Key congressional races and the contest for the White House have become even tighter according to polling data released this week, as Republican campaigns, including former President Donald Trump’s team, targeted their opponents with $65 million in anti-LGBTQ and especially anti-trans attack ads.

With just 20 days until Nov. 5, Sean Meloy, vice president of political programs at the LGBTQ+ Victory Fund, spoke with the Washington Blade about how the GOP’s “despicable” paid media strategy is impacting races up and down the ballot.

“This is gonna be the most anti-LGBTQ [election] year probably since 2004, when it comes to presidential rhetoric,” Meloy said.

Many of the LGBTQ candidates supported by his organization are now contending with attacks against their very identities. Among them is incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin of the key swing state of Wisconsin, an out lesbian who made history with her elections to the House and then to the Senate — but is now, Meloy said, in the “fight of her life.”

Her reelection is critical for Democrats to retain their narrow majority in the Senate so Vice President Kamala Harris can effectuate her agenda if she wins the White House.

For most of the campaign, Baldwin has maintained a narrow lead over Republican challenger Eric Hovde, but the real estate and banking tycoon polled ahead of her for the first time in an internal survey whose findings were released over the weekend by the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Cook Political Report considers their race a toss-up.

“Tammy has done an amazing job fighting for all people in Wisconsin, whether it’s farmers, whether it’s laborers, and, of course, LGBTQ constituents, too,” Meloy said. “I don’t know how you get a better senator than Tammy Baldwin, and I’m not just saying that because she’s probably going to be — knock on wood — our only [out] LGBTQ voice in the U.S. Senate.”

Baldwin is not shaken by anti-LGBTQ attacks

The senator has “been the target of hundreds of millions of dollars in attacks, including these anti-LGBT, these anti-trans attacks,” but also of ads “talking about, you know, where she sleeps and who she sleeps with,” Meloy said — messages suffused with the kind of overt homophobia that for decades was considered out-of-bounds in electoral politics.

“The race has absolutely tightened,” Meloy said, and in response Hovde’s campaign is “deploying everything and the kitchen sink, including these anti-trans ads, including the attacks against [Baldwin] and her girlfriend.”

“Even though she was being attacked about her identity, she’s not running from who she is,” he said, pointing to the “wonderful story” she shared on X to honor National Coming Out Day on Friday.

Can I tell you my coming out story? 🏳️‍🌈

I first came out in college. Back then, I knew I was interested in public service, but I feared that I would face a serious choice between pursuing the field of my dreams or living my authentic life openly.

Watching others in the LGBTQ+… pic.twitter.com/6L4nmkdOde

— Tammy Baldwin (@tammybaldwin) October 11, 2024

“I think that that is exactly what people want in their congresspeople, what they want in their senators, what they want in their government,” Meloy said. “They want their government to look like the people they represent and people who aren’t going to put their finger in the wind just because tens of millions of dollars in ads are attacking them about who they are.”

Baldwin has “done the work, she’s proven herself, she’s built those relationships and helped make sure our community was represented in an amazing fashion, and that’s why so many folks are excited to support her.”

The next 20 days will prove critical, Meloy said, as the “Victory Fund is working with her campaign to make sure that she gets the resources that she needs in order to combat” the lies and bad-faith attacks from Hovde. He noted a recent rapid response call was organized to help Baldwin through the “anti-trans and anti-LGBTQ ads.”

Victory has “already raised over $300,000,” Meloy said, adding, “I wouldn’t be surprised if [Baldwin is] the candidate that we’ve raised the most for this year,” nor if the fundraising total for her 2024 campaign “is a record number, because she absolutely is in the fight of her life.”

Straight allies in close Senate races respond to anti-LGBTQ attacks

Other Democrats in close Senate races, like U.S. Rep. Colin Allred of Texas, who is running to unseat anti-LGBTQ U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, and U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, who is fending off a challenge from Republican businessman Bernie Moreno, have been targeted with anti-LGBTQ advertising, too.

The ads, riddled with falsehoods, focus primarily on the lawmakers’ support for allowing trans women and girls to compete on sports teams aligning with their gender identity.

In response, Allred cut a commercial in which he says, “I’m a dad. I’m also a Christian. My faith has taught me that all kids are god’s kids. So let me be clear. I don’t want boys playing girls sports, or any of this ridiculous stuff that Ted Cruz is saying.”

Brown’s team also responded to the attack with an ad in which the senator calls out misinformation and clarifies his stance — that the participation of trans athletes in competitive sports should be decided not by the government but by the individual leagues.

Meloy noted that Victory does not work with non-LGBTQ candidates, so he has limited insight into their campaign operations, but he stressed that while Allred and Brown were criticized by some LGBTQ advocates for appearing to signal a willingness to walk back their support for trans athletes, both have strong records of fighting to advance rights and protections for the community.

“I think that we know where their hearts are when it comes to believing in not discriminating,” Meloy said, and running against candidates like Cruz means having to dispel “a lot of misinformation, a lot of lies.”

In such circumstances, “sometimes, nuance is not going to be your friend,” he said, adding that the Republican “bigots” who are “using this rhetoric” to weaponize LGBTQ lives and identities in hopes of winning in November must be defeated.

“And then, we as a community need to make sure we hold their feet to the fire” to ensure the lawmakers reciprocate the support they received from their LGBTQ constituents — specifically, by passing the Equality Act, which would codify LGBTQ-inclusive nondiscrimination rules across the board, and by codifying into law protections for reproductive rights.

Anti-trans strategy will fail, but the most effective messages concern sports

“I think in the end, it’s going to prove not to work,” Meloy added, referring to the GOP’s strategy of “demonizing our community for political points.”

Echoing remarks from other LGBTQ leaders like Human Rights Campaign President Kelley Robinson, Meloy said the Republicans who leveraged anti-LGBTQ/anti-trans attacks in elections last year and in 2022 were mostly unsuccessful.

The strategy has “not been effective in winning swing districts, in winning battleground states, or even in conservative states,” he said. And “if these messages largely don’t work with independent voters,” Meloy asked, “who are they aimed at?”

Trump and other Republican candidates “are starting to bleed some of their base voters, and they need to continue to churn them out,” he said. So, with their transphobic rhetoric, the campaigns hope to get their right-wing supporters “foaming at the mouth again” while also reaching and engaging with the kind of disaffected men who are less likely to vote and who may admire anti-trans self-styled contrarians like Elon Musk.

The GOP’s strategy of using “trans lives to win votes” while “lying, all along the way, about those lives to do so” reeks of desperation, he said, while also inhibiting outreach to conservative or independent LGBTQ voters, to the extent that Republican campaigns ever sought to win over these voters in the first place.

At the same time, the New York Times reported last week that “Republican strategists said the focus on transgender women and girls in sports had been particularly effective with a key group of voters the party has hemorrhaged support from in recent years: college-educated suburban women.”

The conservative Wall Street Journal editorial board agreed, publishing an opinion piece on Sunday that was titled, “Transgender Sports Is a 2024 Sleeper Issue.”

“An ad in Wisconsin says Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin ‘voted to let biological men into women’s sports,'” the authors wrote, while “Hovde gets spontaneous applause when he raises the issue at campaign events.”

Meloy conceded Republicans will likely find more success with the sports issue relative to their other anti-trans messaging, but stressed that it remains “just the best of a bunch of bad narratives that don’t fully get the job done when it comes to moving folks in a purple district to 50+ one.”

He pointed to last year’s elections in the Virginia Legislature, which saw anti-LGBTQ messaging from Republicans, including attacks focused on the participation of trans athletes in competitive sports.

Nevertheless, Danica Roem won her bid for the state Senate, becoming the first openly trans official elected to serve in both chambers of a state legislature. Four of her Democratic colleagues who were targeted for their support of the trans community also won their races. And together, their victories helped to secure a Democratic pro-equality majority in the Virginia House of Delegates and the Virginia State Senate.

Harris might discuss trans athletes issue with Joe Rogan

The vice president is reportedly considering a sit-down with Joe Rogan, whose podcast boasts 17.3 million subscribers and is especially popular among young men.

Rogan has repeatedly inveighed against trans athletes participating in competitive sports. “It’s f—ing up women’s sports in a huge way,” he said last summer. “If you care at all about biological women, you should be against that.”

“Kamala Harris has proven to be a very strong ally of LGBTQ people and trans people,” Meloy said, “and so I think that she’s not going to be afraid to tell the truth there” if she chooses to do the podcast.

The Democratic nominee would be “going on there to show people that she’s not all what the right wing is making her out to be” with their attacks on her record, background, and identity.

The Trump campaign and his Republican supporters are lying about Harris just as they’re lying about trans people, Meloy said. “Her showing up, her being visible and saying, ‘Hey, I’m here. I’m actually wanting to do these things. Trans people are just trying to live their lives.’ I think that conversation will go really far in hopefully adjusting people’s mindsets from ‘oh, these these ads are saying one thing,’ when in reality they’re just not truthful.”

He added, “I’m very hopeful these tactics and Trumpism are repudiated so we can get back to a system, right? We can close that chapter. As Kamala Harris says, we can close this chapter in our history and get back to healthy and robust debate that is not based around who you are, but what ideas you have for the people. And I think the work is happening to help make sure that that kind of win happens.”

The campaign led by Harris and her vice presidential pick, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, is emblematic of that positive, forward-looking message, Meloy said. “So many Americans across every single demographic” are resonating with their focus on “freedom and protecting democracy and turning the chapter on this very, very difficult past eight years.”