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New Year, more of the same D.C. housing trends

Sales remain robust in first quarter of 2019

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homeownership, gay news, Washington Blade
Sellers are optimistic that Amazon will bring a boost to the D.C.-area market.

New year, hot market! After a weaker than usual fall market of 2018, the 2019 market came in with a bang. Sales are robust, buyers are entering the market at a rapid pace (more on this later), days on market are short, and off-market activity has increased. So will this fast pace of the market continue throughout the year? What else do we anticipate for real estate in 2019? As I reviewed my 2018 real estate market predictions, I realized that although much has changed since early 2018, much more has stayed the same. So without further ado, here are my predictions for the 2019 real estate market.

AMAZON – HOW REAL IS THE HYPE?

Everyone is asking how much impact Amazon’s HQ2 will have on our area. While it is too early to tell exactly what the HQ2 future holds, we can tell you what we’ve seen so far. A few Amazon executives have already relocated to our area. We are working and have worked with several buyers from Seattle and have seen a couple of others bring offers on our listings. However, this first round of relocations has been limited and hasn’t impacted the market on a large scale.

We have also seen the Amazon effect in two other areas. First, renters (mostly millennials living in D.C., Arlington, and Alexandria) have decided they want to buy before the large relocations begin, causing a buyer influx in the market. The second effect is a significant increase in consumer confidence locally. While the political climate (which we will talk about later) is a bit more unpredictable with furloughs and unstable interest rates, the news of Amazon’s HQ2 has given both buyers and sellers confidence about our local real estate market — always a good thing. With the news of the New York location possibly being reconsidered, this means only good things for our area. You can read more about our predictions for Amazon’s HQ2 at thegoodhartgroup.com. 

FEBRUARY 2019 UPDATE  

This week, Amazon announced it’s halting plans for its other HQ2 site in Queens, N.Y., due to a lack of support from local government officials and the community. Amazon officials insist that pulling out of the Long Island City location does NOT mean they’re searching for a new HQ2 site. Its expansion plans will proceed focused on the National Landing site outside D.C. and Nashville hub locations. Amazon’s 17 other hubs will absorb the remaining jobs. However, local officials are not ruling out the possibility of more jobs at Amazon’s Crystal City location. Stephanie Landrum, president and CEO of the Alexandria Economic Development Partnership, said the state’s package was structured to allow for the possibility of up to 37,500 local Amazon jobs, an additional 50% on top of the planned 25,000. Of course, more area jobs means only good news for home values in our region.

MILLENNIALS: HIGH EXPECTATIONS

This resurgence of high-end millennial buyers who entered the market in 2018 also created demand for new construction and renovated homes. Why are these younger luxury buyers so interested in newer renovated properties, especially in our historic town? Many are dual-income families who do not have the time, vision, or cash to update an older home. But, these buyers still want their home to look good. We millennials have come of age in a visual society (thank you, Instagram and Pinterest) where we expect everything to look good, all the time.

This desire for new and improved homes has meant intense competition over the few available lots and small homes on lots over 5,000 square feet that could be expanded and renovated.

Unfortunately for many buyers looking for starter homes in our market, most single-family homes in close-in neighborhoods listed under $800,000 were scooped up in multiple offer situations by builders making all cash, no contingencies offers. As a result, many first and second time buyers were edged out of the running.

THE POLITICAL CLIMATE: IT’S ALL ABOUT POTRUXI

So, what in the heck is PoTruXi? ProTruXi is an abbreviation for the three people who will shape the course of the national economy this year.

Po = Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve. What the Fed does over the next year will matter, big time. Interest rates have been especially volatile and quite a bit higher than they were at this time last year. It’s been predicted that rates would continue to rise throughout 2019, but we have seen the Fed pump the brakes a bit on their plans to raise rates. Rising interest rates play a huge role in the health of the real estate market as they can dramatically impact affordability. We anticipate rates to rise only subtly this year – versus the expectation at the end of 2018 that they would continue to rise aggressively. This is good news!

Tru = President Trump – and actually, Congress too. What happens here in D.C. has major ramifications for our economy and our real estate market, both nationally and locally. With a Democratic House of Representatives and a Republican Senate, the balance of power could provide to be a positive for the market. Why? Often it means that extremist policy on either side of the aisle is unlikely to be passed which improves consumer confidence. The big unknown locally is how we will weather another possible government shutdown. The January shutdown didn’t have a large impact on our market as a whole. However, if Trump and Congress continue their stalemate, it may cause more of a problem in the future.

Xi = China’s President Xi. The ability to strike a trade deal between the U.S. and China will also matter. The current turbulence around trade is fueling a lack of confidence and stock market volatility. Many U.S. companies are reliant on growth in China and tariffs on construction materials have made both renovating and building less affordable. We already have a chronic shortage of housing, especially affordable housing, so I would anticipate trade becoming more of a hot button issue as we get closer to elections.

THE FUTURE OF TECHNOLOGY 

Last year, I predicted biometrics and artificial intelligence would make their appearance as new trends in the industry. Biometrics has become more mainstream in our everyday world as consumers embraced the iPhone X and Clear security at the airport. However, we still haven’t seen it become mainstream in the real estate world but the whispers continue that it is coming.

I also predicted artificial intelligence would become a part of the real estate space and there were significant strides in this arena in 2018, both inside and outside of real estate. On the real estate front, last year I referenced a futuristic sign that could interact with consumers that was “teased” at a conference I attended. In 2018, this sign was unveiled by Compass! In fact, the moment Robert Reffkin, the CEO of Compass, introduced the idea of the sign, a spark of interest about this growing company was ignited for our team. Of course, in June of 2018, we officially joined Compass and are so proud to be a part of a company that is advancing the world of real estate forward. With the hiring of Microsoft’s former Chief of Technology, Compass is also rolling out an artificial intelligence program that will improve both the consumer and agent experiences.

THE REAL STORY OF 2019

While all of these factors will play a role, the real story of 2019 market in the DC Metro areais historically low inventory which is impacting buyers and sellers of all agents in all price points. While our market has experienced low inventory for the last two or three years, we are seeing even more fierce competition and bidding wars already in 2019. After being strategically staged and marketed with a coming soon campaign, one of our listings in Rosemont recently had 13 offers and sold well over asking with no contingencies. This is great news for sellers and not-so-great news for buyers. It will be critical for buyers to work with an agent plugged into the market.

Because of this low inventory, we are seeing more off-market activity, with fewer homes going on the active market.

As a result, most active buyers aren’t even hearing about available homes until they are already under contract.

THE BOTTOM LINE – OUR MARKET IS STRONG

So, what does all of this mean when taken together? More buyers in the market and fewer sellers mean that we are likely going to be in a sellers’ market in 2019. That being said, sellers still need to stage and price their homes appropriately to generate interest in today’s highly visual world. When they do, they are being rewarded with excellent contracts. Sellers can capitalize on the stalemated interest rates and excitement over Amazon. Buyers can lock in still low rates before they rise.

All in all, the first half of 2019 is shaping up to be a strong market. We will be closely watching the political climate and the plans for Amazon’s expansion to see how things look for the second half of the year. In the meantime, if we can help you with your real estate goals in any way, please don’t hesitate to reach out. We are always here to help!

Allison Goodhart DuShuttle is with Compass Real Estate. Led by Sue & Allison Goodhart, they have been named a Top Agent by both Washingtonian and Northern Virginia magazines. Allison can be reached at 703-362-3221 or [email protected]

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Real Estate

In real estate, it’s déjà vu all over again

1970s and ‘80s volatility led to creative financing options

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In the 1970s and ‘80s, sellers used creative mortgage options to entice buyers. Some of those trends are appearing again now.

In the 1970s and 1980s, mortgage interest rates climbed into the double digits and peaked above 18%. With rates like that, you needed more than a steady job and a down payment to buy a home — you needed creative financing ideas. 

Today’s market challenges may look different, but the response has been surprisingly familiar: unusual financing methods are making a comeback, along with some new ones that didn’t exist decades ago. Here is a brief overview of the most popular tools from that era. 

Assumable Mortgages were available with FHA, VA, and USDA loans and, until 1982, even Conventional mortgages. They allowed a buyer to take over the seller’s existing mortgage, including its interest rate, rather than getting a brand-new loan, while compensating the seller for the difference between the assumed loan balance and the contract price.

Often, a seller played a substantial role in a purchase. With Seller Financing (Owner Carry) the seller became the bank, letting the buyer make payments directly to them instead of to a traditional lender.

One variation on Seller Financing was the Land Contract. The seller was still the lender, but the buyer made loan payments to the seller, who then paid his own mortgage and pocketed the difference. The buyer would receive equitable title (the right to use and occupy the property), while the seller kept the title or deed until the contract was paid off or the property sold.

With Wraparound Mortgages, the seller created a new, larger loan for the buyer that “wrapped” around the existing mortgage at an agreed-upon rate. The buyer would then pay the seller, who would continue making mortgage payments on the existing balance, collecting payments and pocketing the spread. Whether title conveyed to the buyer or remained with the seller was negotiated between the parties. 

Unlike an assumption, when buying a home Subject To an existing mortgage, the buyer took title to the property and agreed to pay the seller’s mortgage directly to the lender plus any equity to the seller; the mortgage stayed in the seller’s name. Now, most mortgages have a Due on Sale clause that prohibits this kind of transaction without the expressed consent of the lender. 

Rent-to-Own was also a popular way to get into a home. While a potential buyer rented a property, the seller would offer an option to purchase for a set amount to be exercised at a later date (lease option) or allow a portion of the rent collected to be considered as a downpayment once accrued (lease purchase).

Graduated Payment Mortgage (GPM) loans were authorized by the banking industry in the mid-1970s and Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARM) surfaced in the early 1980s. Both featured low initial payments that gradually increased over time. 

With the GPM, although lower than market to start, the interest rate was fixed and payment increases were scheduled. A buyer could rely on the payment amount and save accordingly. 

ARMs, on the other hand, had interest rates that could change based on the market index, with less predictability and a higher risk of rate shocks, as we saw during the Great Recession from 2007-2009.

While mortgage rates today aren’t anywhere near the extremes of the 1980s, buyers still face a tough environment: higher prices, limited inventory, and stricter lending standards. That combination has pushed people to explore tried and true alternatives and add new ones. 

Assumable mortgages and ARMs are on the table again and seller financing is still worth exploring. Just last week, I overheard a colleague asking about a land contract.

Lenders are beginning to use Alternative Credit Evaluation indicators, like rental payment history or bank cash-flow analysis, to assess borrower strength when making mortgage loan decisions.

There are Shared Equity Programs, where companies or nonprofits contribute part of a down payment in exchange for a share of the home’s future appreciation. With Crowdfunding Platforms, investors pool money online to finance real estate purchases or developments.

Another unconventional idea being debated today is the 50-year mortgage, designed to help buyers manage high home prices. Such a mortgage would have a 50-year repayment term, rather than the standard 30 years, lowering monthly payments by stretching them over a longer period.

Supporters argue that a 50-year mortgage could make monthly payments significantly more affordable for first-time buyers who feel priced out of the market. Critics, however, warn that while the monthly payment may be lower, the lifetime interest cost would be much higher.

What ties the past and present together is necessity. As long as affordability remains strained, creative financing – old and new – will continue to shape the way real estate gets bought and sold. As with everything real estate, my question will always be, “What’s next?”


Valerie M. Blake is a licensed Associate Broker in D.C., Maryland, and Virginia with RLAH @properties. Call or text her at 202-246-8602, email her at [email protected] or follow her on Facebook at TheRealst8ofAffairs.

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Real Estate

Could lower rates, lagging condo sales lure buyers to the table?

With pandemic behind us, many are making moves

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Condo sellers may offer buyers incentives to purchase their home. (Photo by Grand Warszawski/Bigstock)

Before the interest rates shot up around 2022, many buyers were making moves due to a sense of confinement, a sudden need to work from home, desire for space of their own, or just a general desire to shake up their lives.  In large metro areas like NYC, DC, Boston, Chicago, Miami and other markets where rents could be above $2k-$3k, people did the math and started thinking, “I could take the $30,000 a year I spend in rent and put that in an investment somewhere.”  

Then rates went up, people started staying put and decided to nest in the new home where they had just received a near 3% interest rate.  For others, the higher rates and inflation meant that dollars were just stretching less than they used to.  

Now – it’s been five  years since the onset of the pandemic, people who bought four years ago may be feeling the “itch” to move again, and the rates have started dropping down closer to 5% from almost 7% a few years ago.  

This could be a good opportunity for first time buyers to get into the market.  Rents have not shown much of a downward trend. There may be some condo sellers who are ready to move up into a larger home, or they may be finding that the job they have had for the last several years has “squeezed all the juice out of the fruit” and want to start over in a new city.  

Let’s review how renting a home and buying can be very different experiences:

  • The monthly payment stays (mostly) the same.  P.I.T.I. – Principal, Interest, Taxes and Insurance – those are the four main components of a home payment.  The taxes and insurance can change, but not as much or as frequently as a rent payment. These also may depend on where you buy, and how simple or complex a condo building is.
  • Condo fees help pay for the amenities in the building, put money in the building’s reserve funds account (an account used for savings for capital improvement projects, maintenance, and upkeep or additions to amenities)
  • Condos have restrictions on rental types and usage – AirBnB and may not be an option, and there could be a wait list to rent.  Most condo associations and lenders don’t like to see more than 50% of a building rented out to non-owner occupants.  Why?  Owners tend to take better care of their own building. 
  • A homeowner needs to keep a short list of available plumbers, electricians, maintenance people, HVAC service providers, painters, etc.
  • Condo owners usually attend their condo association meetings or at least read the notices or minutes to keep abreast of planned maintenance in the building, usage of facilities, and rules and regulations.  

Moving from renting to homeownership can be well worth the investment of time and energy.  After living in a home for five years, a condo owner might decide to sell, and find that when they close out the contract and turn the keys over to the new owner, they have participated in a “forced savings plan” and frequently receive tens of thousands of dollars for their investment that might have otherwise gone into the hands of a landlord.  

In addition, condo sellers may offer buyers incentives to purchase their home, if a condo has been sitting on the market for some time. A seller could offer such items as:

  • A pre-paid home warranty on the major appliances or systems of the house for the first year or two – that way if something breaks, it might be covered under the warranty.
  • Closing cost incentives – some sellers will help a cash strapped buyer with their closing costs.  One fun “trick” realtors suggest can be offering above the sales price of the condo, with a credit BACK to the buyer toward their closing costs.  *there are caveats to this plan
  • Flexible closing dates – some buyers need to wait until a lease is finished.
  • A seller may have already had the home “pre-inspected” and leave a copy of the report for the buyer to see, to give them peace of mind that a 3rd party has already looked at the major appliances and systems in the house. 

If the idea of perpetual renting is getting old, ask a Realtor or a lender what they can do to help you get into investing your money today. There are lots of ways to invest, but one popular way to do so is to put it where your rent check would normally go. And like any kind of seedling, that investment will grow over time. 


Joseph Hudson is a referral agent with Metro Referrals. He can be reached at 703-587-0597 or [email protected].

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How federal layoffs, shutdown threaten D.C.-area landlords

When paychecks disappear, the shock doesn’t stop at the Beltway

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The government shutdown continues. (Washington Blade photo by Michael Key)

When federal paychecks disappear, the shock doesn’t stop at the Beltway. It lands on the doorsteps of the region’s property owners, those who rent out their rowhouses in Petworth, condos in Crystal City, and homes stretching into Montgomery and Prince George’s counties. Landlords depend on steady rent from tenants employed by the very institutions that are now downsized or worse, shuttered.

This fall, Washington’s economic identity is being tested once again. Thousands of federal workers who accepted “deferred resignation” packages will soon lose their income altogether. And with a long government shutdown looming, even those still on the payroll face delayed paychecks. For landlords, that combination of uncertainty and sudden income loss threatens to unsettle a rental market already balancing on the edge.

A Test of Resilience

Rosie Allen-Herring, president of United Way of the National Capital Area, recently told The Washington Post, “This region stands to take a hard hit from those who are no longer employed but can’t find new employment and now find themselves in need. It’s a full-circle moment to be a donor and now find yourself in need, but it is very real for this area.” 1 That reversal captures the broader moment: The D.C. economy built on federal paychecks and charitable giving now faces a stress test of compassion and cash flow alike.  

For landlords, adaptability will determine who weathers the storm. Those who are able to keep the rent coming in, retain their tenants or find replacement tenants without the same economic hardships are going to be able to get to the other side with manageable financial disruptions. Those who plan, communicate, and stay financially flexible will keep their properties occupied and their reputations intact.

A Region Built on Federal Pay

Roughly one in ten jobs in the Washington metropolitan area is tied directly to the federal government, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That number climbs sharply when you include contractors, nonprofits, and think tanks dependent on federal funding. 

This concentration means that when the federal government sneezes, D.C.’s housing market catches a cold. The Brookings Institution recently reported that since January, the region’s unemployment rate has climbed eight times faster than the national average, and local job growth has flattened. 1  More anecdotal, I’ve spoken with property owners this year who are looking to rent out the property they own in DC because they have to move to another region for work.

As The Post observed, “The region has shed federal jobs at a higher rate, and both the number of homes for sale and the share of residents with low credit scores have grown more quickly here than the rest of the country.” 1

For landlords, that’s a flashing warning light. When a certain category of tenants with solid compensation lose reliable government salaries and face dim re-employment prospects, rent becomes harder to collect and rent levels can decline year on year.

The Human Side of a Policy Shock

The people behind these statistics are often long-tenured civil servants. The Post profiled former State Department employee Brian Naranjo, who said he had “unsuccessfully thrown his résumé at more than 50 positions since resigning in May.” “It’s terrible,” Naranjo told the paper. “You have far more people going for those very specialized jobs than would normally be out there.” 1

Another displaced worker, Jennifer Malenab, a 42-year-old former Department of Homeland Security employee, described canceling daycare and family vacations while she scours job boards. “This is not where you want to be at 42, with a family,” she said. 1

When households like these lose steady pay, not only do they pull back on spending, but if they are renters landlords may see a lag in rent receipts, requests for partial payments, or in some cases, a premature notice to vacate. Some tenants will relocate out of the region altogether — a prospect already visible in rising “for sale” listings and increased moving-truck activity in Northern Virginia and suburban Maryland.

What Happens When the Rent Doesn’t Arrive

When rent payments are disrupted, even temporarily, the financial effects can be immediate. Many small landlords depend on rent to cover their mortgages, property taxes, insurance premiums, and routine maintenance. Even a temporary interruption in income can deplete reserves, delay repairs, and strain their ability to meet loan obligations.

Larger multifamily owners are not immune. If multiple tenants in a building lose income at once, cash flow can fall sharply. During the brief 2019 government shutdown, some D.C. landlords offered short-term payment plans to furloughed workers with the expectation of eventual back pay. However, under current conditions, where many positions are being permanently eliminated and paychecks may not be restored, landlords face much greater uncertainty and cannot assume repayment will be guaranteed.

In the District of Columbia, the Rental Housing Commission has advised landlords to continue operating strictly within established legal procedures and to avoid informal or selective payment arrangements that could be interpreted as discriminatory under the D.C. Human Rights Act. Courts in Virginia and Maryland allow temporary continuances when tenants provide documentation of a federal furlough or income disruption, but it is the court, not the landlord, that determines eligibility for relief.

How Landlords Should Proceed  

  • Continue filing nonpayment cases through normal legal channels rather than delaying action.
  • Allow the courts to apply any continuance or relief provisions if a tenant qualifies due to federal employment status or income interruption.
  • Avoid making selective accommodations based on a tenant’s job type or federal employment status, as this may violate equal-treatment and source-of-income protections.

Landlords with a single tenant or a consistent written policy of offering payment plans to all tenants experiencing verified income disruption should not be at risk of discriminatory treatment. 

Vacancy, Concessions, and Shifting Demand

Beyond nonpayment of rent, landlords face a challenge from a different direction: weak demand. As fewer jobs are being created and unemployed or under-employed tenants move out of DC, the supply of available rental units will rise, forcing landlords to compete more aggressively on price and amenities.

Market data already point that direction. The volume of rental listings across the District of Columbia jumped roughly 14 percent year-over-year in September, according to the realtor Multiple Listing Service (MLS) trends, as reported by the Washington Business Journal. Landlords are offering free parking, one-month concessions, or flexible leases to retain quality tenants.

Neighborhoods once buffered by federal stability like Silver Spring, Falls Church, and Alexandria may now see higher tenant turnover. As one Arlington property manager put it, “We used to say federal employees were the safest tenants in America. Now we’re rewriting that rule.”

A Shrinking Workforce, a Softer Market

In addition to the layoffs, the region is contending with a broader identity crisis. “Yesim Sayin, executive director of the D.C. Policy Center, put it bluntly: ‘Beyond federal employment, we relied on tourism. But foreign tourists aren’t coming. And we relied a whole lot on universities bringing talent who would then stay here and be part of our talent pool. And that is kind of gone, too. So what are we now? We just don’t know.’” 1

This uncertainty may impact property values and investor sentiment. When employers relocate, renters follow. If enough mid-career professionals leave, demand for rentals will first soften and then we’ll begin to see a lowering of the average rents a landlord can command for their rental. We have already seen this in the current rental market. Rents that seems reasonable a few years ago, are now being discounted by hundreds of dollars. Landlords who are searching for new renters after several years of having tenants are finding that they need to bring rent levels below where they used to be to secure tenants commitments.

Strategies for Landlords: Staying Solvent and Supportive

In times like these, survival depends on both prudence and empathy.

1. Communicate early. Encourage tenants to disclose financial hardship before missing payments. Written payment plans, properly documented, can forestall eviction while preserving goodwill.

2. Review legal protections. Understand D.C., Maryland, and Virginia rules regarding furlough continuances or income-source discrimination. Seek legal counsel before altering lease terms mid-cycle.

3. Build reserves and credit access. Line up a home-equity or business line of credit to bridge shortfalls. Cash on hand always is helpful to have as a buffer for the impact of income disruption. 

4. Monitor policy developments.  State and local governments are supporting people who are affected by the lay-offs. Landlords can benefit indirectly through their renters who are utilizing these programs to assist them in paying their monthly expenses. 

5. Contact your Congressional representatives to demand the reopening of the federal government. And in D.C., you do benefit from representation, even though they cannot vote. They can influence decisions that matter. 


Scott Bloom is owner and senior property manager of Columbia Property Management.

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