Real Estate
Predictions for 2024 D.C. real estate market
Declining interest rates and low inventory likely
As we head into 2024 with hopes of our weight dropping, one thing we are seeing, that is actually happening, is mortgage rates are dropping.
For obvious reasons it is hard to predict what 2024 holds for mortgage rates and market stability. I prefer to collect a few top-notch professionals and then sprinkle in some Bravo. For this article, we will take a look at predictions from Fannie Mae, one of the large players in the mortgage industry. Next we will take a look at what the National Association of Realtors has to say (NAR) and finally…we will mix in some of Ryan Serhants two cents. I enjoy Ryan mainly because he has gray hair like I do.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the two largest players in the mortgage industry and as such, I always like to take a look at their projections as they trend toward truth. Fannie Mae predicts that the average rate will be right around 6.7% with a strong belief that they will not fall below six percent. Obviously that is not the 3% we were seeing during the pandemic, but we were seeing a lot during the pandemic that most of us don’t want to see again. More importantly Fannie Mae predicts that the housing market will remain compressed as the low inventory levels remain in full effect. On the flip side, they do project that home prices will increase by 2.4% compared to last year and this is likely the perfect storm combo of lower, more manageable rates, combined with consistently low inventory. Simple supply and demand will raise home prices. This is an interesting take away because most buyers believe that the market is returning to pre-pandemic prices but projections tell us that is not the case.
The next heavy hitter we are going to take a look at is the National Association of Realtors. Aside from all of their bad press as of late – we are simply looking at their projections for 2024 as these are historically pretty spot on. For starters, NAR is predicting that the number of national home sales will increase by nearly 14% compared to 2023, which is a massive increase when taking a look at the interest rates. NAR believes that the national average home price will pretty much stay the same, however with the lowered interest rate when looking at last year, this will indeed help with home ownership affordability for this year. Similarly to Fannie Mae, NAR believes the mortgage rate to be lowest at 6.3% while that is not what they believe to be the average rate.
Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, Ryan Serhant from ‘Million Dollar Listing N.Y.’ For starters, Ryan relies heavily on the reminder that not long ago we were in the uncharted times of COVID. Much of our lives, industries, and the world have been changed and while some things have returned to normal, we truly won’t see the correction for other things happening for quite some time, if ever. One of those markets being the real estate market, which likely won’t correct for some time. One of the reasons is the high number of remote workers. While some of us have returned to our offices and water cooler chit chat, a large number of employers are still riding high on the lack of office space and tighter margins. As such, many buyers are looking at markets outside of metro areas that are a bit more affordable. Serhant predicts that in 2024 this trend will continue and while there won’t be a huge mass exodus from metro areas, there will be an increase in those markets with some tumbleweeds. He also predicts, similarly, that suburbs will see a large increase in interest as city dwellers want yards and a garage and some more space to stretch out. One powerful take away from Serhant is this quote: “Remember, markets shouldn’t dictate your outcomes. They should only dictate your strategy.”
To take a few paragraphs and summarize them while curating for our D.C. metro market I would say the following predictions should be heavily weighted. In 2024, we will see an increase in home sales across the D.C. area with focus on more suburban and rural areas where buyers get a little more space for their dollars as well as a longer term investment. Think Gaithersburg, Upper Marlboro and Bowie, and smaller towns near Middleburg. We will see mortgage rates steady out around the mid 6% range, which will make home buying more affordable for lots of folks. Unfortunately we will also see inventory levels remain lower than average with new inventory slower to launch on the market. When looking at the simple understanding of supply and demand, we have lower interest rates, which means more buyers will return to the market that had previously left due to being priced out, combining that with the consistent low inventory will likely cause a greater demand that we saw in 2023 in our market which will result in a stable and strong real estate for 2024.
One surefire way to make sure you are geared up and ready for the real estate market is to work alongside a real estate agent that has their pulse on the local market you wish to transact in as well as an understanding of current economic times. I also have a list of great personal trainers if you want to work on that other 2024 resolution.
Justin Noble is a Realtor with Sotheby’s international Realty licensed in D.C., Maryland, and Delaware for your DMV and Delaware Beach needs. Specializing in first-time homebuyers, development and new construction as well as estate sales, Justin is a well-versed agent, highly regarded, and provides white glove service at every price point. Reach him at 202-503-4243, [email protected] or BurnsandNoble.com.
Real Estate
Avoiding the basement blahs
Renovating a lower level can add significant value to your home
Sadly, we have waved goodbye to summer and are now slowly shifting from enjoying outdoor activities to things we can do indoors. If you are lucky enough to have a basement, renovating it into livable space can be a great winter project to dramatically increase the functionality and value of your home.
Basements come with unique challenges due to their location below ground level, and overlooking critical aspects can lead to long-term problems. They are particularly vulnerable to dampness. Failure to address moisture can lead to mold growth, structural damage, and health hazards.
To tackle moisture control, start by checking for water leaks or seepage through the walls and floor. If moisture is present, you may need to apply waterproofing solutions to the exterior or interior walls of your home. Installing a vapor barrier is advisable to prevent condensation from damaging insulation and walls.
Make sure the basement has proper drainage systems, such as a sump pump and foundation drainage. The sump pump can remove water that collects around the foundation, while an effective drainage system redirects water away from the home. Installing a dehumidifier can also help.
Basements also tend to be colder than the rest of the house. Proper insulation in the walls and floor helps regulate temperature, reducing heating costs in winter and maintaining a cool, comfortable, and energy efficient environment in summer. Insulating the ceiling can reduce noise transfer between the basement and the upper floors, making the space quieter and more private.
Before any significant work begins, it’s crucial to assess the basement’s structural integrity. This includes checking the foundation for cracks or signs of shifting, which could indicate a bigger problem, particular with the plethora of old houses in the area.
If you notice any large cracks or signs of movement, consult a structural engineer or foundation expert to determine whether repairs are needed. Small cracks can be sealed, but larger ones may require reinforcement or more extensive foundation work.
Depending on local building codes, you may need to install egress windows if you are adding bedrooms or turning the basement into a rental unit. Egress windows provide an escape route in case of emergencies and allow more natural light to enter the space, making it feel more welcoming.
When adding a bathroom or kitchen, you’ll find that installing plumbing in a basement can be more challenging because of the need to pump wastewater upwards. You may need a macerating toilet system or a sewage ejector pump to manage this. I learned this the first time I found that, contrary to what we have been told, water can indeed travel up.
Adding more outlets, lighting, appliances, and ventilation systems may necessitate electrical upgrades. Since basements are often unfinished, you may have exposed wiring, which should be properly enclosed or rerouted to meet code. Depending on the scope of the renovation, you might need to upgrade your home’s electrical panel to handle the increased demand.
Proper ventilation is often overlooked in basement renovations but is essential for maintaining air quality and preventing the buildup of stale air or harmful gases. Installing mechanical ventilation, such as an HRV (Heat Recovery Ventilator) or an ERV (Energy Recovery Ventilator), can help ensure a consistent flow of fresh air in the basement.
Radon, a naturally occurring radioactive gas, can enter homes through cracks in the foundation. Since radon exposure is a leading cause of lung cancer, it’s wise to test for it before beginning the renovation. If elevated levels are detected, you may need to install a mitigation system.
Once the technical aspects are addressed, focus on creating a functional and aesthetically pleasing layout. The design of your basement will depend on how you plan to use the space, whether it’s a guest room, home theater, office, workout area, or game room.
Since natural light is limited in basements, it is important to plan your lighting carefully. Recessed lighting is a popular choice because it doesn’t take up ceiling space, but you should also consider adding floor lamps and sconces to make the space feel brighter and more inviting.
Choose flooring that can withstand moisture, such as vinyl planks, tile, or sealed concrete. Since basements can double as storage areas, consider incorporating built-in shelving, closets, or under-stair storage to maximize the available space.
Whether doing it yourself or hiring professionals, renovating a basement is a rewarding project that can add significant value to your home, but it comes with challenges. From moisture control and insulation to plumbing and air quality, careful planning is crucial to ensure a comfortable, functional, and safe space to enjoy indoor hobbies and emerge from winter free from the Basement Blahs.
Valerie M. Blake is a licensed Associate Broker in DC, MD & VA with RLAH Real Estate / @properties. Call or text her at (202) 246-8602, email her at DCHomeQuest.com, or follow her on Facebook at TheRealst8ofAffairs.
As interest rates begin to cool off for the first time in a few years, prospective “first time homebuyers” may have their wheels spinning again about whether it’s a good idea to buy a home. Still, the idea of home ownership may feel out of reach for some; historically, the prevalence of homeowners has been low in certain subsets of the population. It wasn’t until the 1900’s that laws were enacted to grant women and people of color equal access to property ownership:
1968: The Fair Housing Act prohibited discrimination in home buying, homeownership, and rental real estate based on sex, race, religion, and other protected classes.
1974: The Equal Credit Opportunity Act (ECOA) prohibited discrimination in consumer credit practices based on sex, marital status, and other factors. This made it easier for women to buy homes by allowing them to apply for loans and credit without a male co-signer.
Even with these laws in place, socioeconomic disparities and lack of access to generational wealth have slowed progress in this area. Generational wealth occurs when resources are passed on to family members when the family homeowner or the head of household passes away. In areas like D.C. this type of asset can be worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, and can be used to pay off student loans, help younger members of the family purchase their first or second homes wherever they live, or be invested in other ways.
While this may have been the key to buying property in the past, people today are pursuing homeownership for themselves and their own means — especially women. Many real estate agents in the D.C. metro area can testify that they are working with individuals who are the first in their family — and often the first woman in their family — to buy a home. The days of waiting until marriage to invest in property are slipping away; these days people marry later, may not stay married, or may choose not to marry at all. “I didn’t consider buying a home at first, because I didn’t really see myself as a “typical” homeowner; I was single and wasn’t sitting on a stockpile of cash,” says Jordyn White, a D.C. resident who bought her first home at 29. “A trusted friend encouraged me to explore first-time homebuyer programs, and I’m glad I did. My monthly mortgage payment is similar to what I would likely pay to rent in the same area, and now I have created a path to generational wealth for my children.”
The rates of homeownership for people of color and women are steadily rising. A 2023 Pew Research Center survey using 2022 census data found that single women owned 58 percent of the nearly 35.2 million homes owned by unmarried Americans, while single men owned 42 percent. Single homeowners have peace of mind in knowing that they own assets by themselves.
Compass real estate agent Katri Hunter has helped many of her clients buy their first home. She reports, “I find more and more that I have single clients that approach me in their early/mid-30’s and say that they thought they would be buying their first property with a significant other and then decided to take things into their own hands … I tell people all the time to consult an estate planner when and if they do decide to get married to discuss pre-marital assets and keeping those in their own name. I think people really take more pride and ownership buying property on their own rather than something they dread.”
Katri Hunter can be reached at [email protected]. Joseph Hudson is a referral agent with Metro Referrals. He can be reached at 703-587-0597 or [email protected]
Real Estate
Ensuring safer water in rentals with ‘Lead Free DC’ initiative
An excellent opportunity for landlords to replace old service lines
Maintaining a safe and healthy environment for your tenants is a top priority as a landlord in the District of Columbia. One critical aspect of this responsibility is ensuring the water in your rental properties is free from lead contamination. The “Lead-Free DC” initiative, led by DC Water and supported by the District of Columbia, offers an excellent opportunity for landlords to replace old lead service lines and contribute to the broader effort of safeguarding public health.
Why Lead-Free Water Matters
Lead exposure is a serious health concern, particularly for young children and pregnant women. However, even in rental properties where no small children currently reside, lead in drinking water poses an ongoing risk to all occupants. Long-term exposure to lead can lead to various health issues, including cognitive impairment, cardiovascular problems, and developmental delays. As such, addressing lead pipes is not just a matter of compliance but a strategic investment in the long-term value and safety of your property.
Resources Available to Landlords
The District of Columbia, through DC Water’s “Lead-Free DC” initiative, provides several resources to help landlords replace lead service lines:
1. Free Pipe Replacement: DC Water offers free replacement of lead pipes on public property, such as the pipes running under streets and sidewalks. This service is available to all property owners, including landlords, and significantly reduces the cost burden of making your rental property lead-free.
2. Partial Replacement Assistance: For lead pipes on private property (e.g., those running from the property line to your building), DC Water offers partial financial assistance. The cost to replace these pipes is typically shared between DC Water and the property owner, reducing the overall expense.
3. DC Lead Pipe Replacement Assistance Program (LPRAP): This program specifically helps low-income residents replace lead pipes on their property at no cost. While it primarily targets homeowners, landlords with qualifying properties may also benefit from this program.
4. Federal Programs: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) provide grants and low-interest loans to property owners for lead hazard reduction, including pipe replacement. These programs can further alleviate the financial burden associated with removing lead from your rental properties.
Strategic Value of Going Lead-Free
Investing in lead pipe replacement is a strategic move that offers significant long-term benefits:
• Increased Property Value: As awareness of lead-related health risks grows, properties with modern, lead-free infrastructure are likely to become more desirable and command higher market values.
• Tenant Retention and Attraction: Tenants increasingly prioritize health and safety in their living environments. A lead-free property can be a key selling point, helping you retain current tenants and attract new ones.
• Regulatory Compliance: As regulations surrounding lead in drinking water continue to tighten, staying ahead of the curve can save you from potential legal issues and costly retrofits in the future.
• Community Contribution: By participating in the “Lead-Free DC” initiative, you are not only protecting your tenants but also contributing to the broader effort of making the District of Columbia a healthier place to live.
Understanding Potential Costs
While much of the pipe replacement work is covered by DC Water and other programs, there may be some additional costs to consider. For example, once the old lead pipes are removed, the area where the pipes were accessed might need restoration. This could include patching up driveways, sidewalks, or landscaping around the foundation of your property. Although these costs are relatively minor compared to the health and safety benefits, it’s essential to budget for them when planning the work.
A “No-Brainer” Decision for Landlords
Replacing lead pipes is more than just a necessary update—it’s a no-brainer decision that will pay dividends in the long run. The peace of mind that comes from knowing your rental property is free from lead risks is invaluable, and the potential increase in property value and tenant satisfaction makes it a wise investment.
Take advantage of the resources available through the “Lead-Free DC” initiative and other programs to ensure your rental properties offer safe, lead-free water for all tenants, now and in the future.
Further Access Information for Readers:
DC Water – Lead-Free DC Program:
https://www.dcwater.com/resources/lead
This page provides detailed information about the Lead-Free DC initiative, including how to apply for pipe replacements and available assistance programs.
DC Water – Lead Pipe Replacement Assistance Program (LPRAP):
This page offers insights into the Lead Pipe Replacement Assistance Program, focusing on how low-income property owners can receive help in replacing lead pipes.
EPA – Lead in Drinking Water:
https://www.epa.gov/ground-water-and-drinking-water/basic-information-about-lead-drinking-water
This URL covers essential information on the risks of lead in drinking water and federal programs available to help property owners.
Scott Bloom is owner and Senior Property Manager of Columbia Property Management. For more information and resources, go to ColumbiaPM.com.
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