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The predictable predictability of the Oscars

Favoring middle-of-the-road prestige over edgier fare

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It’s hard to write a reaction piece about the Oscars when you recognize that the Oscars, by their very nature, are essentially a poll ā€“ or perhaps, more aptly, a popularity contest ā€“ which reflects an aggregate of personal opinions, and therefore have as much to do with internal Hollywood politics as with rewarding artistic excellence.

Iā€™m not saying that the movies and people being celebrated on the stage at the Dolby Theater in Hollywood Sunday night ā€“ all of them, winners and nominees alike ā€“ didnā€™t deserve to be there; on the contrary, 2023 was an outstanding year for cinema, and every one of the contenders could be considered worthy of taking the prize. If thatā€™s the case, however, how can any of these outcomes be determined without the influence of personal taste? Making movies is not like playing sports, where a win results from the highest number of points scored and goals blocked; there is no such handily objective criteria to rely on in picking an actor, a screenwriter, or an entire film to proclaim as the ā€œbestā€ in its respective category, and itā€™s inevitable that Academy voters will be influenced by personal bias when they make their choices on that final ballot.

While Sundayā€™s 96th annual Oscar ceremony, which offered the usual snubs and oversights and no real surprises, might have disappointed me or even occasionally sparked a glimmer of outrage, I cannot fairly say that any of the final results were ā€œmistakes.ā€ And though it may be oversimplifying things to say that being offended by the Academyā€™s final choices is akin to being angry that someone elseā€™s favorite flavor of ice cream is chocolate when yours is salted caramel praline, itā€™s still enough to convince me that my ā€œreactionā€ piece to the Academy Awards can really only ever be an ā€œopinionā€ piece,

With that in mind, here we go.

The presentation itself was the usual blend of witty repartee (mostly provided with success by veteran Oscar host Jimmy Kimmel, though attempts at it from the various presenters ran the gamut from delightful to disastrous), musical performances (Billie Eilish and brother Finneas Oā€™Connellā€™s rendition of ā€œWhat Was I Made For?ā€, which went on to win the eveningā€™s only award for ā€œBarbieā€, was a particular highlight, alongside the more lavish and deliciously amusing dance production number headed by Supporting Actor nominee Ryan Gosling for ā€œIā€™m Just Kenā€ from the same film), uplifting moments (a regal Rita Morenoā€™s benedictory introduction of ā€œBarbieā€ Supporting Actress nominee America Ferrera brought tears to my eyes, and I suspect I wasnā€™t alone), and show-stopping surprises (John Cenaā€™s teasingly faux nudity presenting the Best Costume Design award was a memorable stunt, to put it mildly, as was the combination of Arnold Schwarzenegger and Danny DeVito to do the honors in the Visual Effects and Film Editing categories) ā€“ yet it also had more than its fair share of embarrassing gaffes, such as upstaging the ā€œIn Memoriamā€ segment with an overblown production number accompanied by father-and-son operatic crooners Andrea and Matteo Bocelliā€™s duet of ā€œCon tu partirĆ²ā€, a move that has fueled perhaps more post-Oscars outrage than anything else from this yearā€™s ceremony.

As for the politics, there were the expected barbs making fun of easy conservative targets, but most of the speeches avoided invoking too much progressive fury. The one overtly political moment came with the win of UK director Jonathan Glazerā€™s ā€œThe Zone of Interestā€ for Best International Feature, when he read, in prayerlike monotone, a pre-prepared statement warning against the dehumanizing hate depicted in his slice-of-Nazi-life historical drama and calling for empathy for the targets of such hate on both sides of the current crisis in Gaza. It was met with backlash, of course, especially after a partial quote in Variety omitted key elements of the speech and led many to believe the Jewish filmmaker was refuting his own religion.

As for the winners of the awards themselves (you can find the full list on the Oscar website) the eveningā€™s choices fell more or less in line with my predictions ā€“ though not necessarily my preferences. 

The domination of ā€œOppenheimerā€ in most of the major categories in which it competed was, for anyone following the pre-ceremony buzz, a foregone conclusion. Few doubted that Cillian Murphy would handily claim the Best Actor prize ā€“ thwarting nominee Colman Domingo (ā€œRustinā€) from becoming the first queer actor to win for playing a queer character in the process ā€“ or that Christopher Nolan would take the Best Director category, and from there the win for Best Picture felt as inevitable as anything can be at the Oscars.

Equally inevitable was the eveningā€™s most easily predicted ā€œOppenheimerā€ win, as veteran Hollywood player Robert Downey, Jr. ebulliently swaggered onstage amid the enthusiastic familial cheers of his peers to claim the Best Supporting Actor prize; his acceptance speech, in which he self-deprecatingly recalled the legal and professional obstacles arising from the substance abuse that nearly derailed his early career, became a testament to overcoming personal setbacks to achieve an even higher success, something that resonated in the words of several other of the eveningā€™s winners.

In the categories where ā€œOppenheimerā€ didnā€™t win, the odds were already in favor of the eventual victors, such as first-time filmmaker Cord Jefferson, whose ā€œAmerican Fictionā€ earned him the Best Adapted Screenplay Award over fellow front runners like ā€œBarbieā€ and ā€œPoor Things,ā€ and Daā€™Vine Joy Randolph, whose winning Supporting Actress turn in ā€œThe Holdoversā€ had been a juggernaut throughout the award season.

Many Oscar fans, though most accepted the predestination of ā€œOppenheimerā€ as the yearā€™s big winner, might rather have seen a different candidate come out on top (my own choice, for what itā€™s worth, would have been ā€œBarbie,ā€ with ā€œPoor Thingsā€ and ā€œZone of Interestā€ coming up close behind); but even if Nolanā€™s weighty and technically dazzling biopic was unquestionably a fine film, exploring a deeply disturbing slice of not-too-distant history that still casts a long existential shadow over our world today, itā€™s impossible for me not to see in its multiple wins an all-too-familiar pattern of ā€œsafeā€ choices.

While ā€œOppenheimerā€ might pique ethical discussions over its title characterā€™s choice to build the atomic bomb, few would find controversy in the idea that the destruction unleashed on the world by that choice is a reason for concern. Its most viable competitors, ā€œBarbieā€ and ā€œPoor Thingsā€ ā€“ both of which touched on many of the same existential themes, albeit from a markedly different direction and in a more absurdist style ā€“ each stirred divisive opinions around (among other things) a perceived feminist agenda; other highly-acclaimed titles in the running, like the non-English language entries ā€œZoneā€, ā€œPast Livesā€, and ā€œAnatomy of a Fallā€, fell outside the comfortable domestic audience mainstream where Oscarā€™s favorite picks are usually a little too deeply-rooted to allow much opportunity for a dark horse upset. While not many expected Bradley Cooperā€™s ambitious Bernstein biopic ā€œMaestroā€ to take home any awards, it was considerably more noteworthy that Martin Scorseseā€™s ā€œKillers of the Flower Moon,ā€ nominated for 10 Awards and widely lauded as one of the yearā€™s most essential films, failed to score a single one of them ā€“ though I canā€™t help also noting that it deals with one of most shameful threads in our American past, inevitably making it a controversial movie for an era marked by deeply divided ideologies around that subject.

Itā€™s perhaps for that reason that ā€œFlower Moonā€ was not considered a front runner in most of its categories, but there was one in which it was seen as a heavy favorite. With Lily Gladstone poised to become the first Indigenous performer to win the Best Actress trophy, the odds leading up to Sundayā€™s presentation seemed to position them as the front runner; in the end, however, it was Emma Stoneā€™s tour-de-force in ā€œPoor Thingsā€ ā€“ in which she appeared in virtually every scene, in contrast to Gladstoneā€™s relatively limited screen ā€“ that took it instead. Though it wasnā€™t quite a surprise, given the number of wins Stone has garnered already for the film, which also took home the prizes for Best Makeup and Hairstyling and Best Production Design, it nevertheless felt ā€“ to me, at least ā€“ like another example of Oscarā€™s predictable reluctance to court controversy with its choices.

Ironically, but not surprisingly, this conservative approach often just ends up causing a controversy of its own, and this case is no exception. Though I had championed Stoneā€™s brilliant performance as the obvious winner, when her name was announced I found myself feeling disappointment over Goldstoneā€™s loss, even as I was thrilled for Stoneā€™s well-earned victory. After all, in a contest where the outcome is entirely subjective, Academy voters could have chosen to amplify the excellence of someone from within a marginalized community. Stone, who seemed as surprised at her win as anyone else, did remarkable work, but so did Gladstone; though it truly is ā€œan honor just to be nominated,ā€ it was an opportunity for Oscar to take a step toward correcting a long-ignored injustice at a time when doing so could make a demonstrably constructive impact on our culture and our society at a time when doing so would have a tremendous cultural impact, and it didnā€™t happen. It was a moment that struck me with an odd sense of disappointment even as I cheered for Stone; a bit of the sour within the sweet.

That, aside from a sense of missed opportunity over the eveningā€™s consistent pattern of favoring the middle-of-the-road prestige represented by ā€œOppenheimerā€ over the edgier, more confrontational material presented by some of the other titles on the slate, was my biggest takeaway from the Academy Awards. Though I canā€™t say that any of the winners were unworthy, I canā€™t help thinking that their victories were somewhat tainted by the virtual shutout of “Barbie”, (which still feels to me like a message for female filmmakers to ā€œstay in their laneā€) and relatively low showing for ā€œPoor Thingsā€ (which took only 3 of the 11 awards for which it was nominated), and that their underappreciation for such films was for me proof that many of the professionals working within the industry are afraid of material that pushes the medium too far outside its traditional boundaries, that dares to imagine stories and ideas which give voice to ā€œoutsiderā€ concerns beyond the level of lip service, or that stretches the accepted limits of narrative entertainment.

More concerning, perhaps, is the minimal change that has come in the wake of the Academyā€™s much-publicized retooling to promote greater diversity and inclusion among the nominees. While itā€™s heartening to see people of color and queer people being brought into the mix more consistently than ever before, itā€™s also all the more painful when we see them passed over or relegated to the status of ā€œalso ranā€ most of the time. As a queer writer working for a queer publication, itā€™s impossible for me not to be impatient when films with strong LGBTQ content are lauded alongside mainstream titles only to consistently be passed over when it comes to the final victory. While queer subject matter, in varying degrees, was part of movies like ā€œRustinā€, ā€œNyadā€, and even ā€œBarbie,ā€ only two wins in the ā€œmajorā€ categories went to films that included significant queer themes – ā€œAmerican Fictionā€ and ā€œAnatomy of a Fallā€, both of which won for their screenplays.

And while itā€™s now old news, the Academyā€™s complete omission of Andrew Haighā€™s melancholy gay ghost story “All of Us Strangers,ā€ a queer UK film overwhelmingly embraced by other major awards bodies across the world and in America itself and considered a major contender before failing to earn a single Oscar nomination, and female filmmaker Emerald Fennellā€™s ā€œSaltburn,ā€ which hinged ā€“ at least ostensibly ā€“ on a queer attraction between stars Barry Keoghan and Jacob Elordi, speaks volumes about the comfort level surrounding queer content within mainstream Hollywood. Even ā€œMay December,ā€ a high-profile film directed by queer indie pioneer Todd Haynes but featuring only presumably heterosexual characters, received only a single nod (for Best Original Screenplay) for ā€œMay December,ā€ despite being widely considered a front-runner for several acting awards. While inclusivity doesnā€™t mean considering every queer-relevant movie a shoo-in for the competition, itā€™s telling when the Academy all but ignores queer titles that have been contenders and even winners at all the other major film award ceremonies, and frankly, itā€™s extremely annoying. While I canā€™t speak for women, those in the Black community, or other groups with a history of being dismissed by Oscar, I can only assume that their sentiments must resemble my own.

Yet as I reach the end of my observations about the latest installment of the Academy Awards, I find myself falling short of blaming the Academy itself, at least as an organization. While it has had a problematic history of dragging its feet when it comes to evolving toward a more all-embracing approach to bestowing honors, undeniable progress has been made. That this progress is infuriatingly slow is less a reflection on the awards than it is on Hollywood as a whole; after all, despite Academy efforts to ensure greater diversity among its nominees, itā€™s the individual choices of its voters that determines the final results ā€“ and if those results fail to accomplish more than the occasional token victory for the non-white-heterosexual contenders, itā€™s a symptom of the fact that those voices are underrepresented within the industry at large.

If we want to see an Academy Awards ceremony that truly accomplishes the kind of all-inclusive spirit for which it has so palpable a potential, we must continue to pressure the Hollywood industry at large to build a more diverse and inclusive creative environment. Otherwise, no matter how much they promise to do better, they will always fall short.

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Photos

PHOTOS: World AIDS Day at the White House

Memorial Quilt panels displayed on the South Lawn

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Panels of the AIDS Memorial Quilt are on display on the South Lawn of the White House for World AIDS Day on Dec. 1. (Washington Blade photo by Michael Key)

President Joe Biden, first lady Jill Biden and activist Jeanne White-Ginder spoke at a commemoration of World AIDS Day at the White House on Sunday, Dec. 1. Panels of the AIDS Memorial Quilt were displayed on the South Lawn for the first time in U.S. history.

(Washington Blade photos by Michael Key)

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Theater

D.C. holiday theater preview 2024

Need a little cheer? Weā€™ve got you covered

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The company of Step Afrika!'s ā€˜Magical Musical Holiday Step Showā€™ at Arena Stage. (Photo by Jati Lindsay)

In need of a little cheer? Fortunately, thereā€™s a fix. The DMV boasts a wealth of holiday-themed theater, music, and dance guaranteed to lift spirits and warm hearts. Hereā€™s a sliver of whatā€™s out there. 

Arena Stage invites audiences ā€œto step back into the holiday spirit with the joyful return of ā€˜Step Afrika!’s Magical Musical Holiday Step Showā€™ (Dec. 13-22) where the rich tradition of African-American stepping blends with the magic of the season.ā€ DJ Nutcracker and his Arctic friends promise to amplify the festive atmosphere. Arenastage.orgĀ 

Looking for a new way to experience a Christmas favorite? With the Kennedy Centerā€™s ā€œElf in Concert: Film with Live Orchestraā€ (through Dec. 1), you can relive the endearing comedy on a giant screen as every note of John Debneyā€™s wonderful score is played live by the National Symphony Orchestra. 

Another Kennedy Center holiday treat is ā€œFinnā€ (through Dec. 22). From Chris Nee, the out creator of TVā€™s ā€œDoc McStuffinsā€ and ā€œVampirina,ā€ ā€œFinnā€ is filled with vibrant sea creatures and catchy tunes. Hilarious and heartening, this world premiere musical chronicles the coming-of-age journey of a young shark following his dreams. Kennedy-center.orgĀ 

For those in search of yuletide camaraderie and keyboards, thereā€™s the National Cathedral Christmas Day Organ Recital (Dec. 25), a tradition featuring festive music performed (at the Cathedral) by Cathedral organist Thomas Sheehan, and organ scholar Ariana Corbin. Tickets not required. Livestream available.Ā  Nationalcathedral.org

At Baltimore Center Stage, ArtsCentricā€™s production of ā€œBlack Nativityā€ (Nov. 30-December 22) uses a fusion of blues, soul, jazz, spirituals, dance, and the powerful words of gay poet Langston Hughes, to tell the Christmas story through a wide-ranging African-American lens. Centerstage.org

For one night only, the Music Center at Strathmore in North Bethesda presents ā€œA Swinginā€™ Little Christmas!ā€ (Dec. 4), a nostalgic, Christmas kitsch cabaret featuring out TV star Jane Lynch (ā€œGlee,ā€ ā€œThe Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”), alongside Kate Flannery (ā€œThe Officeā€), Tim Davis (ā€œGleeā€™s” vocal arranger), and The Tony Guerrero Quintet. 

The following night, Dave Koz and Friends celebrate the 27th anniversary edition of the longest running jazz-based Christmas tour at Strathmore on Dec. 5. Koz, a longtime out musician (primarily sax), has released eight holiday albums, including his most recent, ā€œChristmas Ballads.ā€ Strathmore.org

Round House Theatre presents the world premiere of ā€œA Hannukah Carolā€ (through Dec. 29). The family-friendly musical comedy tells the story of millennial influencer Chava Kanipshin who in pursuit of more followers, shuns family, friends, and holiday traditions. But on the first night of Hanukkah, Chava is visited by the ghost of deceased social media star Mimi Marley and other spirits who warn her to change her ways ā€” or live to regret it. Roundhousetheatre.org.Ā 

Historic Fordā€™s Theatre again presents ā€œA Christmas Carolā€ (through Dec. 31), a popular Washington tradition for decades. Conceived by Michael Baron, this dynamically staged take on the Dickensā€™ classic features Craig Wallace as the miserly Scrooge who after a night of ghostly visits, rediscovers Christmas joy. In case you havenā€™t seen it, do. Fords.orgĀ 

At Olney Theatre, award-winning out actor Michael Russotto is stepping into the shoes of Paul Morella to star in this year’s edition of Morella’s celebrated solo adaptation of ā€œA Christmas Carol: A Ghost Story of Christmasā€ (Dec. 29). Russotto portrays more than 50 characters, from the miserly Scrooge to the haunting spirits, to the entire Cratchit family, including, of course, Tiny Tim. Olneytheatre.org

The adage that music can transport you to another time with just a couple of notes proves true at the Folger Library where Folger Consort, the estimable early music ensemble-in-residence, marvelously upholds a glorious Washington holiday tradition with ā€œA Mass for Christmas Eve: Baroque Music for the Seasonā€ (Dec. 6-15). Folger.eduĀ 

In Falls Church, Creative Cauldron presents ā€œMadelineā€™s Christmasā€ (Dec. 6-22), a charming show based on the classic book by author and illustrator Ludwig Bemelmans. Itā€™s Christmas Eve and taking care of 11 flu infected little girls and Miss Clavel isnā€™t easy, but when Madeline finds help from a magical rug merchant, all thatā€™s miserable is brushed away, and the girls embark on an unforgettable Christmas journey. Matt Conner directs. Creativecauldron.org

The Washington Balletā€™s ā€œThe Nutcrackerā€ at the glittering, gilded Warner Theatre (through Dec. 30). Featuring Tchaikovskyā€™s instantly familiar music and splendid choreography by Septime Weber, this Georgetown circa 1882-set production features historical figures ranging from George Washington to King George III, along with the usual suspects like children, rats, fairies, and a mysterious godfather. Washingtonballet.org

The Gay Menā€™s Chorus of Washington is back with its annual holiday extravaganza ā€œThe Holiday Showā€ (Dec. 4, 14, and 15) at Lincoln Theatre. This yearā€™s uplifting lineup includes eclectic songs with exciting rhythms and beautiful harmonies, and features the high-kicking, bedazzled 17th Street Dance as well as small ensembles and the GenOUT Youth Chorus! Songs include ā€œSee Amid the Winterā€™s Snow,ā€ ā€œFeliz Navidad,ā€ ā€œLove is Christmas,ā€ and ā€œSilent Night.ā€ Gmcw.org

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Bars & Parties

Ring in 2025 with a World Pride party

Rainbow Masquerade to be held at Hook Hall

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(Photo by Masson/Bigstock)

Capital Pride/World Pride will host Rainbow Masquerade at Hook Hall,  a New Yearā€™s Eve party featuring drag shows, silk aerial acts, private lounges and the venueā€™s Hot Tub Cabana. According to Brandon Bayton, Capital Pride executive producer, “Step into the Fabric of Freedom and toast World Pride 2025 in styleā€”where every moment sparkles, every performance dazzles and every toast makes a difference. It’s going to be an amazing night!”

The party is Tuesday, Dec. 31, 10 p.m.-2 a.m. at Hook Hall, 3400 Georgia Ave., N.W. Proceeds benefit Capital Pride D.C. and tickets are available on Eventbrite.

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