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Romney’s debate bounce worries Obama supporters

‘Progressives should contemplate what life in Canada might be like’

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President Obama (right) and Mitt Romney are set to square off on domestic issues at next week's debate in Denver (Blade photo by Michael Key)

Polls are showing GOP nominee Mitt Romney has a slight lead in national polls  in the weeks prior to Election Day. (Blade file photo by Michael Key)

New polling data in the presidential race following last week’s debate is giving Democrats heartburn, suggesting that President Obama may not coast to victory on Election Day as many observers previously predicted.

On Tuesday, two national polls were published giving Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney a narrow lead over Obama. A report from Public Policy Polling found the GOP candidate had support from 49 percent of likely voters in the poll, compared to 47 percent for Obama. A Gallup tracking poll published on the same day had identical results.

Hilary Rosen, a lesbian Democratic activist and commentator, said Democrats “of course” should be concerned that Obama is facing a challenging road to re-election, but she remained optimistic.

“This race was always going to be decided by 1 or 2 points,” Rosen said. “Everyone in the D.C. Metro area can help by making sure the president wins in Virginia. I am confident that we [will] have another Obama rebound story coming in the next few weeks.”

The polling was conducted in the days after the Denver presidential debate, in which most observers believed Romney bested Obama — despite making controversial comments about cutting the federal subsidy for PBS as well as apparently altering his views on tax cuts for the wealthy and barring insurance companies from discriminating on the basis of pre-existing conditions.

The Tuesday polls came the day after the Pew Research Center published a poll giving Romney a 4-point lead over Obama among those most likely to vote. Just last month, the same poll gave Obama an 8-point lead over Romney. Other polls this week from Rasmussen, Reuters and Zogby have the race in a dead-heat.

The Pew results received significant attention because they were the first to place Romney ahead of Obama and because the same pollster had previously given Obama a wide lead. But the report was also seen as an outlier because — as pointed out by Electoral Vote Predictor — the internals of the poll are questionable.

In the October sample, 31 percent of respondents identified as Democrats, compared to 39 percent in September. Conversely, 36 percent of respondents identified as Republicans in October compared to 29 percent in September. Consequently, Pew may have undersampled Democrats and oversampled Republicans.

Richard Grenell, who’s gay and briefly served as the Romney campaign’s foreign policy spokesperson, said he doesn’t “put much stock in snapshot polls,” but believes Romney could win the election based on anecdotal evidence he’s heard from people unhappy with Obama.

“I’ve always known the American people are frustrated and disappointed with President Obama’s disastrous leadership both domestically and globally,” Grenell said. “Sadly, President Obama has failed to unite the country and has been one of the most divisive leaders the U.S. has ever seen. I keep hearing from people that voted for Obama in 2008 who will be voting for Romney now. Romney has a real chance.”

In polls taken in battleground states, the race is similarly showing signs of tightening. An American Research Group poll published Tuesday gave Romney a narrow lead in two swing states. In Colorado, the poll gave Romney a lead of 50 percent compared to the 46 percent of respondents who favored Obama, although three percent were undecided. In Ohio, Romney edged Obama by a 48-47 margin with four percent of voters identifying as undecided.

Still, the news was good for Obama in other polls for key battleground states. Contrary to American Research Group results for Ohio, a CNN/ORC poll gave Obama a significant lead in the state, placing him ahead of Romney, 51-47.

According to a Siena poll published Tuesday, Obama still enjoys a lead over Romney in Pennsylvania. Obama was favored by 43 percent of likely voters in the Keystone State and Romney has the support of 40 percent — although 12 percent were undecided.

Dan Pinello, who’s gay and a political scientist at the City University of New York, said the changes in the polls reflect the volatile nature of public opinion over the course of the presidential campaign season.

“Thus, the best answer now about whether the first debate succeeded in salvaging Romney’s campaign — and whether Barack Obama’s lackluster performance snatched defeat from the jaws of victory — is:  It’s too soon to know for sure,” Pinello said. “At least another week of polling data is necessary for any certainty.”

The next test for the presidential campaign could be the debate between Vice President Joseph Biden and Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan on Thursday at Centre College in Danville, Ky. Two more presidential debates between Obama and Biden — one a town hall discussion at Hofstra University on Oct. 16 and another a foreign policy debate at Lynn University in Florida on Oct. 22 — are set to take place before Election Day.

Pinello maintained incumbent presidents often come back after first debate performances that are regarded as poor — recalling John Kerry’s perceived win over George W. Bush in the first debate of 2004 as well as a first debate in 1984 when President Reagan was regarded to have fared poorly against Democrat Walter Mondale.

“In both instances, the incumbents did better in subsequent debates, and voters apparently gave them any benefit of the doubt,” Pinello said. “Indeed, incumbent presidents have inherent advantages. They are known commodities to voters, while challengers necessarily represent a political roll of the dice.”

If Biden triumphs in the vice presidential debate, Pinello said the rise in popularity for the Romney-Ryan ticket could diminish as quickly as it emerged. But Pinello issued a warning to Democrats if more poor debate performances follow.

“Needless to say, if Ryan trounces Biden on Thursday, then all bets are off,” Pinello said. “Progressives should contemplate what life in Canada might be like.”

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Florida

Gay Fla. Democrat Elijah Manley sees opportunity in Trump’s second term

State’s 20th Congressional District’s includes Broward, Palm Beach Counties

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Elijah Manley (Photo courtesy of the Elijah Manley campaign)

Just over two and a half miles from President Donald Trump’s primary residence lies one of Florida’s most reliably Democratic congressional districts. There, a 27-year-old progressive is mounting a campaign centered on resisting what he calls the Trump-Vance administration’s attacks on civil rights, immigrants, and LGBTQ Americans.

Elijah Manley, an openly gay Democrat, sat down with the Washington Blade to discuss why he is running for Florida’s 20th Congressional District, why he believes this moment calls for a new generation of leadership, and what he hopes to accomplish if elected to Congress.

Born and raised in Fort Lauderdale’s historic Sistrunk neighborhood — the city’s oldest African American community — Manley was raised by a single mother who struggled to make ends meet. His family experienced housing insecurity and, at one point, homelessness, experiences he says continue to shape both his politics and his policy priorities.

For Manley, those experiences are precisely what he believes Congress is missing.

“I think now the country is in need of somebody like me, with my story, my lived experience, the struggles I’ve been through in my life. We’re going through a really dark time in the country with the Trump administration coming for our civil rights and an economy that is not working for everybody. In a time where we have MAGA fascism, we need progressive leadership, and we need people who are really going to do the work of fighting back and resisting and obstructing Donald Trump and MAGA Republicans’ agenda in Congress.”

Manley said his campaign is also about ensuring people from marginalized communities — those without wealth, political connections, or institutional backing — have a voice in Congress.

“I think my story sets me aside from everyone else. I’m the only one in this race who has a story to tell voters that lines up with their lived experiences and their struggles. Growing up in poverty and experiencing homelessness was instrumental in developing my worldview and how I fight for people, and I think that’s something that’s absent on Capitol Hill.”

He argues that lived experience offers a perspective often missing on Capitol Hill.

“There are too many lawyers and people coming from professional and political backgrounds. Then you have somebody like me who is rooted in the story of this district. That’s what sets me apart from everyone else in this race.”

According to his campaign website, Manley’s interest in public service dates back to childhood. He cites the election of President Barack Obama as a defining moment that inspired him to pursue politics.

“He was inspired by Barack Obama’s historic election, igniting his passion for public service. He began writing to elected officials, speaking at school board and city council meetings, and advocating for issues affecting his community,” the website states. It goes on to describe his involvement in criminal justice and law magnet programs, Navy JROTC, and hundreds of hours of volunteer service while in high school.

Elijah Manley (Photo courtesy of the Elijah Manley campaign)

As an openly gay candidate running during Trump’s second administration, Manley said Congress must take a far more aggressive approach to protecting LGBTQ Americans, particularly as Republican-led states continue passing restrictions targeting transgender people.

“I think we need to bring the hammer down on some of these states. I’m not one of these states’ rights people — Congress has the power to preempt laws that states pass through the Supremacy Clause. There’s never been a more important time in our history when we’re seeing fascism, we’re seeing an administration out of control, and we need Congress to act.”

His campaign has also drawn criticism from both Republicans and establishment Democrats for his positions on Gaza, immigration, and his call to abolish U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

Manley said abolishing ICE does not mean eliminating immigration enforcement altogether.

“I’m not saying there should be no immigration laws. We want laws around immigration, but we want dignity. We don’t need a hypermilitarized, paramilitary group chasing people through the streets, terrorizing communities, churches, schools, and families.”

His personal experiences also inform his healthcare agenda.

“When we talk about healthcare, my experience growing up on Medicaid is seeing the failure of the government to expand Medicaid here in Florida, and now we’re seeing cuts from the Trump administration. I’m not just looking at statistics or numbers on paper — this is based on lived experience. I know how the people in this district are going to be hurt by these policies because I’ve lived it.”

California Democratic Congressman Ro Khanna, who has generated early buzz as a potential 2028 presidential contender for his “progressive capitalist” approach to governing, has endorsed Manley’s campaign, giving the first-time congressional candidate one of his highest-profile endorsements.

Manley faces six other Democrats in the primary, including U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz and former U.S. Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, along with four Republican candidates in the general election field. Cherfilus-McCormick resigned from Congress ahead of a potential expulsion and is running again while facing federal criminal charges.

Despite running as the youngest candidate in the field, Manley said he hopes voters leave the race remembering one thing above all else.

“I want people to remember bold and authentic leadership. I want them to know I’m running because I’ve been through what people are going through right now — and it’s not that I’ve been through it, I’m actually still going through it. We need bold people who are going to fight for everybody and stand up for what’s right, and that’s what I hope voters see when they go to the polls.” 

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Florida

Former Fla. gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum arrested on drug charges 

Democrat narrowly lost to DeSantis in 2018, later came out as bisexual

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Andrew Gillum in 2020. (Photo public domain)

Andrew Gillum, the former Democratic nominee for governor of Florida and former mayor of Tallahassee, was arrested on drug possession charges in Alabama last week.

Police in Daphne, Ala., said they pulled Gillum over for erratic driving and found marijuana and methamphetamine in his vehicle. He was charged with possession of marijuana and unlawful possession of a controlled substance, according to the Daphne Police Department. Jail records show he was arrested on July 2 and released on July 3, the Associated Press reports.

Gillum, the first Black nominee of a major political party for governor in Florida, lost the 2018 election to current Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis in a highly contentious race.

Once considered a rising star in national politics, Gillum served in Tallahassee’s local government, first as a city commissioner and then as mayor of Florida’s capital from 2014- 2018.

The Daphne Police Department said officers stopped Gillum’s vehicle around 10:45 p.m. and initiated a probable cause search after one officer noticed a glass pipe on the center console.

During the search, officers found several rolled marijuana cigarettes and three packages containing a substance that tested positive for methamphetamine, police said.

The day after his arrest he was charged with possession of dangerous drugs, use or possession of drug paraphernalia, and possession of marijuana.

In 2020, Gillum was involved in a similar incident when he was found in a Miami Beach, Fla., hotel room with a man identified as an escort who had apparently overdosed on drugs. Police also found three bags of suspected crystal methamphetamine in the room. The man survived, and no one was ever charged with a crime.

Later that year, Gillum came out as bisexual during an appearance on “The Tamron Hall Show,” where he discussed his struggles with drug and alcohol addiction and his decision to seek treatment following the 2020 incident.

In the same interview he shed light onto this, saying his substance use was a byproduct of the emotional struggles he experienced after losing the 2018 gubernatorial race to DeSantis.

This is not the first time Gillum has faced legal scrutiny.

During his 2014 mayoral campaign, he faced allegations of misconduct after hiring private equity investor Adam Corey as his campaign treasurer, raising questions about a potential conflict of interest. However, the FBI ultimately concluded there was no conflict of interest.

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Pennsylvania

Philadelphia murder suspect remains at large

Two killed, one injured in attacks motivated by victims’ sexual orientation

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Jahylin Melchur, 21, is wanted in connection with three Philadelphia shootings, including two murders, who may have targeted his victims because they were gay. (Photos courtesy Philadelphia Police Department)

Police seek the public’s support in finding a suspect wanted in connection with three Philadelphia shootings, including two murders, who may have targeted his victims because they were gay. All three shootings took place near Hunting Park Recreation Center between May 29 and June 26.

The suspect is 21-year-old Jahylin Melchur, who has not been located by police and is not in police custody as of July 7. Police seek the public’s support in tracking down the suspect, whose image was captured on surveillance cameras. Previous reporting underlined that Melchur should be considered armed and dangerous.

Each of the victims was found partially clothed between 10 and 11 p.m.

On May 29, a 55-year-old in Juniata Park was found two miles from the rec center. The victim, who survived the encounter with critical injuries, said a man approached him and announced his intention to rob him, before shooting him in the elbow and torso.

Martin Higgins, 45, was pronounced dead on the bleachers of the rec center’s baseball field on June 20, suffering from a gunshot wound to the abdomen. Sharef Holman, 29, was found near the basketball courts on June 26, suffering from multiple gunshot wounds. He was transported to Temple University Hospital but died shortly thereafter.

Deputy Police Commissioner Frank Vanore declined to answer the Philadelphia Inquirer’s question regarding whether the victims may have met Melchur on a dating app, citing the ongoing investigation. Sources told the Philadelphia Inquirer that investigators are exploring this possibility

Although robbery may be at least part of the motive in the first shooting, other movies are unclear.

NBC10 reported that law enforcement sources told the station all three victims were targeted because they were gay, but the Philadelphia Police Department did not confirm this.

The Philadelphia Police Department replied to PGN’s questions with an email stating, “This remains a very active investigation, and investigators are looking at all aspects of the case, including underlying motivations for committing these crimes.

“At this point, we can confirm that Melchur is wanted for two homicides by shooting and one non-fatal shooting, all of which occurred in the Hunting Park area. 

“The investigation has not established that the victims were specifically targeted because of their sexual orientation.”

The Philadelphia Police Department is urging anyone with information to contact the Homicide Unit at 215-686-3334 or submit an anonymous tip by calling the PPD Tip Line at 215-686-TIPS (8477).

(This story is republished with permission of the Philadelphia Gay News.)

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