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Anti-LGBTQ ads dog Democrats in key races as polls tighten

Victory Fund’s Sean Meloy speaks with the Blade about recent attacks

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U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) (Washington Blade photo by Michael Key)

Key congressional races and the contest for the White House have become even tighter according to polling data released this week, as Republican campaigns, including former President Donald Trump’s team, targeted their opponents with $65 million in anti-LGBTQ and especially anti-trans attack ads.

With just 20 days until Nov. 5, Sean Meloy, vice president of political programs at the LGBTQ+ Victory Fund, spoke with the Washington Blade about how the GOP’s “despicable” paid media strategy is impacting races up and down the ballot.

“This is gonna be the most anti-LGBTQ [election] year probably since 2004, when it comes to presidential rhetoric,” Meloy said.

Many of the LGBTQ candidates supported by his organization are now contending with attacks against their very identities. Among them is incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin of the key swing state of Wisconsin, an out lesbian who made history with her elections to the House and then to the Senate — but is now, Meloy said, in the “fight of her life.”

Her reelection is critical for Democrats to retain their narrow majority in the Senate so Vice President Kamala Harris can effectuate her agenda if she wins the White House.

For most of the campaign, Baldwin has maintained a narrow lead over Republican challenger Eric Hovde, but the real estate and banking tycoon polled ahead of her for the first time in an internal survey whose findings were released over the weekend by the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Cook Political Report considers their race a toss-up.

“Tammy has done an amazing job fighting for all people in Wisconsin, whether it’s farmers, whether it’s laborers, and, of course, LGBTQ constituents, too,” Meloy said. “I don’t know how you get a better senator than Tammy Baldwin, and I’m not just saying that because she’s probably going to be — knock on wood — our only [out] LGBTQ voice in the U.S. Senate.”

Baldwin is not shaken by anti-LGBTQ attacks

The senator has “been the target of hundreds of millions of dollars in attacks, including these anti-LGBT, these anti-trans attacks,” but also of ads “talking about, you know, where she sleeps and who she sleeps with,” Meloy said — messages suffused with the kind of overt homophobia that for decades was considered out-of-bounds in electoral politics.

“The race has absolutely tightened,” Meloy said, and in response Hovde’s campaign is “deploying everything and the kitchen sink, including these anti-trans ads, including the attacks against [Baldwin] and her girlfriend.”

“Even though she was being attacked about her identity, she’s not running from who she is,” he said, pointing to the “wonderful story” she shared on X to honor National Coming Out Day on Friday.

“I think that that is exactly what people want in their congresspeople, what they want in their senators, what they want in their government,” Meloy said. “They want their government to look like the people they represent and people who aren’t going to put their finger in the wind just because tens of millions of dollars in ads are attacking them about who they are.”

Baldwin has “done the work, she’s proven herself, she’s built those relationships and helped make sure our community was represented in an amazing fashion, and that’s why so many folks are excited to support her.”

The next 20 days will prove critical, Meloy said, as the “Victory Fund is working with her campaign to make sure that she gets the resources that she needs in order to combat” the lies and bad-faith attacks from Hovde. He noted a recent rapid response call was organized to help Baldwin through the “anti-trans and anti-LGBTQ ads.”

Victory has “already raised over $300,000,” Meloy said, adding, “I wouldn’t be surprised if [Baldwin is] the candidate that we’ve raised the most for this year,” nor if the fundraising total for her 2024 campaign “is a record number, because she absolutely is in the fight of her life.”

Straight allies in close Senate races respond to anti-LGBTQ attacks

Other Democrats in close Senate races, like U.S. Rep. Colin Allred of Texas, who is running to unseat anti-LGBTQ U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, and U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, who is fending off a challenge from Republican businessman Bernie Moreno, have been targeted with anti-LGBTQ advertising, too.

The ads, riddled with falsehoods, focus primarily on the lawmakers’ support for allowing trans women and girls to compete on sports teams aligning with their gender identity.

In response, Allred cut a commercial in which he says, “I’m a dad. I’m also a Christian. My faith has taught me that all kids are god’s kids. So let me be clear. I don’t want boys playing girls sports, or any of this ridiculous stuff that Ted Cruz is saying.”

Brown’s team also responded to the attack with an ad in which the senator calls out misinformation and clarifies his stance — that the participation of trans athletes in competitive sports should be decided not by the government but by the individual leagues.

Meloy noted that Victory does not work with non-LGBTQ candidates, so he has limited insight into their campaign operations, but he stressed that while Allred and Brown were criticized by some LGBTQ advocates for appearing to signal a willingness to walk back their support for trans athletes, both have strong records of fighting to advance rights and protections for the community.

“I think that we know where their hearts are when it comes to believing in not discriminating,” Meloy said, and running against candidates like Cruz means having to dispel “a lot of misinformation, a lot of lies.”

In such circumstances, “sometimes, nuance is not going to be your friend,” he said, adding that the Republican “bigots” who are “using this rhetoric” to weaponize LGBTQ lives and identities in hopes of winning in November must be defeated.

“And then, we as a community need to make sure we hold their feet to the fire” to ensure the lawmakers reciprocate the support they received from their LGBTQ constituents — specifically, by passing the Equality Act, which would codify LGBTQ-inclusive nondiscrimination rules across the board, and by codifying into law protections for reproductive rights.

Anti-trans strategy will fail, but the most effective messages concern sports

“I think in the end, it’s going to prove not to work,” Meloy added, referring to the GOP’s strategy of “demonizing our community for political points.”

Echoing remarks from other LGBTQ leaders like Human Rights Campaign President Kelley Robinson, Meloy said the Republicans who leveraged anti-LGBTQ/anti-trans attacks in elections last year and in 2022 were mostly unsuccessful.

The strategy has “not been effective in winning swing districts, in winning battleground states, or even in conservative states,” he said. And “if these messages largely don’t work with independent voters,” Meloy asked, “who are they aimed at?”

Trump and other Republican candidates “are starting to bleed some of their base voters, and they need to continue to churn them out,” he said. So, with their transphobic rhetoric, the campaigns hope to get their right-wing supporters “foaming at the mouth again” while also reaching and engaging with the kind of disaffected men who are less likely to vote and who may admire anti-trans self-styled contrarians like Elon Musk.

The GOP’s strategy of using “trans lives to win votes” while “lying, all along the way, about those lives to do so” reeks of desperation, he said, while also inhibiting outreach to conservative or independent LGBTQ voters, to the extent that Republican campaigns ever sought to win over these voters in the first place.

At the same time, the New York Times reported last week that “Republican strategists said the focus on transgender women and girls in sports had been particularly effective with a key group of voters the party has hemorrhaged support from in recent years: college-educated suburban women.”

The conservative Wall Street Journal editorial board agreed, publishing an opinion piece on Sunday that was titled, “Transgender Sports Is a 2024 Sleeper Issue.”

“An ad in Wisconsin says Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin ‘voted to let biological men into women’s sports,'” the authors wrote, while “Hovde gets spontaneous applause when he raises the issue at campaign events.”

Meloy conceded Republicans will likely find more success with the sports issue relative to their other anti-trans messaging, but stressed that it remains “just the best of a bunch of bad narratives that don’t fully get the job done when it comes to moving folks in a purple district to 50+ one.”

He pointed to last year’s elections in the Virginia Legislature, which saw anti-LGBTQ messaging from Republicans, including attacks focused on the participation of trans athletes in competitive sports.

Nevertheless, Danica Roem won her bid for the state Senate, becoming the first openly trans official elected to serve in both chambers of a state legislature. Four of her Democratic colleagues who were targeted for their support of the trans community also won their races. And together, their victories helped to secure a Democratic pro-equality majority in the Virginia House of Delegates and the Virginia State Senate.

Harris might discuss trans athletes issue with Joe Rogan

The vice president is reportedly considering a sit-down with Joe Rogan, whose podcast boasts 17.3 million subscribers and is especially popular among young men.

Rogan has repeatedly inveighed against trans athletes participating in competitive sports. “It’s f—ing up women’s sports in a huge way,” he said last summer. “If you care at all about biological women, you should be against that.”

“Kamala Harris has proven to be a very strong ally of LGBTQ people and trans people,” Meloy said, “and so I think that she’s not going to be afraid to tell the truth there” if she chooses to do the podcast.

The Democratic nominee would be “going on there to show people that she’s not all what the right wing is making her out to be” with their attacks on her record, background, and identity.

The Trump campaign and his Republican supporters are lying about Harris just as they’re lying about trans people, Meloy said. “Her showing up, her being visible and saying, ‘Hey, I’m here. I’m actually wanting to do these things. Trans people are just trying to live their lives.’ I think that conversation will go really far in hopefully adjusting people’s mindsets from ‘oh, these these ads are saying one thing,’ when in reality they’re just not truthful.”

He added, “I’m very hopeful these tactics and Trumpism are repudiated so we can get back to a system, right? We can close that chapter. As Kamala Harris says, we can close this chapter in our history and get back to healthy and robust debate that is not based around who you are, but what ideas you have for the people. And I think the work is happening to help make sure that that kind of win happens.”

The campaign led by Harris and her vice presidential pick, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, is emblematic of that positive, forward-looking message, Meloy said. “So many Americans across every single demographic” are resonating with their focus on “freedom and protecting democracy and turning the chapter on this very, very difficult past eight years.”

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Congress

Van Hollen speaks at ‘ICE Out for Good’ protest in D.C.

ICE agent killed Renee Nicole Good in Minneapolis on Jan. 7

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U.S. Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) speaks at the 'ICE Out for Good' rally in D.C. (Washington Blade photo by Michael Key)

U.S. Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) is among those who spoke at an “ICE Out for Good” protest that took place outside U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s headquarters in D.C. on Tuesday.

The protest took place six days after a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent shot and killed Renee Nicole Good, a 37-year-old woman in Minneapolis.

Good left behind her wife and three children.

(Video by Michael K. Lavers)

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Congress

Advocates say MTG bill threatens trans youth, families, and doctors

The “Protect Children’s Innocence” Act passed in the House

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U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) speaks at a press conference on Sept. 20 for her anti-trans legislation. (Washington Blade photo by Michael Key)

Georgia Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene has a long history of targeting the transgender community as part of her political agenda. Now, after announcing her resignation from the U.S. House of Representatives, attempting to take away trans rights may be the last thing she does in her official capacity.

The proposed legislation, dubbed “Protect Children’s Innocence Act” is among the most extreme anti-trans measures to move through Congress. It would put doctors in jail for up to 10 years if they provide gender-affirming care to minors — including prescribing hormone replacement therapy to adolescents or puberty blockers to younger children. The bill also aims to halt gender-affirming surgeries for minors, though those procedures are rare.

Greene herself described the bill on X, saying if passed, “it would make it a Class C felony to trans a child under 18.”

According to KFF, a nonpartisan source for health policy research, polling, and journalism, 27 states have enacted policies limiting youth access to gender-affirming care. Roughly half of all trans youth ages 13–17 live in a state with such restrictions, and 24 states impose professional or legal penalties on health care practitioners who provide that care.

Greene has repeatedly introduced the bill since 2021, the year she entered Congress, but it failed to advance. Now, in exchange for her support for the National Defense Authorization Act, the legislation reached the House floor for the first time.

According to the 19th, U.S. Rep. Sarah McBride (D-Del.), the first trans member of Congress, rebuked Republicans on the Capitol steps Wednesday for advancing anti-trans legislation while allowing Affordable Care Act tax credits to expire — a move expected to raise health care costs for millions of Americans.

“They would rather have us focus in and debate a misunderstood and vulnerable one percent of the population, instead of focusing in on the fact that they are raiding everyone’s health care,” McBride said. “They are obsessed with trans people … they are consumed with this.”

Polling suggests the public largely opposes criminalizing gender-affirming care.

A recent survey by the Human Rights Campaign and Global Strategy Group found that 73 percent of voters in U.S. House battleground districts oppose laws that would jail doctors or parents for providing transition-related care. Additionally, 77 percent oppose forcing trans people off medically recommended medication. Nearly seven in 10 Americans said politicians are not informed enough to make decisions about medical care for trans youth.

The bill passed the House and now heads to the U.S. Senate for further consideration.

According to reporting by Erin Reed of Erin In The Morning, three Democrats — U.S. Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez of Texas and Don Davis of North Carolina — crossed party lines to vote in favor of the felony ban, joining 213 Republicans. A total of 207 Democrats voted against the bill, while three lawmakers from both parties abstained.

Advocates and lawmakers warned the bill is dangerous and unprecedented during a multi-organizational press call Tuesday. Leaders from the Human Rights Campaign and the Trevor Project joined U.S. Rep. Becca Balint (D-Vt.), Dr. Kenneth Haller, and parents of trans youth to discuss the potential impact of restrictive policies like Greene’s — particularly in contrast to President Donald Trump’s leniency toward certain criminals, with more than 1,500 pardons issued this year.

“Our MAGA GOP government has pardoned drug traffickers. They’ve pardoned people who tried to overthrow the government on January 6, but now they want to put pediatricians and parents into a jail cell for caring for their kids,” said Human Rights Campaign President Kelley Robinson. “No one asked for Marjorie Taylor Greene or Dan Crenshaw or any politician to be in their doctor’s office, and they should mind their own business.”

Balint, co-chair of the Congressional Equality Caucus, questioned why medical decisions are being made by lawmakers with no clinical expertise.

“Parents and doctors already have to worry about state laws banning care for their kids, and this bill would introduce the risk of federal criminal prosecution,” Balint said. “We’re talking about jail time. We’re talking about locking people up for basic medical care, care that is evidence-based, age-appropriate and life-saving.”

“These are decisions that should be made by doctors and parents and those kids that need this gender-affirming care, not certainly by Marjorie Taylor Greene.”

Haller, an emeritus professor of pediatrics at St. Louis University School of Medicine, described the legislation as rooted in ideology rather than medicine.

“It is not science, it is just blind ideology,” Haller said.

“The doctor tells you that as parents, as well as the doctor themselves, could be convicted of a felony and be sentenced up to 10 years in prison just for pursuing a course of action that will give your child their only chance for a happy and healthy future,” he added. “It is not in the state’s best interests, and certainly not in the interests of us, the citizens of this country, to interfere with medical decisions that people make about their own bodies and their own lives.”

Haller’s sentiment is echoed by doctors across the country.

The American Medical Association, the nation’s largest organization that represents doctors across the country in various parts of medicine has a longstanding support for gender-affirming care.

“The AMA supports public and private health insurance coverage for treatment of gender dysphoria and opposes the denial of health insurance based on sexual orientation or gender identity,” their website reads.

Rodrigo Heng-Lehtinen, senior vice president of public engagement campaigns at the Trevor Project, agreed.

“In Marjorie Taylor Greene’s bill [it] even goes so far as to criminalize and throw a parent in jail for this,” Heng-Lehtinen said. “Medical decisions should be between patients, families, and their doctors.”

Rachel Gonzalez, a parent of a transgender teen and LGBTQ advocate, said the bill would harm families trying to act in their children’s best interests.

“No politician should be in any doctor’s office or in our living room making private health care decisions — especially not Marjorie Taylor Greene,” Gonzalez said. “My daughter and no trans youth should ever be used as a political pawn.”

Other LGBTQ rights activists also condemned the legislation.

Tyler Hack, executive director of the Christopher Street Project, called the bill “an abominable attack on the transgender community.”

“Marjorie Taylor Greene’s last-ditch effort to bring her 3-times failed bill to a vote is an abominable attack on the transgender community and further cements a Congressional career defined by hate and bigotry,” they said. “We are counting down the days until she’s off Capitol Hill — but as the bill goes to the floor this week, our leaders must stand up one last time to her BS and protect the safety of queer kids and medical providers. Full stop.”

Hack added that “healthcare is a right, not a privilege” in the U.S., and this attack on trans healthcare is an attack on queer rights altogether. 

“Marjorie Taylor Greene has no place in deciding what care is necessary,” Hack added. “This is another attempt to legislate trans and queer people out of existence while peddling an agenda rooted in pseudoscience and extremism.”

U.S. Rep. Mark Takano (D-Calif.), chair of the Congressional Equality Caucus, also denounced the legislation.

“This bill is the most extreme anti-transgender legislation to ever pass through the House of Representatives and a direct attack on the rights of parents to work with their children and their doctors to provide them with the medical care they need,” Takano said. “This bill is beyond cruel and its passage will forever be a stain on the institution of the United States Congress.”

The bill is unlikely to advance in the Senate, where it would need 60 votes to pass.

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LGBTQ Democrats say they’re ready to fight to win in 2026

DNC winter meetings took place last weekend in Los Angeles

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Then-Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at the 2024 Democratic National Convention in Chicago on Aug. 22, 2024. The former vice president spoke at the Democratic National Committee's annual winter meetings in Los Angeles. (Washington Blade photo by Michael Key)

The Democratic National Committee held its annual winter meetings in Downtown Los Angeles over the weekend, and queer Democrats showed up with a clear message for the national organization: don’t abandon queer and transgender people.

Following last year’s disastrous presidential and congressional elections, many influential pundits and some powerful lawmakers called on Democrats to distance the party from unpopular positions on trans rights, in order to win swing districts by wooing more conservative voters.

But members of the DNC’s LGBTQ Caucus say that’s actually a losing strategy.

“There are still parts of our party saying we need to abandon trans people in order to win elections, which is just not provable, actually. It’s just some feelings from some old consultants in DC,” LGBTQ Caucus Chair Sean Meloy says.

Some national Democrats are already backtracking from suggestions that they walk back on trans rights. 

California Gov. Gavin Newsom grabbed national attention in March when he suggested that it was “deeply unfair” for trans girls to play in women’s sports. But last week, he doubled down on support for trans rights, claiming to have signed more trans-rights legislation than any governor in the country, and entering into feuds on X with Elon Musk and Nicki Minaj over his support for trans kids.

Democrats are also clearly feeling the wind in their sails recently after major election victories in Virginia and New Jersey last month, as well as victories in dozens of local and state legislative elections across the country in 2025. 

“[Abigail] Spanberger in Virginia didn’t win by dodging the trans question. She won by attacking it, confronting it, and that’s how she got ahead,” says Vivian Smotherman, a trans activist and at-large member of the DNC’s LGBTQ Caucus.

“Trans people are not a problem. We are a resource,” Smotherman says. “For my community, surviving into adulthood is not a guarantee, it’s an accomplishment. You don’t walk through a survival gauntlet without learning things … I’m not begging the DNC to protect my community. I’m here to remind you that we are the warriors tempered by fire, and we are fully capable of helping this party win.”

At its own meeting on Friday, the LGBTQ Caucus announced several new initiatives to ensure that queer and trans issues stay top of mind for the DNC as it gears up for the midterm elections next year.

One plan is to formalize the DNC’s Trans Advisory Board as distinct from the LGBTQ Caucus, to help introduce candidates across the country to trans people and trans issues.

“One in three people in this country know a trans person. Two-thirds of Americans don’t think they do,” Smotherman says. “So the real problem is not being trans, it’s that you don’t know us. You cannot authentically support a trans person if you’ve never met one. 

“That’s why my first goal with this Trans Advisory Board is to host a monthly Meet a Trans Person webinar. Not as a spectacle, as a debate, but as a human connection, and I will be charging every state chair with asking every one of their candidates up and down the board if they know a trans person. And if that person doesn’t know a trans person, I’m gonna have that state chair put them on that webinar.”

The LGBTQ caucus is also opening up associate membership to allies who do not identify as LGBTQ, in order to broaden support and connections over queer issues.

It’s also preparing for the inevitable attacks Republicans will throw at queer candidates and supporters of LGBTQ issues. 

“These attacks are going to come. You have to budget money proactively. You have to be ready to fight,” Meloy says. “There are some local party chairs who don’t want to recruit LGBTQ candidates to run because these issues might come up, right? That’s an absolutely ludicrous statement, but there are still people who need support in how to be ready and how to respond to these things that inevitably come.” 

“The oldest joke is that Democrats don’t have a spine. And when they come after us, and we do not reply, we play right into that.” 

Meloy also alluded to anti-LGBTQ tropes that queer people are out to harm children, and said that Democrats should be prepared to make the case that it’s actually Republicans who are protecting child abusers – for example, by suppressing the Epstein files.

“They are weak on this issue. Take the fight, empower your parties to say, ‘These people have nothing to stand on,’” Meloy says.

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