National
Romney’s debate bounce worries Obama supporters
‘Progressives should contemplate what life in Canada might be like’
Polls are showing GOP nominee Mitt Romney has a slight lead in national polls in the weeks prior to Election Day. (Blade file photo by Michael Key)
New polling data in the presidential race following last week’s debate is giving Democrats heartburn, suggesting that President Obama may not coast to victory on Election Day as many observers previously predicted.
On Tuesday, two national polls were published giving Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney a narrow lead over Obama. A report from Public Policy Polling found the GOP candidate had support from 49 percent of likely voters in the poll, compared to 47 percent for Obama. A Gallup tracking poll published on the same day had identical results.
Hilary Rosen, a lesbian Democratic activist and commentator, said Democrats “of course” should be concerned that Obama is facing a challenging road to re-election, but she remained optimistic.
“This race was always going to be decided by 1 or 2 points,” Rosen said. “Everyone in the D.C. Metro area can help by making sure the president wins in Virginia. I am confident that we [will] have another Obama rebound story coming in the next few weeks.”
The polling was conducted in the days after the Denver presidential debate, in which most observers believed Romney bested Obama — despite making controversial comments about cutting the federal subsidy for PBS as well as apparently altering his views on tax cuts for the wealthy and barring insurance companies from discriminating on the basis of pre-existing conditions.
The Tuesday polls came the day after the Pew Research Center published a poll giving Romney a 4-point lead over Obama among those most likely to vote. Just last month, the same poll gave Obama an 8-point lead over Romney. Other polls this week from Rasmussen, Reuters and Zogby have the race in a dead-heat.
The Pew results received significant attention because they were the first to place Romney ahead of Obama and because the same pollster had previously given Obama a wide lead. But the report was also seen as an outlier because — as pointed out by Electoral Vote Predictor — the internals of the poll are questionable.
In the October sample, 31 percent of respondents identified as Democrats, compared to 39 percent in September. Conversely, 36 percent of respondents identified as Republicans in October compared to 29 percent in September. Consequently, Pew may have undersampled Democrats and oversampled Republicans.
Richard Grenell, who’s gay and briefly served as the Romney campaign’s foreign policy spokesperson, said he doesn’t “put much stock in snapshot polls,” but believes Romney could win the election based on anecdotal evidence he’s heard from people unhappy with Obama.
“I’ve always known the American people are frustrated and disappointed with President Obama’s disastrous leadership both domestically and globally,” Grenell said. “Sadly, President Obama has failed to unite the country and has been one of the most divisive leaders the U.S. has ever seen. I keep hearing from people that voted for Obama in 2008 who will be voting for Romney now. Romney has a real chance.”
In polls taken in battleground states, the race is similarly showing signs of tightening. An American Research Group poll published Tuesday gave Romney a narrow lead in two swing states. In Colorado, the poll gave Romney a lead of 50 percent compared to the 46 percent of respondents who favored Obama, although three percent were undecided. In Ohio, Romney edged Obama by a 48-47 margin with four percent of voters identifying as undecided.
Still, the news was good for Obama in other polls for key battleground states. Contrary to American Research Group results for Ohio, a CNN/ORC poll gave Obama a significant lead in the state, placing him ahead of Romney, 51-47.
According to a Siena poll published Tuesday, Obama still enjoys a lead over Romney in Pennsylvania. Obama was favored by 43 percent of likely voters in the Keystone State and Romney has the support of 40 percent — although 12 percent were undecided.
Dan Pinello, who’s gay and a political scientist at the City University of New York, said the changes in the polls reflect the volatile nature of public opinion over the course of the presidential campaign season.
“Thus, the best answer now about whether the first debate succeeded in salvaging Romney’s campaign — and whether Barack Obama’s lackluster performance snatched defeat from the jaws of victory — is: It’s too soon to know for sure,” Pinello said. “At least another week of polling data is necessary for any certainty.”
The next test for the presidential campaign could be the debate between Vice President Joseph Biden and Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan on Thursday at Centre College in Danville, Ky. Two more presidential debates between Obama and Biden — one a town hall discussion at Hofstra University on Oct. 16 and another a foreign policy debate at Lynn University in Florida on Oct. 22 — are set to take place before Election Day.
Pinello maintained incumbent presidents often come back after first debate performances that are regarded as poor — recalling John Kerry’s perceived win over George W. Bush in the first debate of 2004 as well as a first debate in 1984 when President Reagan was regarded to have fared poorly against Democrat Walter Mondale.
“In both instances, the incumbents did better in subsequent debates, and voters apparently gave them any benefit of the doubt,” Pinello said. “Indeed, incumbent presidents have inherent advantages. They are known commodities to voters, while challengers necessarily represent a political roll of the dice.”
If Biden triumphs in the vice presidential debate, Pinello said the rise in popularity for the Romney-Ryan ticket could diminish as quickly as it emerged. But Pinello issued a warning to Democrats if more poor debate performances follow.
“Needless to say, if Ryan trounces Biden on Thursday, then all bets are off,” Pinello said. “Progressives should contemplate what life in Canada might be like.”
National
United Methodist Church removes 40-year ban on gay clergy
Delegates also voted for other LGBTQ-inclusive measures
The United Methodist Church on Wednesday removed a ban on gay clergy that was in place for more than 40 years, voting to also allow LGBTQ weddings and end prohibitions on the use of United Methodist funds to “promote acceptance of homosexuality.”
Overturning the policy forbidding the church from ordaining “self-avowed practicing homosexuals” effectively formalized a practice that had caused an estimated quarter of U.S. congregations to leave the church.
The New York Times notes additional votes “affirming L.G.B.T.Q. inclusion in the church are expected before the meeting adjourns on Friday.” Wednesday’s measures were passed overwhelmingly and without debate. Delegates met in Charlotte, N.C.
According to the church’s General Council on Finance and Administration, there were 5,424,175 members in the U.S. in 2022 with an estimated global membership approaching 10 million.
The Times notes that other matters of business last week included a “regionalization” plan, which gave autonomy to different regions such that they can establish their own rules on matters including issues of sexuality — about which international factions are likelier to have more conservative views.
Rev. Kipp Nelson of St. Johns’s on the Lake Methodist Church in Miami shared a statement praising the new developments:
“It is a glorious day in the United Methodist Church. As a worldwide denomination, we have now publicly proclaimed the boundless love of God and finally slung open the doors of our church so that all people, no matter their identities or orientations, may pursue the calling of their hearts.
“Truly, all are loved and belong here among us. I am honored to serve as a pastor in the United Methodist Church for such a time as this, for our future is bright and filled with hope. Praise be, praise be.”
Federal Government
Republican state AGs challenge Biden administration’s revised Title IX policies
New rules protect LGBTQ students from discrimination
Four Republicans state attorneys general have sued the Biden-Harris administration over the U.S. Department of Education’s new Title IX policies that were finalized April 19 and carry anti-discrimination protections for LGBTQ students in public schools.
The lawsuit filed on Tuesday, which is led by the attorneys general of Kentucky and Tennessee, follows a pair of legal challenges from nine Republican states on Monday — all contesting the administration’s interpretation that sex-based discrimination under the statute also covers that which is based on the victim’s sexual orientation or gender identity.
The administration also rolled back Trump-era rules governing how schools must respond to allegations of sexual harassment and sexual assault, which were widely perceived as biased in favor of the interests of those who are accused.
“The U.S. Department of Education has no authority to let boys into girls’ locker rooms,” Tennessee Attorney General Jonathan Skrmetti said in a statement. “In the decades since its adoption, Title IX has been universally understood to protect the privacy and safety of women in private spaces like locker rooms and bathrooms.”
“Florida is suing the Biden administration over its unlawful Title IX changes,” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis wrote on social media. “Biden is abusing his constitutional authority to push an ideological agenda that harms women and girls and conflicts with the truth.”
After announcing the finalization of the department’s new rules, Education Secretary Miguel Cardona told reporters, “These regulations make it crystal clear that everyone can access schools that are safe, welcoming and that respect their rights.”
The new rule does not provide guidance on whether schools must allow transgender students to play on sports teams corresponding with their gender identity to comply with Title IX, a question that is addressed in a separate rule proposed by the agency in April.
LGBTQ and civil rights advocacy groups praised the changes. Lambda Legal issued a statement arguing the new rule “protects LGBTQ+ students from discrimination and other abuse,” adding that it “appropriately underscores that Title IX’s civil rights protections clearly cover LGBTQ+ students, as well as survivors and pregnant and parenting students across race and gender identity.”
Federal Government
4th Circuit rules gender identity is a protected characteristic
Ruling a response to N.C., W.Va. legal challenges
BY ERIN REED | The 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled Monday that transgender people are a protected class and that Medicaid bans on trans care are unconstitutional.
Furthermore, the court ruled that discriminating based on a diagnosis of gender dysphoria is discrimination based on gender identity and sex. The ruling is in response to lower court challenges against state laws and policies in North Carolina and West Virginia that prevent trans people on state plans or Medicaid from obtaining coverage for gender-affirming care; those lower courts found such exclusions unconstitutional.
In issuing the final ruling, the 4th Circuit declared that trans exclusions were “obviously discriminatory” and were “in violation of the equal protection clause” of the Constitution, upholding lower court rulings that barred the discriminatory exclusions.
The 4th Circuit ruling focused on two cases in states within its jurisdiction: North Carolina and West Virginia. In North Carolina, trans state employees who rely on the State Health Plan were unable to use it to obtain gender-affirming care for gender dysphoria diagnoses.
In West Virginia, a similar exclusion applied to those on the state’s Medicaid plan for surgeries related to a diagnosis of gender dysphoria. Both exclusions were overturned by lower courts, and both states appealed to the 4th Circuit.
Attorneys for the states had argued that the policies were not discriminatory because the exclusions for gender affirming care “apply to everyone, not just transgender people.” The majority of the court, however, struck down such a claim, pointing to several other cases where such arguments break down, such as same-sex marriage bans “applying to straight, gay, lesbian, and bisexual people equally,” even though straight people would be entirely unaffected by such bans.
Other cases cited included literacy tests, a tax on wearing kippot for Jewish people, and interracial marriage in Loving v. Virginia.
See this portion of the court analysis here:
Of particular note in the majority opinion was a section on Geduldig v. Aiello that seemed laser-targeted toward an eventual U.S. Supreme Court decision on discriminatory policies targeting trans people. Geduldig v. Aiello, a 1974 ruling, determined that pregnancy discrimination is not inherently sex discrimination because it does not “classify on sex,” but rather, on pregnancy status.
Using similar arguments, the states claimed that gender affirming care exclusions did not classify or discriminate based on trans status or sex, but rather, on a diagnosis of gender dysphoria and treatments to alleviate that dysphoria.
The majority was unconvinced, ruling, “gender dysphoria is so intimately related to transgender status as to be virtually indistinguishable from it. The excluded treatments aim at addressing incongruity between sex assigned at birth and gender identity, the very heart of transgender status.” In doing so, the majority cited several cases, many from after Geduldig was decided.
Notably, Geduldig was cited in both the 6th and 11th Circuit decisions upholding gender affirming care bans in a handful of states.
The court also pointed to the potentially ridiculous conclusions that strict readings of what counts as proxy discrimination could lead to, such as if legislators attempted to use “XX chromosomes” and “XY chromosomes” to get around sex discrimination policies:
Importantly, the court also rebutted recent arguments that Bostock applies only to “limited Title VII claims involving employers who fired” LGBTQ employees, and not to Title IX, which the Affordable Care Act’s anti-discrimination mandate references. The majority stated that this is not the case, and that there is “nothing in Bostock to suggest the holding was that narrow.”
Ultimately, the court ruled that the exclusions on trans care violate the Equal Protection Clause of the Constitution. The court also ruled that the West Virginia Medicaid Program violates the Medicaid Act and the anti-discrimination provisions of the Affordable Care Act.
Additionally, the court upheld the dismissal of anti-trans expert testimony for lacking relevant expertise. West Virginia and North Carolina must end trans care exclusions in line with earlier district court decisions.
The decision will likely have nationwide impacts on court cases in other districts. The case had become a major battleground for trans rights, with dozens of states filing amicus briefs in favor or against the protection of the equal process rights of trans people. Twenty-one Republican states filed an amicus brief in favor of denying trans people anti-discrimination protections in healthcare, and 17 Democratic states joined an amicus brief in support of the healthcare rights of trans individuals.
Many Republican states are defending anti-trans laws that discriminate against trans people by banning or limiting gender-affirming care. These laws could come under threat if the legal rationale used in this decision is adopted by other circuits. In the 4th Circuit’s jurisdiction, West Virginia and North Carolina already have gender-affirming care bans for trans youth in place, and South Carolina may consider a similar bill this week.
The decision could potentially be used as precedent to challenge all of those laws in the near future and to deter South Carolina’s bill from passing into law.
The decision is the latest in a web of legal battles concerning trans people. Earlier this month, the 4th Circuit also reversed a sports ban in West Virginia, ruling that Title IX protects trans student athletes. However, the Supreme Court recently narrowed a victory for trans healthcare from the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals and allowed Idaho to continue enforcing its ban on gender-affirming care for everyone except the two plaintiffs in the case.
Importantly, that decision was not about the constitutionality of gender-affirming care, but the limits of temporary injunctions in the early stages of a constitutional challenge to discriminatory state laws. It is likely that the Supreme Court will ultimately hear cases on this topic in the near future.
Celebrating the victory, Lambda Legal Counsel and Health Care Strategist Omar Gonzalez-Pagan said in a posted statement, “The court’s decision sends a clear message that gender-affirming care is critical medical care for transgender people and that denying it is harmful and unlawful … We hope this decision makes it clear to policy makers across the country that health care decisions belong to patients, their families, and their doctors, not to politicians.”
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Erin Reed is a transgender woman (she/her pronouns) and researcher who tracks anti-LGBTQ+ legislation around the world and helps people become better advocates for their queer family, friends, colleagues, and community. Reed also is a social media consultant and public speaker.
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The preceding article was first published at Erin In The Morning and is republished with permission.
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United Methodist Church removes 40-year ban on gay clergy
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HHS reverses Trump-era anti-LGBTQ rule
4th Circuit rules gender identity is a protected characteristic
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