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Super Tuesday could bring more confusion to GOP race

High stakes as 437 delegates up for grabs next week

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The winding road of the Republican presidential primary race continues next week as GOP voters in 10 states weigh in on who should be their standard-bearer heading into November.

A strong showing by any GOP candidate on Super Tuesday ā€” when 437 delegates are up for grabs ā€” could push someone from the race.

If former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who regained his position as front-runner after wins in Arizona and MichiganĀ this week,Ā does well in the contests, it could mean the end of the game for one or more of his remaining opponents: former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas).

The states holding contests on Super Tuesday are: Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia.

Super Tuesday comes on the heels of another important contest on Saturday: the Washington State caucuses, where 43 delegates are in play. On Tuesday, Wyoming will also begin its caucuses, but that process will continue throughout the week and the results won’t be known until Saturday.

But it appears that Super Tuesday will not be a cakewalk for Romney, after he only eked out a three-point win over Santorum in his home state of Michigan.

Dan Pinello, who’s gay and a government professor at the City University of New York, said he thinks the outcome of the contests will be “muddled” and won’t leave a clear Republican front-runner in their aftermath.

“It’s going to be a mix of wins by various candidates,” Pinello said. “I don’t think the field is going to be any clearer after Tuesday than it is before, quite frankly. I anticipate that all four candidates will also continue regardless of what happens on Tuesday.”

Hastings Wyman, who’s also gay and editor of the Southern Political Report, said Santorum may continue to show strength in several southern states.

“I think he has a good shot in Oklahoma, possibly in Tennessee, possibly in Georgia,” Wyman said. “The only one I would give him a good shot in is probably Oklahoma.”

In Ohio, Santorum could show that his campaign continues to have life. According toĀ a poll published Tuesday by the University of Cincinnati, Santorum leads Romney by 11 percentage points among Republican primary voters.

Wyman said the race in Georgia is important for Gingrich because if he doesn’t win there, which is his home state, it will likely be the end of his campaign.

“It’s very hard to predict what he’ll do, but I think it’ll be very hard from him to stay in if he doesn’t carry Georgia,” Wyman said. “He’s working very hard down there. He’s touring the state, he’s speaking to these mega churches, he’s treating it like Romney was treating Michigan.”

Gingrich seems poised to capture the state. A poll published Monday by Survey USA found him leading there with 39 percent of support among Republican voters. Santorum follows at 24 percent, while Romney comes in at 23 percent.

The contest in Virginia will also be of special interest because it’s awarding a large number of delegates, 46, and because only two candidates will be on the ballot: Romney and Paul.

Wyman said Republicans unhappy with Romney may vote for Paul in an effort to prolong the Republican primary season and prevent Romney from claiming the nomination. Virginia has an open primary, which means Democrats can come to the polls.

“It would not surprise me if a lot of the people who vote for Santorum or Gingrich would get out the vote for Paul just to slow down Romney,” Wyman said.

David Lampo, a gay Republican activist from Alexandria, Va., said he’s voting for Paul in the primary not as a protest vote, but because of the candidate’s libertarian views.

“I’m a longtime libertarian, so of course he appeals to me,” Lampo said. “Not the greatest messenger, but he has reintroduced libertarianism to millions of Americans, particularly a whole new generation of young voters. And he even runs competitively with President Obama in many polls.”

As a U.S. House member, Paul was among the Republicans who voted for “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” repeal and against a U.S. constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage, but the candidate has also been a strong supporter of the Defense of Marriage Act.

Lampo said Paul has been “a bit uneven” on LGBT issues, but “shines” compared to the other Republican presidential candidates.

CUNY’s Pinello said Paul may have “a few good showings” in Super Tuesday, but expressed doubt the candidate would be able to prevail in any states next week.

“I don’t know that he’ll win any states, but he will have good enough showings to argue that his effort isn’t necessarily doomed, at least from his perspective,” Pinello said. “His supporters are so gung-ho that it doesn’t really make a difference that he hasn’t won any states outright.”

Even if Romney builds off his wins in Michigan and Arizona by sweeping the contests on Super Tuesday, whether Santorum or Gingrich will drop out immediately remains unclear.

Wyman said the Romney alternatives may see if they can win a brokered convention when Republicans gather in Tampa later this year to anoint their nominee.

In that case, delegates wouldn’t be able to settle on a nominee during the ballot round and would have to negotiate through political horse-trading to settle on a candidate.

“If they can all stay in and keep their delegates at least on the first ballot ā€” I think most states require that ā€” then they might possibly be able to keep Romney from winning on the first ballot and maybe create some opportunity for somebody else,” Wyman said.

Pinello said the prospects of a brokered convention in Tampa are diminished now that Romney has pulled off a win ā€” albeit a narrow one ā€” in his home state of Michigan this week, but such an outcome could still be possible.

“If the current polling data nationally show that Obama has a lead, although not large, but nonetheless a lead, over all four of the current Republican candidates,” Pinello said. “So the party leadership across the nation that may be wishing for a Jeb Bush or a Chris Christie or someone else be their champion and save the day, but I don’t think that’s likely at all.”

Whether the GOP candidates will draw on anti-gay rhetoric to win support from Republican voters prior to Super Tuesday also remains to be seen.

Wyman said “you might see some” campaigning directed against the LGBT community in the Super Tuesday states as the candidates jockey for support among conservative voters.

“They’ve all been pretty stalwart in their opposition to anything gay,” Wyman said. “Every now and then one of them will act a little bit liberal and say, ‘I don’t believe in discrimination,’ but they do. Ultimately, they side with the religious right on most gay issues.”

Pinello expressed doubt that Romney would draw on anti-gay attacks, saying the candidate would instead opt to focus on economic issues, but couldn’t say the same about Santorum.

“He had that confrontation before the New Hampshire with college students over same-sex marriage,” Pinello said. “A lot of commentators said that had been a mistake by him in terms of allowing the issue to drift away from economic issues, but he doesn’t seem concerned by that. He’s happy to be the stalwart on social issues.”

Pinello said if the candidates want to talk about social issues, the would be more inclined hot button topics other than LGBT rights, such as a abortion and the Obama administration’s rule providing contraception to women.

The candidates’ positions on LGBT issues are already well-known. Each of the Republican candidates who’ve won primaries ā€” Romney, Santorum and Gingrich ā€” has signed a pledge from the National Organization for Marriage vowing to back a Federal Marriage Amendment, defend the Defense of Marriage Act in court and establish a commission on “religious liberty” to investigate the harassment of same-sex marriage supporters.

Santorum has gone further by saying he’d restore “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” if elected president, and Gingrich has said he’d order an “extensive review” of going back to the policy.

As candidates campaign in Tennessee, they may want to weigh in on state pending legislation commonly known as the “Don’t Say Gay” bill, which would prohibit discussion about homosexuality in schools from kindergarten through eighth grade.

Chris Sanders, chair of the Nashville Committee for the Tennessee Equality Project, said polls are showing Santorum has strength in Tennessee and his views are in synch with what’s happening in the legislature.

“Given the fact that he has been so explicitly anti-equality, it’s just another index that we’ve got a lot of work to do in Tennessee,” Sanders said.

Sanders dismissed the idea that Santorum or other candidates would explicitly mention state legislative issues, such as the “Don’t Say Gay Bill,” but said “the anti-equality candidates will find very hospitable ground for themselves here.”

The Washington State caucuses on Saturday could also draw anti-gay sentiments from the candidates because Gov. Chris Gregoire earlier this month signed marriage equality into law, and anti-gay forces are at work to collect the 120,577 signatures needed by June 6 to put the law before voters in November.

Santorum made his opposition to the marriage law a cornerstone of his campaign in Washington State. On the same day the marriage law was signed, Santorum held a campaign rally in the state, saying Gregoire’s signature “isn’t the last word” on marriage as he called on supporters to bring the measure to the polls.

For his part, Gingrich took a softer approach to Washington ā€” as well as the expected legalization of same-sex marriage in Maryland ā€” by saying last week these states were going about it “the right way” by using the legislative process instead of the courts, even though he personally opposes same-sex marriage.

“I think at least they’re doing it the right way, which is going through voters, giving them a chance to vote and not having a handful of judges arbitrarily impose their will,ā€ Gingrich said.

The candidate’s statement contradicts his support for a Federal Marriage Amendment, which, if passed, would abrogate all laws allowing same-sex marriage, including those passed by state legislatures.

Romney has yet to address specifically the legalization of same-sex marriage in Washington, but Pinello doubted the candidate will talk about the issue ahead of Saturday.

“He is really trying to focus on economic issues, single-mindedly,” Pinello said. “I don’t think he would initiate any conversation. He can’t necessarily avoid a question that might come up if one were posed, but I’m sure it will be a short answer, and then he’d jump back to some economic issue.”

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Oklahoma

Medical examine releases final autopsy on Nex Benedict’s death

Okla. high school student died by suicide in February

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Nex Benedict (Family photo)

The Oklahoma Medical Examiner’s Office released the full report Wednesday on the results of its investigation into the death of Nex Benedict, a 16-year-old transgender teen whose death has become a hot button topic in ongoing national discourse over transphobic and homophobic bullying in public school settings.

Earlier this month the medical examiner’s office released the first page of the report stating that Benedictā€™s death was caused by an overdose of Benadryl and Prozac, and ruled the death a suicide.

Owasso Police Department Lt. Nick Boatman said in a statement to the media at the time of the release of the initial finding: ā€œFrom the beginning of this investigation, Owasso Police observed many indications that this death was the result of suicide. However, investigators did not wish to confirm that information without the final results being presented by the Oklahoma Medical Examiners Office.ā€

The Owasso Police Department released body cam footage from the interview conducted by the Owasso High School resource officer taken at the emergency room, investigating the attack on Benedict by three other female juveniles earlier that day in a school bathroom.

Tulsa County District Attorney Steve Kunzweiler released a statement last week that said no criminal charges will be filed in the death of the 16-year-old Owasso High School trans student.

In part the district attorney said because the finding by the Oklahoma State Medical Examiner precluded the possibility that the death was caused directly from the physical altercation at the school the day prior to the teen’s dying.

According to the district attorney, Benedict had written notes talking about suicide but did not reference the fight or incidents at school. Kunzweiler stated that the notes are personal to Benedictā€™s family and will not be released.

16-year-old trans teen Nex Benedict being recorded on Owasso Police Department body cam footage at the emergency room after he was attacked in a bathroom at Owasso High School speaking with the Owasso High School resource officer.

The report also detailed injuries sustained in the fight from the day before, including several small cuts and bruises on their face and body. Benedict also had a 4×3 inch bruise on his chest from resuscitation efforts. The medical examiner also found yellowing bruises on Benedict’s arms, legs and torso that were healing before the time of the fight. The medical examiner’s office also found evidence of self-inflicted wounds on the arm.

Several Oklahoma-based LGBTQ organizations responded to the release of the full autopsy report along with national LGBTQ advocacy groups GLAAD, the Human Rights Campaign and the Rainbow Youth Project.

ā€œAs our community continues to grieve and remember Nex, itā€™s clearer than ever that everyone from Oklahomaā€™s State Superintendent of Public Instruction Ryan Walters to Owasso High School staff members to the Owasso Police Department, Tulsa District Attorney, and unaccredited-since-2009 state medical examinerā€™s office failed to deliver justice for Nex Benedict and Nexā€™s loved ones,” said Nicole McAfree, executive director of Freedom Oklahoma.

“A harm doubled by the continued lack of respect for the tribal law enforcement who should be involved in a case that involves the death of an Indigenous person on reservation land. As we approach the end of the Oklahoma legislative session, lawmakers should take the opportunity to send a message of adamant opposition to anti-2SLGBTQ+ legislation and policies; and support for measures that enable more empathy, kindness and compassion, not less. Nex should be alive, and the very least we can do in Nexā€™s memory is demonstrate our commitment to building a better world that makes it impossible for this heartbreaking tragedy to happen again,ā€ McAfree added.

Oklahoma Pride Alliance President Kylan L. Durant said; ā€œTodayā€™s news is the latest disappointing development in Nex Benedictā€™s tragic story. The best way to honor Nexā€™s memory now is by taking tangible steps to secure meaningful policies and platforms that make life better for all LGBTQ and 2STGNC+ youth. All Oklahomans deserve to live in a world that treats us with full dignity and respect, and where we can access spaces that allow us to live as our honest, authentic selves. We will never stop advocating for equality and justice in honor of Nex and too many others who left us too soon.ā€

The Rainbow Youth Project reported an uptick in crisis calls from Oklahoma since Benedictā€™s death:

  • 1,097 calls from Oklahoma in February.
  • 824 calls from Oklahoma in March so far.
  • Note that the average for the state is 357 per month.
  • Oklahoma youth reaching out to Rainbow Youth Project reported experiencing anti-LGBTQ bullying and specifically called out Walters:
    • 82 percent reported bullying.
    • 62 percent cited anti-LGBTQ rhetoric from Walters.

More than 350 organizations signed a letter one month agoĀ calling for the Walters’ removal following his long history of leadership failures and anti-LGBTQ rhetoric.

ā€œSince Nexā€™s death, the crisis lines at the Rainbow Youth Project continue to increase in calls and outreach from young people who feel discouraged and hopeless. Itā€™s incumbent upon all of us to secure safety and well-being for young people, especially those who are most at risk of being bullied and singled out,” said Christopher Sederburg, leader of the Rainbow Youth Project’s Transgender Action Committee. “Itā€™s hard enough to be a young person in the world today without worrying about doing something as simple as attending school safely. Nexā€™s death is a tremendous loss and we must do everything in our power to prevent similar tragedies from taking place in the future. Oklahoma State Superintendent Ryan Walters and the Oklahoma Department of Education must enact change and do right by all students.ā€

GLAAD President Sarah Kate Ellis in a statement released after the report was made public said:

“This report cannot be seen as a conclusion of the investigation into the death of a teenager who should still be here today. Oklahoma’s supposed leaders must still provide answers to the public about the state-sponsored bullying by legislation, the inadequate response to violence in a school bathroom, and all the failures to keep Nex safe that continue to endanger LGBTQ and 2STGNC+ people in Oklahoma. GLAAD continues to call for an independent investigation to resolve the systemic failures that led to Nexā€™s death. Our hearts remain with Nexā€™s family, with Oklahomaā€™s incredible 2STGNC+ and equality advocates and all LGBTQ youth who deserve to grow up in peace and safety.ā€

Kelley Robinson, president of the Human Rights Campaign, released the following statement: 

ā€œThe full report does little to fill in the gaps in information about that day or the more than a year of bullying and harassment that led up to it. It does not answer the questions of so many in Oklahoma and across the country. We continue to support the calls from Nexā€™s family for an independent investigation.

Young people in Oklahoma and across the country deserve to be safe and respected in school. This includes young people who may dress differently, speak differently, or identify differently from you. Whatā€™s clear from Nexā€™s death, and from what weā€™ve heard from so many students and parents in Owasso and across the state, is that this is not the case. Instead, we have seen the very adults who should be working to protect Oklahomaā€™s kids actively foster the hostile environment that makes students unsafe.

The release of todayā€™s report does not change the fact that LGTBQ+ students in Oklahoma are not safe at school. And it does not change our continued calls for justice and accountability.  We reiterate our call for a full and complete investigation into the district, state Supt. Ryan Walters, the Oklahoma State Department of Education and into their response after Nex was attacked.ā€

On March 1, the U.S. Department of Education informed Robinson that the department will open an investigation in response to HRCā€™s letter regarding Owasso Public Schools and its failure to respond appropriately to sex-based harassment that may have contributed to the tragic death of Benedict.

This investigation was triggered by a formal complaint made last week by Robinson, who wrote to U.S. Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona and asked his department to use the enforcement mechanisms at its disposal to prevent similar tragedies from taking place in the future and to help hold accountable those responsible for Benedictā€™s tragic death.

Rainbow Youth Project USA Executive Director Lance Preston echoed his fellow non-profit CEOs at GLAAD and HRC, telling the Washington Blade:

“In a unified effort with Human Rights Campaign and GLAAD, Rainbow Youth Project USA is calling for an independent autopsy to ensure a thorough investigation into the circumstances surrounding the youth’s death. 

Rainbow Youth Project USA, demands that educational institutions in Oklahoma and across the country take immediate action to address the pervasive issue of bullying and harassment faced by LGBTQ+ students. 

Statistics reveal that 58 percent of LGBTQ+ youth in Oklahoma feel unsafe at school, painting a grim picture of the challenges these individuals face on a daily basis. “Schools must be safe and inclusive environments for all students, regardless of their sexual orientation or gender identity. It is unacceptable that a significant number of LGBTQ+ students are experiencing bullying and harassment.”

Rainbow Youth Project USA, based on recent data, received 1,097 crisis calls from Oklahoma in February alone. Nearly 86 percent of these callers reported instances of being bullied within the state’s schools, highlighting the urgent need for improved support and protection for LGBTQ youth. 

In a conversation with the Blade on Wednesday, investigative journalist T.J. Payne reflected on the report:

“I canā€™t help but feel a sickness around all of it. As a trans person, reading a trans childā€™s autopsy is really fucked. Referring to their various insides as normal, intact, not usual. If only we described trans people the same way externally. Just like everybody else in the world trying to survive.”

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Federal Government

National Security Council meets with Ugandan LGBTQ activist

Frank Mugisha met with the NSC on Monday

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Frank Mugisha, Gay News, Washington Blade
Sexual Minorities Uganda Executive Director Frank Mugisha (Washington Blade photo by Michael K. Lavers)

The U.S. National Security Council met with Ugandan LGBTQ rights activist Frank Mugisha on Monday, according to a spokesperson who reaffirmed America’s opposition to civil rights abuses against LGBTQ people in the East African country.

Last year, Uganda passed the Anti-Homosexuality Act, a law that criminalizes, with prison sentences, identifying as gay or lesbian and imposes the death penalty for “aggravated homosexuality.”

The Biden-Harris administration has repeatedly denounced the legislation and called for its repeal.

“There have been increased reports of evictions, vigilante attacks, and police harassment, abuse, and detainment of individuals who are or are perceived to be LGBTQI+, including reports of the Ugandan police subjecting individuals to forced anal examinations ā€“ an abusive, degrading practice that serves no investigative or public health purpose,” the White House wrote in a December 2023 fact sheet.

In a post on X about the meeting with Mugisha, Adrienne Watson, special assistant to the president and National Security Council senior director for press and spokesperson, wrote that the “United States continues to have zero tolerance for any form of discrimination or harmful activities.”

Mugisha, who is gay, is one of the most prominent LGBTQ advocates in Uganda, winning the Robert F. Kennedy Human Rights Award and Thorolf Rafto Memorial Prize for his work in 2011. He was nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize in 2014.

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District of Columbia

D.C. events to commemorate International Transgender Day of Visibility

Monica Beverly-Hillz to attend Blossom Gala at Hook Hall

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(Washington Blade file photo by Michael K. Lavers)

Trans USA National Pageantry and the National Center for Transgender Equality will hold a series of events in D.C. on Sunday in commemoration of the International Transgender Day of Visibility.

The TRANSform the Vote rally will take place on the National Mall.

Organized by the Queer Equity Institute and NCTE, the event aims to celebrate trans liberation, combat violence and promote civic engagement. Elected officials, activists and artists are expected to participate. 

Queer Equity Institute Executive Director Leigh Finke and NCTE Executive Director Rodrigo Heng-Lehtinen discussed the rally and how it will empower the trans community and promote advocacy.

ā€œFrom restricting access to medically necessary healthcare to denying trans students the opportunity to participate in sports, we have seen nationwide efforts to exclude trans people from society,ā€ said Heng-Lehtinen. ā€œTRANSform the Vote presents a historical moment for us to empower our community ā€” casting our votes and participating in democracy is just one of many ways our community can advocate for the issues that matter to us.ā€

Finke, Minnesotaā€™s first openly trans lawmaker who wrote the stateā€™s groundbreaking trans refuge bill, echoed Heng-Lehtinen.

“Over the past few years, weā€™ve watched again and again as ‘jokes’ became hate speech, hate speech became bills, bills became laws; and all the jokes, hate speech and laws created an environment where transgender people are assaulted, beaten and murdered,” said Finke. “Some of the most important tools we have to fight back against these attacks is to change the culture through voting, running for office and creating art and music that shift society. This rally is meant to highlight and encourage folks to use those tools in their communities.”

Confirmed speakers and participants aside from Finke and Heng-Lehtinen include:

  • Minnesota state Rep. Alicia ā€œLiishā€ Kozlowski, who is one of the countryā€™s foremost activists for Indigenous trans and two-spirit people.
  • Minneapolis City Council President Andrea Jenkins.
  • Angelica Ross, a Buddhist artist and human rights activist.
  • Visual artist Cassils

The first annual Blossom Gala will take place at Hook Hall (3400 Georgia Ave., N.W.) and will feature keynote speakers, a Q&A panel discussion featuring national leaders in the trans rights movement and drag performances. Cherry Bomb, which will cap off the event, is an all-trans drag showcase.

Mr. Trans USA 2020 Eddie Broadway; Miss Trans USA 2020 Bianca Nicole and Candi Stratton, a world-renowned Cher illusionist, are among those who are expected to perform. Other participants will include Miss Trans USA 2023 Anya Marino, Mr. Trans USA 2023 Trey C. Michaels and NCTE National Organizer Sybastian Smith.  

Monica Beverly-Hillz from “RuPaul’s Drag Race” will also participate.

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