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Favorable signs for Obama on Election Day

Gay former campaign strategist predicts president wins 347-191

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Barack Obama, Election 2012, gay news, Washington Blade
Barack Obama, Election 2012, gay news, Washington Blade

National polls show the race is close, but are generally favorable to President Obama on Election Day. (Washington Blade file photo by Michael Key)

A gay Democratic political strategist who helped President Obama win a blowout victory in 2008 is predicting another big win for him in 2012 as the national polls published just before Election Day show a tight race, but are generally favorable to Obama.

Steve Hildebrand, the deputy national campaign director of Barack Obama’s 2008 presidential campaign, said in response to an email inquiry from the Washington Blade that he’s expecting a wide margin of victory for Obama in the Electoral College.

“Obama wins 347-191,” Hildebrand wrote. “After Romney chose Paul Ryan as his running mate and his 47 percent comments, he was never able to convince a majority of voters that he would be on their side. He will lose what could have been a winnable race.”

That margin of victory would mean Obama would not only win all the swing states in the 2012 election — Ohio, Colorado, Florida, Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada and New Hampshire — but also pick up North Carolina, which the Obama campaign had largely abandoned despite holding the Democratic National Convention in the state.

After his participation in the 2008 presidential campaign, Hildebrand returned to his home state of South Dakota to work as a political strategist and wasn’t directly involved in Obama’s 2012 presidential campaign.

Final polls published on Monday indicated the race will be close, but generally showed Obama has a small lead over Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney. An ABC News/Washington Post poll gives Obama a lead by 50-47 and a Reuters/Ipsos poll says Obama is leading 48-46. But an American Research Group poll had the race a dead heat at 49-49 and a Rasmussen Reports poll gave Romney a one point lead over Obama by a margin of 49-48.

Many Obama supporters are taking solace in the New York Times blogger and statistician Nate Silver’s assessment on Tuesday that Obama has a 91.6 percent chance of victory based on these latest polls. In the 2008 election, Silver correctly predicted the winner in 49 out of 50 states.

In several swing states, polls are showing Obama has a small lead, but likely enough to give him a victory in the Electoral College. The last Reuters/Ipsos state polls have Obama up in Virginia by 48-46, in Ohio by 50-46 and Colorado by 48-47. In Florida, the Reuters/Ipsos polls give Romney a one point lead over Obama.

Both candidates made their final push to convince voters to come to their side. Romney spent the day campaigning in Virginia, where he made two campaign stops — one in Lynchburg and another in Fairfax — and he warned supporters that Obama’s re-election would mean four years of the same policies. He’s also slated to campaign in Ohio on Election Day.

“Throughout the campaign, the president has brought almost every argument he can think of to the front,” Romney said. “He’s tried to convince you that these last four years have been a success. And so his plan for the next four years is to take all the ideas from the first term — the stimulus, the borrowing, Obamacare, all the rest — and do them over again. He calls that ‘Forward.’ I call it ‘Forewarned.’ The same course we’ve been on won’t lead to a better destination.”

Obama and first lady Michelle Obama made their final campaign appearance at a rally in Des Moines, Iowa, where he said the country has seen “real progress” under his administration. That appearance brings Obama full circle because Iowa is the state credited with launching his presidential campaign after he won the caucuses there in the 2008 Democratic primary.

“And, Iowa, after all the months of campaigning, after all the rallies, after the millions of dollars of ads, it all comes down to you,” Obama said. “It’s out of my hands now. It’s in yours. All of it depends on what you do when you step into that voting booth tomorrow. It’s just a remarkable thing, the way our democracy works.”

Locally, long lines were reported in the morning at polling places. According to a report from NBC 4, voters in Virginia lined up even before polls opened to cast their votes — particularly at Washington Mill Elementary School in Alexandria, Va., where U.S. Senate candidate George Allen is expected to vote. Polls are open until 8 p.m. in D.C. and Maryland, and 7 p.m. in Virginia.

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Federal Government

HHS reverses Trump-era anti-LGBTQ rule

Section 1557 of the Affordable Care Act now protects LGBTQ people

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U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra (Public domain photo)

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Office for Civil Rights has issued a final rule on Friday under Section 1557 of the Affordable Care Act advancing protections against discrimination in health care prohibiting discrimination on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, or sex (including pregnancy, sexual orientation, gender identity, and sex characteristics), in covered health programs or activities. 

The updated rule does not force medical professionals to provide certain types of health care, but rather ensures nondiscrimination protections so that providers cannot turn away patients based on individual characteristics such as being lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, intersex, or pregnant.

“This rule ensures that people nationwide can access health care free from discrimination,” said HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra. “Standing with communities in need is critical, particularly given increased attacks on women, trans youth, and health care providers. Health care should be a right not dependent on looks, location, love, language, or the type of care someone needs.”

The new rule restores and clarifies important regulatory protections for LGBTQ people and other vulnerable populations under Section 1557, also known as the health care nondiscrimination law, that were previously rescinded by the Trump administration.

“Healthcare is a fundamental human right. The rule released today restores critical regulatory nondiscrimination protections for those who need them most and ensures a legally proper reading of the Affordable Care Act’s healthcare nondiscrimination law,” said Omar Gonzalez-Pagan, counsel and health care strategist for Lambda Legal.

“The Biden administration today reversed the harmful, discriminatory, and unlawful effort by the previous administration to eliminate critical regulatory protections for LGBTQ+ people and other vulnerable populations, such as people with limited English proficiency, by carving them out from the rule and limiting the scope of entities to which the rule applied,” Gonzalez-Pagan added. “The rule released today has reinstated many of these important protections, as well as clarifying the broad, intended scope of the rule to cover all health programs and activities and health insurers receiving federal funds. While we evaluate the new rule in detail, it is important to highlight that this rule will help members of the LGBTQ+ community — especially transgender people, non-English speakers, immigrants, people of color, and people living with disabilities — to access the care they need and deserve, saving lives and making sure healthcare professionals serve patients with essential care no matter who they are.”

In addition to rescinding critical regulatory protections for LGBTQ people, the Trump administration’s rule also limited the remedies available to people who face health disparities, limited access to health care for people with Limited English Proficiency, and dramatically reduced the number of healthcare entities and health plans subject to the rule.

Lambda Legal, along with a broad coalition of LGBTQ advocacy groups, filed a lawsuit challenging the Trump administration rule, Whitman-Walker Clinic v. HHS, and secured a preliminary injunction preventing key aspects of the Trump rule from taking effect.

These included the elimination of regulatory protections for LGBTQ people and the unlawful expansion of religious exemptions, which the new rule corrects. The preliminary injunction in Whitman-Walker Clinic v. HHS remains in place. Any next steps in the case will be determined at a later time, after a fulsome review of the new rule.

GLAAD President Sarah Kate Ellis released the following statement in response to the news:

“The Biden administration’s updates to rules regarding Section 1557 of the ACA will ensure that no one who is LGBTQI or pregnant can face discrimination in accessing essential health care. This reversal of Trump-era discriminatory rules that sought to single out Americans based on who they are and make it difficult or impossible for them to access necessary medical care will have a direct, positive impact on the day to day lives of millions of people. Today’s move marks the 334th action from the Biden-Harris White House in support of LGBTQ people. Health care is a human right that should be accessible to all Americans equally without unfair and discriminatory restrictions. LGBTQ Americans are grateful for this step forward to combat discrimination in health care so no one is barred from lifesaving treatment.”

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The White House

Four states to ignore new Title IX rules protecting transgender students

Biden administration last Friday released final regulations

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March for Queer and Trans Youth Autonomy in D.C. in 2023. (Washington Blade photo by Michael Key)

BY ERIN REED | Last Friday, the Biden administration released its final Title IX rules, which include protections for LGBTQ students by clarifying that Title IX forbids discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity. 

The rule change could have a significant impact as it would supersede bathroom bans and other discriminatory policies that have become increasingly common in Republican states within the U.S. 

As of Thursday morning, however, officials in at least four states — Oklahoma, Louisiana, Florida, and South Carolina — have directed schools to ignore the regulations, potentially setting up a federal showdown that may ultimately end up in a protracted court battle in the lead-up to the 2024 elections.

Louisiana State Superintendent of Education Cade Brumley was the first to respond, decrying the fact that the new Title IX regulations could block teachers and other students from exercising what has been dubbed by some a “right to bully” transgender students by using their old names and pronouns intentionally. 

Asserting that Title IX law does not protect trans and queer students, Brumley states that schools “should not alter policies or procedures at this time.” Critically, several courts have ruled that trans and queer students are protected by Title IX, including the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in a recent case in West Virginia.

In South Carolina, Schools Supt. Ellen Weaver wrote in a letter that providing protections for trans and LGBTQ students under Title IX “would rescind 50 years of progress and equality of opportunity by putting girls and women at a disadvantage in the educational arena,” apparently leaving trans kids out of her definition of those who deserve progress and equality of opportunity. 

She then directed schools to ignore the new directive while waiting for court challenges. While South Carolina does not have a bathroom ban or statewide “Don’t Say Gay or Trans” law, such bills continue to be proposed in the state.

Responding to the South Carolina letter, Chase Glenn of Alliance For Full Acceptance stated, “While Supt. Weaver may not personally support the rights of LGBTQ+ students, she has the responsibility as the top school leader in our state to ensure that all students have equal rights and protections, and a safe place to learn and be themselves. The flagrant disregard shown for the Title IX rule tells me that our superintendent unfortunately does not have the best interests of all students in mind.”

Florida Education Commissioner Manny Diaz also joined in instructing schools not to implement Title IX regulations. In a letter issued to area schools, Diaz stated that the new Title IX regulations were tantamount to “gaslighting the country into believing that biological sex no longer has any meaning.” 

Governor Ron DeSantis approved of the letter and stated that Florida “will not comply.” Florida has notably been the site of some of the most viciously anti-queer and anti-trans legislation in recent history, including a “Don’t Say Gay or Trans” law that was used to force a trans female teacher to go by “Mr.”

State Education Supt. Ryan Walters of Oklahoma was the latest to echo similar sentiments. Walters has recently appointed the right-wing media figure Chaya Raichik of Libs of TikTok to an advisory role “to improve school safety,” and notably, Raichik has posed proudly with papers accusing her of instigating bomb threats with her incendiary posts about LGBTQ people in classrooms.

The Title IX policies have been universally applauded by large LGBTQ rights organizations in the U.S. Lambda Legal, a key figure in fighting anti-LGBTQ legislation nationwide, said that the regulations “clearly cover LGBTQ+ students, as well as survivors and pregnant and parenting students across race and gender identity.” The Human Rights Campaign also praised the rule, stating, “rule will be life-changing for so many LGBTQ+ youth and help ensure LGBTQ+ students can receive the same educational experience as their peers: Going to dances, safely using the restroom, and writing stories that tell the truth about their own lives.”

The rule is slated to go into effect Aug. 1, pending any legal challenges.

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Erin Reed is a transgender woman (she/her pronouns) and researcher who tracks anti-LGBTQ+ legislation around the world and helps people become better advocates for their queer family, friends, colleagues, and community. Reed also is a social media consultant and public speaker.

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The preceding article was first published at Erin In The Morning and is republished with permission.

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Pennsylvania

Malcolm Kenyatta could become the first LGBTQ statewide elected official in Pa.

State lawmaker a prominent Biden-Harris 2024 reelection campaign surrogate

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President Joe Biden, Malcolm Kenyatta, and Vice President Kamala Harris (Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz)

Following his win in the Democratic primary contest on Wednesday, Pennsylvania state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta, who is running for auditor general, is positioned to potentially become the first openly LGBTQ elected official serving the commonwealth.

In a statement celebrating his victory, LGBTQ+ Victory Fund President Annise Parker said, “Pennsylvanians trust Malcolm Kenyatta to be their watchdog as auditor general because that’s exactly what he’s been as a legislator.”

“LGBTQ+ Victory Fund is all in for Malcolm, because we know he has the experience to win this race and carry on his fight for students, seniors and workers as Pennsylvania’s auditor general,” she said.

Parker added, “LGBTQ+ Americans are severely underrepresented in public office and the numbers are even worse for Black LGBTQ+ representation. I look forward to doing everything I can to mobilize LGBTQ+ Pennsylvanians and our allies to get out and vote for Malcolm this November so we can make history.” 

In April 2023, Kenyatta was appointed by the White House to serve as director of the Presidential Advisory Commission on Advancing Educational Equity, Excellence and Economic Opportunity for Black Americans.

He has been an active surrogate in the Biden-Harris 2024 reelection campaign.

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