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First Republican primary debate to take place on Aug. 23

It remains unclear whether Donald Trump will participate

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(Washington Blade photos on top row by Michael Key; screen captures on bottom row via YouTube)

The Republican National Committee will host the party’s first 2024 presidential primary debates next Wednesday, Aug. 23, in Milwaukee.

Five declared candidates have met the threshold requirements to participate: (One) 40,000 unique donors with at least 200 unique donors per state, (two) polling one percent or higher in three national polls recognized by the RNC, or in two national polls and in two polls from early voting states and (three) agreeing to support the eventual Republican nominee.

These GOP hopefuls are Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who formerly served in the U.S. House of Representatives, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who formerly served as U.S. ambassador to the U.N. during the Trump administration, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, a billionaire former tech mogul, and U.S. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina.

Three more — former President and current GOP frontrunner Donald Trump, former Vice President Mike Pence, who formerly served in the U.S. House and as governor of Indiana, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie — have not yet signed loyalty pledges but otherwise will qualify.

(Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, businessman Perry Johnson, conservative talk radio host Larry Elder and former congressman Will Hurd are also in the running.)

It’s Trump’s race to lose

Just before he was handed a 13-count felony indictment on Monday, polling showed the twice impeached former president had grown his lead over DeSantis from six points in January 2023 to a whopping 38 points, while Ramaswamy trailed behind the Florida governor by just seven points and a one or two-point difference distinguished the rest of the field.

In 2015, the last time he faced a primary contest against a crowded pool of Republican hopefuls, Trump by August was leading the pack, though by a slimmer margin of 11 points. In a distant second place was Jeb Bush, who was governor of Florida from 1999-2007 and ultimately suspended his campaign after a poor showing in the South Carolina primary.

However, and despite the many scandals that roiled his insurgent campaign eight years ago, Trump had run on a populist economic platform with a relatively cohesive message stressing his business bona fides and outside-the-Beltway career as a real estate mogul.

The picture looks different now.

Should he secure the Republican nomination, Trump would square off against President Joe Biden, who already beat him in 2020.

Efforts by Trump to stay in power despite that decisive loss culminated in the Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis’ issuance on Monday of 13 felony indictments against him for election fraud and violations of the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act.

“Trump and the other defendants charged in this indictment refused to accept that Trump lost, and they knowingly and willfully joined a conspiracy to unlawfully change the outcome of the election in favor of Trump,” the indictment said.

The former president will now face a total of 91 charges in four separate cases that will soon be adjudicated in courtrooms from Fulton County, Ga., to New York, with the former carrying a mandatory minimum 5-year sentence — and the specter of live television coverage whose impact on the 2024 race will be difficult to forecast.

What to watch for next week

Most of Trump’s 2024 rivals reacted by coming to his defense following Monday’s news of the fourth set of indictments. Depending on whether he opts to participate in the Milwaukee debate, the other candidates may or may not take the opportunity to differentiate themselves from the former president and make the case for why they — and not he — should be nominated to take on Biden.

For instance, Christie told Fox News he is “uncomfortable” by the indictment, calling it “unnecessary,” but hedged that “we can’t normalize this conduct” by Trump and promised to call him out from the debate stage.

With such a solid lead, Trump may well skip the event despite having participated in all but one of the 12 presidential debates held between August 2015 and March 2016. Of the 17 major declared candidates, only U.S. Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and former Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) participated in all 12.  

The U.S. Supreme Court established the nationwide constitutional right to same-sex marriage with Obergefell v. Hodges on June 26, 2015, prompting each of the GOP presidential primary candidates to go on the record with their respective positions.

A couple months later, during the Aug. 5 debate hosted by Fox News and Facebook in Cleveland, Kasich disclosed that he had recently attended a friend’s same-sex wedding, adding that “God gives me unconditional love” and therefore “I’m going to give it to my family and my friends and the people around me.”

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R), by contrast — who had warned Obergefell would usher in the “criminalization of Christianity” — inveighed from the debate stage against policies allowing gay and transgender service members to serve openly in the military.

Now, of course, transphobia is ascendent on the right.

Hundreds of anti-LGBTQ bills, most targeting the transgender community, have been introduced in conservative state legislatures this year, prompting the Human Rights Campaign to declare a state of emergency for LGBTQ people in the U.S.

Experts say it’s all about keeping evangelicals voting. Whether and how the Republican Party’s embrace of anti-LGBTQ policies and rhetoric will be reflected on the debate stage next week remains to be seen.

2024 candidates on LGBTQ issues

The GLAAD Accountability Project details the records of each of the eight GOP hopefuls who are likely to appear on the debate stage next week. Here are some excerpts:

Trump:

In March 2023, GLAAD writes, the former president “vowed to crack down on ‘transgender insanity’ and pledged to ‘revoke every Biden policy promoting the disfigurement of our youth’ at the first rally of his 2024 presidential campaign. He said that he would ‘keep men out of women’s sports’ if re-elected president, after he last year misgendered transgender athlete Lia Thomas. He added: ‘I will immediately sign an executive order to cut federal funding for any school pushing critical race theory, transgender insanity and other racial, sexual or political content on our children.’”

Full profile here.

DeSantis:

During an interview with Fox News in July 2022, DeSantis “lied about gender affirming care,” GLAAD notes, telling host Laura Ingraham: “They will actually take a young boy and castrate the boy. They will take a young girl and do a mastectomy, or they will sterilize her because of the gender dysphoria. There is no evidence that this is something that’s effective medical care.”

Full profile here.

Ramaswamy:

In May 2023, Ramaswamy told Fox News Digital that “Target ‘spit in the face of conservatives’ in an anti-transgender attack on the retailer for selling swimwear designed to accommodate a variety of body types,” GLAAD writes.

Full profile here.

Pence:

Last month, GLAAD notes, the former vice president, “as a part of his 2024 presidential bid, said that as president, he would again prohibit transgender Americans from serving in the military, as was the policy when he was vice president under Donald Trump: ‘… having transgender personnel, I believe, erodes unit cohesion in a very unique way.’”

Full profile here.

Haley:

In June 2023, Haley “falsely claimed that transgender girls playing sports contribute to teenage suicide ideation,” GLAAD said, echoing previous comments in which the former South Carolina governor “said President Joe Biden’s support of transgender rights will destroy women’s sports, saying, ‘Across the sporting world, the game is being rigged against women and in favor of biological men.’”

Full profile here.

Christie:

The organization notes that as governor, Christie signed bills “instituting broad new protections for trans New Jersey residents: One directing schools to let students use bathrooms and locker rooms based on their gender identity or provide ‘reasonable alternative arrangements,’ and another prohibiting health insurers from discriminating against transgender residents.” At the same time, GLAAD highlighted that he “vetoed a bill that would have eased access to accurate birth certificates for transgender people.”

Full profile here.

Scott:

GLAAD highlighted a 2010 report in Newsweek that Scott “considers homosexuality a morally wrong choice, like adultery.”

Full profile here.

Burgum:

In May 2023, GLAAD notes, Burgum “signed a bill into law that allows public school teachers and state government employees to ignore the pronouns their transgender students and colleagues use.”

Full profile here.

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Politics

After Biden signs TikTok ban its CEO vows federal court battle

“Rest assured, we aren’t going anywhere,” CEO said

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TikTok mobile phone app. (Screenshot/YouTube)

President Joe Biden signed an appropriations bill into law on Wednesday that provides multi-billion dollar funding and military aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan after months of delay and Congressional infighting.

A separate bill Biden signed within the aid package contained a bipartisan provision that will ban the popular social media app TikTok from the United States if its Chinese parent company ByteDance does not sell off the American subsidiary.

Reacting, TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew said Wednesday that the Culver City, Calif.-based company would go to court to try to remain online in the U.S.

In a video posted on the company’s social media accounts, Chew denounced the potential ban: “Make no mistake, this is a ban, a ban of TikTok and a ban on you and your voice,” Chew said. “Rest assured, we aren’t going anywhere. We are confident and we will keep fighting for your rights in the courts. The facts and the constitution are on our side, and we expect to prevail,” he added.

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre adamantly denied during a press briefing on Wednesday that the bill constitutes a ban, reiterating the administration’s hope that TikTok will be purchased by a third-party buyer and referencing media reports about the many firms that are interested.

Chew has repeatedly testified in both the House and Senate regarding ByteDance’s ability to mine personal data of its 170 million plus American subscribers, maintaining that user data is secure and not shared with either ByteDance nor agencies of the Chinese government. The testimony failed to assuage lawmakers’ doubts.

In an email, the former chair of the House Intelligence Committee, U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), who doesn’t support a blanket ban of the app, told the Washington Blade:

“As the former chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, I have long worked to safeguard Americans’ freedoms and security both at home and abroad. The Chinese Communist Party’s ability to exploit private user data and to manipulate public opinion through TikTok present serious national security concerns. For that reason, I believe that divestiture presents the best option to preserve access to the platform, while ameliorating these risks. I do not support a ban on TikTok while there are other less restrictive means available, and this legislation will give the administration the leverage and authority to require divestiture.”

A spokesperson for U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) told the Blade: “Senator Padilla believes we can support speech and creativity while also protecting data privacy and security. TikTok’s relationship to the Chinese Communist Party poses significant data privacy concerns. He will continue working with the Biden-Harris administration and his colleagues in Congress to safeguard Americans’ data privacy and foster continued innovation.”

The law, which gives ByteDance 270 days to divest TikTok’s U.S. assets, expires with a January 19, 2025 deadline for a sale. The date is one day before Biden’s term is set to expire, although he could extend the deadline by three months if he determines ByteDance is making progress or the transaction faces uncertainty in a federal court.

Former President Donald Trump’s executive order in 2020, which sought to ban TikTok and Chinese-owned WeChat, a unit of Beijing-based Tencent, in the U.S., was blocked by federal courts.

TikTok has previously fought efforts to ban its widely popular app by the state of Montana last year, in a case that saw a federal judge in Helena block that state ban, citing free-speech grounds.

The South China Morning Post reported this week that the four-year battle over TikTok is a significant front in a war over the internet and technology between Washington and Beijing. Last week, Apple said China had ordered it to remove Meta Platforms’s WhatsApp and Threads from its App Store in China over Chinese national security concerns.

A spokesperson for the ACLU told the Blade in a statement that “banning or requiring divestiture of TikTok would set an alarming global precedent for excessive government control over social media platforms.”

LGBTQ TikToker users are alarmed, fearing that a ban will represent the disruption of networks of support and activism. However, queer social media influencers who operate on multiple platforms expressed some doubts as to long term impact.

Los Angeles Blade contributor Chris Stanley told the Blade:

“It might affect us slightly, because TikTok is so easy to go viral on. Which obviously means more brand deals, etc. However they also suppress and shadow ban LGBTQ creators frequently. But we will definitely be focusing our energy more on other platforms with this uncertainty going forward. Lucky for us, we aren’t one trick ponies and have multiple other platforms built.”

Brooklyn, N.Y.,-based gay social media creator and influencer Artem Bezrukavenko told the Blade:

“For smart creators it won’t because they have multiple platforms. For people who put all their livelihood yes. Like people who do livestreams,” he said adding: “Personally I’m happy it gets banned or American company will own it so they will be less homophobic to us.”

TikTok’s LGBTQ following has generally positive experiences although there have been widely reported instances of users, notably transgender users, seemingly targeted by the platform’s algorithms and having their accounts banned or repeatedly suspended.

Of greater concern is the staggering rise in anti-LGBTQ violence and threats on the platform prompting LGBTQ advocacy group GLAAD, in its annual Social Media Safety Index, to give TikTok a failing score on LGBTQ safety.

Additional reporting by Christopher Kane

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Smithsonian staff concerned about future of LGBTQ programming amid GOP scrutiny

Secretary Lonnie Bunch says ‘LGBTQ+ content is welcome’

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Lonnie G. Bunch III, secretary of the Smithsonian Institution, appears before a Dec. 2023 hearing of the U.S. Committee on House Administration (Screen capture: Forbes/YouTube)

Staff at the Smithsonian Institution are concerned about the future of LGBTQ programming as several events featuring a drag performer were cancelled or postponed following scrutiny by House Republicans, according to emails reviewed by the Washington Post.

In December, Secretary Lonnie G. Bunch III appeared before a hearing led by GOP members of the Committee on House Administration, who flagged concerns about the Smithsonian’s involvement in “the Left’s indoctrination of our children.”

Under questioning from U.S. Rep. Stephanie Bice (R-Okla.), Bunch said he was “surprised” to learn the Smithsonian had hosted six drag events over the past three years, telling the lawmakers “It’s not appropriate to expose children” to these performances.

Collaborations with drag artist Pattie Gonia in December, January, and March were subsequently postponed or cancelled, the Post reported on Saturday, adding that a Smithsonian spokesperson blamed “budgetary constraints and other resource issues” and the museums are still developing programming for Pride month in June.

“I, along with all senior leaders, take seriously the concerns expressed by staff and will continue to do so,” Bunch said in a statement to the paper. “As we have reiterated, LGBTQ+ content is welcome at the Smithsonian.”

The secretary sent an email on Friday expressing plans to meet with leaders of the Smithsonian Pride Alliance, one of the two groups that detailed their concerns to him following December’s hearing.

Bunch told the Pride Alliance in January that with his response to Bice’s question, his intention was to “immediately stress that the Smithsonian does not expose children to inappropriate content.”

“A hearing setting does not give you ample time to expand,” he said, adding that with more time he would have spoken “more broadly about the merits and goals of our programming and content development and how we equip parents to make choices about what content their children experience.”

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Survey finds support for Biden among LGBTQ adults persists despite misgivings

Data for Progress previewed the results exclusively with the Blade

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Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden (Washington Blade photo by Michael Key)

A new survey by Data for Progress found LGBTQ adults overwhelmingly favor President Joe Biden and Democrats over his 2024 rival former President Donald Trump and Republicans, but responses to other questions may signal potential headwinds for Biden’s reelection campaign.

The organization shared the findings of its poll, which included 873 respondents from across the country including an oversample of transgender adults, exclusively with the Washington Blade on Thursday.

Despite the clear margin of support for the president, with only 22 percent of respondents reporting that they have a very favorable or somewhat favorable opinion of Trump, answers were more mixed when it came to assessments of Biden’s performance over the past four years and his party’s record of protecting queer and trans Americans.

Forty-five percent of respondents said the Biden-Harris administration has performed better than they expected, while 47 percent said the administration’s record has been worse than they anticipated. A greater margin of trans adults in the survey — 52 vs. 37 percent — said their expectations were not met.

Seventy precent of all LGBTQ respondents and 81 percent of those who identify as trans said the Democratic Party should be doing more for queer and trans folks, while just 24 percent of all survey participants and 17 percent of trans participants agreed the party is already doing enough.

With respect to the issues respondents care about the most when deciding between the candidates on their ballots, LGBTQ issues were second only to the economy, eclipsing other considerations like abortion and threats to democracy.

These answers may reflect heightened fear and anxiety among LGBTQ adults as a consequence of the dramatic uptick over the past few years in rhetorical, legislative, and violent bias-motivated attacks against the community, especially targeting queer and trans folks.

The survey found that while LGBTQ adults are highly motivated to vote in November, there are signs of ennui. For example, enthusiasm was substantially lower among those aged 18 to 24 and 25 to 39 compared with adults 40 and older. And a plurality of younger LGBTQ respondents said they believe that neither of the country’s two major political parties care about them.

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