when the trans community is under attack.”
Last year, a record number of anti-trans policies passed through state and federal legislatures — many originating from Republican lawmakers who argue such measures are necessary for safety. Idaho voted to make it a criminal offense to use the bathroom aligned with one’s gender identity if it does not match sex assigned at birth, setting up a bounty-style enforcement system. Twenty-seven states have banned sports participation for transgender children, primarily targeting transgender girls, citing fairness and safety — claims that research has shown are not supported by evidence. Last month, Kansas’s state Senate voted to invalidate driver’s licenses and birth certificates of trans residents who had updated their gender markers, while also defining sex strictly as assigned at birth.
Peppermint highlighted the specific cruelty of these policies and echoed the rally’s broader message.
“People are being asked to make an agreement to throw us under the bus. You’re watching our civil rights be stripped away like it’s entertainment. When you empower a government to take rights from some, you empower it to take rights from everyone,” the Broadway performer added. “That’s the reality we’re facing.”
She finished by affirming those present and pointing toward the future of the fight for equal treatment under the law.
“Trans people are women, men, nonbinary, immigrants, disabled — every kind of person. We are here, and we are inevitable. I’m disappointed — but I’m hopeful. I’m grateful — and you should be too,” Peppermint said. “I love you, I’m in awe of you, and I am grateful for you. I’m proud to stand with this diverse trans community. We have always shown up for others, year after year. And we’re still here.”
Rabbi Abby Stein framed the moment through a spiritual and historical lens, offering an alternative to narratives often pushed by conservative lawmakers and commentators.
“They’ve moved past trying to erase us — they’re using us. We have become the rock they’re using to hit the people they want to oppress,” Stein said. “We are visible, but we’ve been forced into a narrow place. That’s the reality of this moment.”
She continued, explaining that, despite what some have said, her trans identity reaffirms her religion and strengthens her Jewish faith.
“For generations, we’ve told stories about leaving narrow places. Those narrow places exist today — in closets, in systems, in the ways people try to restrict us. But we have always found a way out. That is our history and our power.”
“Coming out and being who you are isn’t just okay — it’s a spiritual obligation. It is powerful, and it is necessary. If you try to take away our visibility, our rights, and our joy, you will fail. We are going to win because we will keep fighting together.”
Other activists that spoke included military members who had been forced out of their jobs and benefits following the Trump-Vance administration’s return to banning transgender military members, including SPARTA Pride Executive Director and US Army Major Kara Corcoran and Air Force Master Sgt. Logan Ireland, both focusing their time on stage on sharing how they gave their country their lives, yet the president couldn’t accept their gender identity.
Others who spoke/performed included the queer cheerleading group Cheer DC, local trans DJ and organizer Samson, and Chastity Bowick, Executive Director of Marsha P. Johnson Institute also spoke.

Hack closed with a message centered on their belief in collective action to create a better world for everyone and the resilience of the community.
“We’ve been fighting in the halls of power, and I’m proud of how far we’ve come. This week is about educating, advocating, and rallying. There isn’t one strategy to take back our country. It takes all of us … This is not just about trans people — this is about whether the government gets to decide who is acceptable. When one group is targeted, it never stops there. That’s what history shows us. That’s why this moment matters.”
“We’re being scapegoated and forced out of public life. There are efforts to legislate us out of existence. Our freedoms are intertwined — we can’t leave anyone out. They think we’re small, but they’re wrong.”
“The days of respectability politics are over,” Hack said, with rainbow kites lying overhead, signaling a welcome and powerful reflection of the day’s movement — one that echoed the sentiments of those gathered. “Our movement has never needed permission to exist — and we’re not asking for it now. There is something inevitable about a people who refuse to disappear. It is inevitable that we win.”
Senegal
Senegalese president signs bill that further criminalizes homosexuality
Measure passed in National Assembly with near unanimous support
Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye on Tuesday signed into law a bill that further criminalizes consensual same-sex sexual relations in the country.
Lawmakers in the African country on March 11 nearly unanimously passed the measure that increases the penalty for anyone convicted of engaging in consensual same-sex sexual relations from one to five years in prison to five to 10 years. The bill that Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko introduced also prohibits the “promotion” or “financing” of homosexuality in Senegal.
Reuters on March 16 reported MassResistance, an anti-LGBTQ group based in the U.S., worked with Senegalese groups that support the bill. Volker Türk, the U.N. high commissioner for human rights, is among those who urged Faye not to sign it.
The Senegalese National Assembly in 2021 rejected a bill that would have further criminalized homosexuality in the country.
Police in February arrested a dozen men and charged them with committing “unnatural acts.”
Maryland’s legislative caucuses outlined their legislative priorities heading into the final weeks of the 2026 General Assembly during a joint press conference on March 24.
The press conference was titled “We are Maryland,” where a representative for each of the legislative caucuses outlined priorities.
State Del. Kris Fair (D-Frederick County) of the LGBTQ+ Caucus opened the press conference with a statement on the unity of Maryland’s caucus.
“Together we can show our state and our community a different world, one where we mutually support one another and through that support uplift every Marylander,” he said.
In a press conference on March 5, the LGBTQ+ Caucus outlined its top legislative priorities. Fair highlighted two of those bills again during the “We are Maryland” press conference.
The first of the two highlighted pieces of legislation was Senate Bill 626 and House Bill 1589.
The bills would simplify the process of updating an individual’s birth certificate and align the Department of Health and DMV systems to reflect those changes. The bill is being led by state Sen. Clarence Lam (D-Anne Arundel and Howard Counties) and state Del. Ashanti Martinez (D-Prince George’s County).
The second piece of legislation is Senate Bill 950 and House Bill 1209, which would update and modernize laws and regulations around so-called conversion therapy. The bills have failed to pass either chamber thus far. They are being led by state Sen. Cheryl Kagan (D-Montgomery County) and state Del. Bonnie Cullison (D-Montgomery County).
(The U.S. Supreme Court on Tuesday ruled against a Colorado law that bans so-called conversion therapy for minors. Maryland is among the U.S. jurisdictions that prohibit the widely discredited practice for anyone under 18.)
Martinez and Lam have introduced bills in their respective chambers that would expand PrEP access in Maryland. Martinez did not attend the press conference, and Fair did not mention it when he spoke.
State Del. N. Scott Phillips (D-Baltimore County) represented the Black Caucus during the press conference. State Del. Dana Jones (D-Anne Arundel County) spoke on behalf of the Women’s Caucus, State Del. Teresa Woorman (D-Montgomery County) represented the Latino Caucus, and State Del. Lily Qi (D-Montgomery County) represented the Asian-American and Pacific Islander Caucus. State Del. Jared Solomon (D-Montgomery County) represented the Jewish Caucus, and state Del. Sean Stinnett (D-Baltimore County) represented the Muslim Caucus during the press conference.
Solomon ended the press conference by explaining the importance of all the caucuses coming out together.
“We are stronger when we’re together, and many of these issues that we have talked about, again, impact all of us,” said Solomon.
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