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Valuing your home with the flip of a coin

Setting a price is one of Realtors’ toughest tasks

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home, gay news, Washington Blade
home, gay news, Washington Blade

As Realtors, we know that one of our most difficult tasks is pricing a home. That holds true whether we are representing a seller or a buyer.

One of the great evolutions in real estate over the last decade is the power of the Internet, and more than 90 percent of homebuyers begin their search there. We think that’s great, and buyers are more empowered than ever with loads of information. Some of that information can come from sites like Zillow that offer what’s called an “automated valuation model” – AVM for short – that purportedly presents a great estimate of the current market value of millions of homes.

It’s cool technology, amassing an enormous amount of information from publicly available sources in one place that is then scrubbed through very sophisticated algorithms to predict value. And all of that is presented in an easy-to-use user interface. And to their enormous credit, Zillow has done a tremendous job in reaching “top of mind” status with consumers. There’s just one problem: Those predicted values are wildly inaccurate and inconsistent.

As Realtors, we know that one of our most difficult tasks is pricing a home. That holds true whether we are representing a seller or a buyer. Market pressures change from week to week and from neighborhood to neighborhood. The motivation of the parties is always a factor, as is the condition of a home and those around it. No algorithm, however sophisticated, can quantify the value of a kitchen that was remodeled just before a home was put on the market or a yard that is poorly maintained. It simply isn’t possible for any AVM to predict the value of a home with a level of accuracy sufficient to make a housing decision. Zillow knows that’s true – and they say as much on their website (although you have to dig a bit to find it). They have this to say about their “zestimates” of value:

“The Zestimate is not an appraisal and you won’t be able to use it in place of an appraisal, though you can certainly share it with real estate professionals. It is a computer-generated estimate of the worth of a house today, given the available data. Zillow does not offer the Zestimate as the basis of any specific real-estate-related financial transaction. Our data sources may be incomplete or incorrect; also, we have not physically inspected a specific home. Remember, the Zestimate is a starting point and does not consider all the market intricacies that can determine the actual price a house will sell for.”

Yet not a week goes by that we don’t encounter a consumer who is fixated on a particular value for a home because that’s what Zillow says it is. Kudos to Zillow for making this kind of impression on the public – brilliant marketing.  But our research shows that, on average, those “zestimates” are within 5 percent of the actual value of a home just half of the time. (Funny, that’s what their research shows as well.)  As Realtors, if we got within 5 percent of the value of a home that infrequently we’d be out of business.

So if a consumer wants to base their valuation of a home purchase or sale on what they find on the Internet, we suggest they take out a coin and flip it. Heads – that value is within 5 percent (high or low) of what the home is actually worth. Tails – that value could be 10 percent, 20 percent or more off target.

 

How accurate are ‘Zestimates?’

 

A detailed analysis of 500 recent sales in Metro Washington, D.C.: Beginning in 2010, McEnearney Associates has examined the accuracy of the estimates for property values that Zillow provides – their “zestimates” of value. This marks our fourth and most comprehensive analysis.

We took 500 properties in MRIS, our regional multiple listing system, that were scheduled to settle between March 24 and March 31, 2014. During that week, we looked for the zestimates of those 500 properties. Once the properties settled, we compared the actual sold price to the predicted values on Zillow. And to be as fair as possible, we excluded new home sales from our research because it is highly unlikely that Zillow would have details of the home to be built.

To provide some context, we compared the results of the March 2014 research to that of our September 2012 research. In 2012, we researched 280 properties, and we were able to find a zestimate for all 280. In the research we just concluded, we were able to find values for all but two of the 500 properties.

Generally, Zillow’s predicted market value is not any better now than it was 18 months ago. The zestimate is within 5 percent of the actual sales price roughly half the time. In September 2012, the zestimate was just as likely to be too low as too high; now, it is roughly twice as likely to be too low.

As one might expect with a computer-generated value, there are always “outliers.” In September 2012, of the 280 zestimates, the highest was roughly 140 percent of the actual sales prices. The lowest was 82 percent. In the research we just concluded, the highest predicted value was 256 percent of the actual sales price and the lowest was 62.8 percent.

There are significant geographic differences in Zillow’s performance in our current research. They get within 5 percent of the actual sales price just over a third of the time for properties in Washington, DC, and within 10 percent of the sales price less than 60 percent of the time.  They are within 5 percent of sales price 43 percent of the time in Maryland and almost 60 percent in Virginia.

Zillow is a bit less accurate for condo and coops than for attached or detached homes.  Mirroring the overall results, in all three property types Zillow is at least twice as likely to predict a value that is at least 5 percent lower than the actual value as predicting 5 percent high.

Not surprisingly, those properties that sold for $1,000,000 and more were a little tougher for Zillow to estimate accurately. They got within 5 percent of the actual price just over one third of the time. They fared much better for homes selling between $500,000 and $999,999, getting within 5 percent almost 60 percent of the time, but for homes selling for less than $500,000 they were within 5 percent less than half the time.

David Howell is executive vice president and chief information officer for McEnearney Associates. He is responsible for the firm’s technology, market information and public relations. He is also principal broker for McEnearney Associates in Maryland, and is an associate broker in Virginia and D.C.

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Real Estate

When buying a home, it’s decisions, decisions, decisions

Keeping notes on the process makes for an informed purchase

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If you’re buying a home, take careful notes throughout the process. (Photo by Andy Dean Photography/Bigstock)

When looking to buy a home, there are lots of details to consider. Many of my clients would come to me and say, “Joe I want to buy a place, but I haven’t decided which neighborhood to buy in.” And the struggle was real. A few clients had everything decided from the color of the hallway walls to the cabinet handles and sometimes which three square blocks they wanted to look at. 

But other clients were occasionally looking at properties in areas as distinct as Union Market/NOMA, Brookland, Logan Circle, and then we would even go across the river to look at a property in Shirlington or the Van Dorn areas of Virginia, which all have their own unique flavor and characteristics.

Sometimes clients would tell me, “I only want to look in Mount Pleasant or Adams Morgan.” Or, “don’t even show me any properties west of this street or south of that street.” My job wasn’t to convince people where to live. It was to just take the parameters they set for me and find as good of a property in that zone as I could, coordinate the showings and, if necessary, offer the strategy.  

One can see that buyers often had more decisions to make than a seller. From a seller’s perspective, the house was where it was, and we just had to make the best of it. But working with a buyer could mean looking at five different neighborhoods, and then being a “thought partner” to help them figure out which were the top two or three areas they had seen, and then further distilling those down into what was available and weighing those options against each other. 

One house could have the dream bathroom but also be located six blocks further from a Metro stop, walkable shopping and dining, and “just too far away from my friends.” Another house could have all the neighborhood options a client was looking for, but was just not in turnkey condition, and would require an additional $30,000 of upgrades once purchased to make it into the dream home they envisioned.  

One activity I often asked buyers to do was to keep an active list in their heads of the properties they liked, and to keep a running rank of the top three. I often encouraged them to bring a notebook along on the journey where they could take notes and write down questions they thought of as they looked. It was an important decision, and sometimes the largest purchase of their lives. Why not take it a little seriously, and take notes? This could often help the buyer later when they felt it was time to decide.  

The point here is, keeping a notebook handy can sometimes help a person with what feels like an overwhelming process. It provides a space to explore how one feels, jot down important details to remember, and then use that to make an informed decision.  


Joseph Hudson is a referral agent with RLAH. Reach him at 703-587-0597 or [email protected].

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Under-the-radar Delaware beach towns smart buyers are targeting

There are other options if Rehoboth prices are scaring you off

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If you want to escape the crowds and nightlife scene of Rehoboth Beach, Sussex County offers plenty of options. (Blade file photo by Daniel Truitt)

Look, we love Rehoboth. We will always love Rehoboth. Queer folks have been flocking there since the 1940s, and with scores of LGBTQ-owned businesses and a Pride calendar packed tighter than the boardwalk in July, “Rehomo” earned its crown fair and square.

But let’s be honest with each other: trying to buy property there right now feels a lot like trying to get a reservation at the one good restaurant in town on a Saturday in August. Everyone wants in, inventory is tighter than your swim trunks after Labor Day brunch, and the prices have officially entered “are you kidding me” territory.

So here’s a thought: What if you didn’t fight the crowd? What if, instead, you let Rehoboth keep doing its glorious, chaotic, glitter-bomb thing and you quietly built your beach life 15 minutes away for considerably less drama and considerably more square footage? Here are four towns ready for their close-up.

Lewes: The Charming Overachiever

Lewes is what happens when a beach town actually has its life together. Historic charm, walkability, proximity to Cape Henlopen State Park, less crowding, and a strong year-round community. Unlike towns that turn into ghost towns after Labor Day, Lewes maintains a real community all year long, which is more than we can say for some situationships.

And right now, the market is practically begging you to make a move. It’s one of the most desirable and stable markets in the county — built for buyers thinking long-term, not flippers, and Sussex County overall has flipped into genuine buyer’s market territory for the first time in years. Translation: you finally get to be the one with leverage. 

Bethany Beach: My Personal Pick

Full disclosure: I own in Bethany. So consider this section a little biased — and also the most honest thing I’ll tell you in this whole article.

When I drive down from D.C., I’m not looking for more of D.C. I love this city, but I also love leaving it — and yes, some of the people in it too (you know who you are, and so do I). Bethany gives me that full exhale. It’s quiet in the way that actually means something: fewer crowds, slower mornings, a soundtrack that’s mostly waves instead of nightlife. It leans hard into its “quiet resort” reputation, with low property taxes and a limited geographic footprint, and it is not the least bit sorry about it. 

But quiet doesn’t mean isolated. I’ve got a genuinely excellent food scene nearby, real shopping, and a string of charming neighboring beach towns — and when I do want a taste of Rehoboth’s energy, it’s a short, easy drive away. I get to choose my dose of chaos instead of living inside it.

And here’s the part that matters most for this article: the price. If you’ve looked at Rehoboth listings and quietly closed the tab in despair, I need you to hear this — you can absolutely afford a beach house. It just doesn’t have to be in Rehoboth. Bethany’s average home value sits around $848,592, which is still real money, no question — but it buys you more house, more land, and more peace than the same budget gets you closer to the boardwalk. Bethany is welcoming too, just without Rehoboth’s decades of built-in queer institutional history — and for plenty of us, that trade-off is more than worth it. 

Fenwick Island: Small Town, Big Flex

Fenwick rarely gets mentioned and, frankly, it should be insulted. It’s tiny, it’s quiet, and it has beach access without the carnival energy. The market data tends to lump it in with Bethany, where single-family oceanfront homes clear $1 million while entry-level condos start in the $600s — proof that “under-the-radar” doesn’t mean “bargain bin,” it means “fewer people fighting you for it.” 

South Bethany: For the Boat Gays

Some of us want sand between our toes. Others want a private dock and a boat named something deeply unserious. South Bethany’s canal communities are built for the latter — water access on both sides, fewer crowds, and a lifestyle that says, “I have a captain’s hat and I am not afraid to wear it.”

The Math Works in Your Favor Now

Here’s the part that should really get your attention: Sussex County’s median sold price has dropped to $440,000, down 3.3% year-over-year, and buyers are routinely closing around 88 cents on the dollar compared to asking price. That’s a far cry from the unhinged bidding wars of 2021 and 2022, when overpaying was basically a competitive sport. Inventory across the county sits at nearly 2,500 active listings — the most of any county in Delaware, meaning you actually get to be picky for once. Revolutionary, we know. 

And no, choosing one of these towns doesn’t mean leaving your people behind. Sussex Pride serves the entire county, not just Rehoboth proper, and CAMP Rehoboth’s resources extend well beyond town limits too. You’re not exiling yourself to the suburbs of queerness — you’re just getting a bigger kitchen, a quieter porch, and a much shorter line for the bathroom. 

Add in the fact that Delaware has no estate tax and some of the lowest property taxes around, savings that genuinely add up over a retirement horizon, and the case writes itself. Rehoboth will always be the beating, sequined heart of queer beach culture in Delaware. But if you’ve been telling yourself a beach house isn’t in the cards — I’m here to tell you it absolutely is. It just might be 15 minutes south, with your own quiet porch, your own salt air, and considerably more room to breathe. 

Have a real estate question or Rehoboth market tip? Reach out to [email protected] for LGBTQ-friendly real estate resources in the Rehoboth area.


Justin Noble is a Realtor licensed in D.C., Maryland, and Delaware with Monument Sotheby’s International Realty. Reach him at [email protected] or 302-897-7499.

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‘Culture eats strategy for breakfast’

Real estate agents must adapt, learn how to manage from within

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A real estate agent is contractually bound to act on their client’s behalf. (Photo by Andy Dean Photography/Bigstock)

“Culture Eats Strategy for Breakfast” was a phrase often repeated in many of my management courses from the University of Illinois. The concept was discussed at length – how the best laid plans can sometimes be supported or derailed by the culture of the people involved in whichever project to be implemented. Whether it be a project to implement new software, roll out a new product or service, or just reaching a sales target, the way the team involved works together can indeed affect the outcome.  

Perhaps this is just another way to say, “teamwork makes the dream work!” Most teams usually have someone who is designated as a leader. The leader can try to lead through authority and control or can alternatively try to lead through influence and encouraging a more collective framework for solving problems.  

Why does this matter when picking the right real estate agent or team to work with? Besides having a job as a salesperson for the brokerage, the real estate agent is contractually bound to act on their client’s behalf. The buyer broker agreement is in place so that the agent and the client can work together as a team in communications regarding offer strategy, during negotiations, implementing marketing plans, as well as selecting which renovations or upgrades to choose before selling a property.  After the property goes under contract, the job isn’t “done”.  There is still work to do.  

At this point, the agents then turn into a project manager of sorts – coordinating communications between the lending team, the title attorneys, the other client’s agents, any governmental agencies that could be involved in down payment assistance or helping to clear a property for a sale, and often times groups like a condo board, a home inspector, or contractors when arranging repairs and estimates before a final walk through. 

In short, the agent takes on somewhat of a “leadership role” in the transaction and ensures that all the ducks stay in a row until the project is complete.  That agent will hopefully be very fluid and forthcoming with their information, copying the required parties on all communications and creating a “paper trail” of who said what or didn’t offer to fix A, B, or C, so that all the minutiae of the contract can be addressed and fulfilled before the settlement date.  The agent often must wear many hats and quickly learn the communication styles of an entire new set of people in a short period.  One person may not return calls for a week after being contacted.  Another person may go on vacation at the beginning of the process and not return emails for two weeks.  Another person may wish to have daily updates of the progress of the process. 

In this way – an agent quickly learns in each transaction that “culture can eat strategy for breakfast.” Because the agent must adapt to a wide variety of communication styles, learn how to “manage from within”, build support for closing the project by the due date, and somehow keep all the interested parties invested, engaged, and responsive.  

Who you work with matters when picking the right person to represent you in your next transaction – so, just remember that “teamwork makes the dream work!”


Joseph Hudson is a referral agent with RLAH. Reach him at 703-587-0597 or [email protected].

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