Although 2013 will be a tough act to follow in terms of achievements for the LGBT community, some advocates say significant new battles and potential victories are on the horizon for 2014.
Additional court rulings on marriage and the upcoming Olympic Games in Sochi will attract attention, but the focus will also be on the lead-up to the mid-term elections in November 2014. Voters are expected to decide the issue of marriage equality at the ballot and make decisions in candidate elections that would shape LGBT rights in the future.
Next month, all eyes will be on the Winter Olympics to see what impact gay athletes coming to compete in Sochi, Russia, might have on the anti-gay laws there, including the now notorious law prohibiting pro-gay propaganda. The Olympics will be held between Feb. 6 and 23.
It remains to be seen whether any of the athletes who’ll compete in the games — or any of the three openly gay members of the U.S. delegation to the Olympics — will speak out against the anti-gay policies, and whether the Russian government will subject them to punishment under the propaganda law for doing so.
In terms of the advancement of marriage equality, no one is predicting movement in the state legislatures as seen in 2013, but action is expected at the ballot and as a result of numerous court cases filed throughout the country.
In Oregon, activists are preparing for a campaign to legalize same-sex marriage at the ballot. They’re already touting 118,176 signatures, which is more than 116,284 needed by July 3 to place the measure before voters. Success at the ballot would mean Oregon would become the first state in the country to overturn a state constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage through a ballot initiative.
Another effort is underway in Ohio, where the group Freedom Ohio is touting a new poll showing 56 percent of Ohio residents support marriage equality as part of an effort to place a measure on the ballot in 2014. National LGBT groups, however, aren’t behind this endeavor and reportedly have said 2014 isn’t the year to bring marriage equality to the ballot in Ohio.
But 2014 may also see the return of state constitutional amendments at the ballot banning same-sex marriage. Opponents of same-sex marriage in Indiana are seeking a vote in the legislature on such an amendment, which would bring the issue before voters in the 2014 election.
It’s possible that a similar amendment may appear on the 2014 ballot in New Mexico, where anti-gay lawmakers unhappy with the state Supreme Court’s recent decision to legalize same-sex marriage have threatened to take action. However, the legislature needs to approve the amendment before it goes to voters, which is unlikely because Democrats control both the House and Senate.
Amid efforts to place the marriage issue on the ballot, courts may issue rulings in favor of marriage equality in any of the at least 23 states with pending marriage litigation. Such rulings could happen in Michigan, where a trial on the ban same-sex marriage has been set for February, or in Pennsylvania. A federal court in West Virginia may respond to a request for summary judgment filed Tuesday by Lambda Legal on behalf on same-sex couples seeking to wed in the state.
For the first time since the Supreme Court ruling against the Defense of Marriage Act, federal appeals courts will also take up the issue of marriage equality. The U.S. Tenth Circuit Court of Appeals will review the marriage lawsuit in which U.S. District Judge Robert Shelby recently instituted marriage equality in Utah, and the U.S. Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals will review Nevada’s ban on same-sex marriage in the case known as Sevcik v. Sandoval.
It’s possible that rulings at the appellate level could send the issue of marriage equality back to the Supreme Court as soon as next year.
Marc Solomon, national campaign director for Freedom to Marry, said the endeavors to advance marriage equality in 2014 will foster a better climate for the Supreme Court to make a “national resolution” in favor of marriage equality.
“We really don’t know, and nobody knows, which case is going to be that case that gets to the Supreme Court, when it’s going to happen, if it’s going to happen next year, if it’s going to happen in five years,” Solomon said. “Basically, we are full-steam ahead with what we call our ‘Roadmap to Victory’ to win more states, grow public support, get more unexpected allies, and demonstrate that the country is completely ready.”
Solomon said his organization also plans to participate in public education campaigns in Arizona, Ohio, Michigan, Colorado and Nevada in anticipation of going to the ballot to win marriage equality in 2016 in addition to a similar campaign in Pennsylvania to foster a climate for a court ruling in favor of marriage equality in the Keystone State.
Advancement of pro-LGBT federal legislation may also take place, although the chances such legislation will reach President Obama’s desk are low — to say the least — because Republicans control the House.
Supporters of the Employment Non-Discrimination Act are pushing for a vote in the Republican-controlled chamber following a bipartisan vote in the Senate in favor of the legislation. Although the legislation has 201 sponsors in a chamber where 218 votes are needed for passage, House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) has repeatedly said he opposes the legislation when asked if he’ll bring up the bill for a vote.
Issues for married same-sex couples in the aftermath of the U.S. Supreme Court decision striking down Section 3 of the Defense of Marriage Act are also expected to surface. Senate Judiciary Committee Chair Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) has pledged to hold a hearing on these outstanding issues.
Among them is the Social Security Administration’s continued hold on benefits claims for married same-sex couples in non-marriage equality states. Passage of the Respect for Marriage Act would address these issues by ensuring married same-sex couples would be able to receive federal benefits wherever they move in the country.
The Senate early this year may also take up a version of No Child Left Behind reauthorization — reported out on a party-line basis in June by the Senate Health, Education, Labor & Pensions Committee — that contains anti-bullying provisions along the lines of the Student Non-Discrimination Act and the Safe Schools Improvement Act.
Rea Carey, executive director of the National Gay & Lesbian Task Force, said the successes of 2013 are “much to celebrate,” but said they also highlight more work is necessary at the federal level — not just on LGBT-specific issues, but other areas like immigration reform and restoration of the Voting Rights Act.
“Every victory we achieve makes clearer the inequalities that remain — the painful gap between progress and true freedom,” Carey said. “That’s why we need the House to pass the Employment Non-Discrimination Act; fair immigration reform legislation; and to restore the heart of the Voting Rights Act, so unceremoniously gutted by the Supreme Court this past year. We must win on these issues in 2014; we can win on these issues in 2014.”
Meanwhile, campaigns are ramping up for elections in 2014. For the first time ever, at least two openly gay candidates may appear as gubernatorial candidates representing a major party.
In Maryland, lesbian Del. Heather Mizeur is running against two other candidates in a bid for the Democratic nomination for governor. Her primary is June 24.
And in Maine, Rep. Mike Michaud (D-Maine), who came out as gay in 2013, is seeking to oust Republican Gov. Paul LePage. Michaud is the only declared candidate on the Democratic side.
In Congress, six openly LGB members of the U.S. House will be seeking to retain their seats. Those running in moderate districts who may face more challenging re-election bids are Reps. Mark Takano (D-Calif.), Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.).
Sean Eldridge, an entrepreneur known for his work advocating for marriage equality in New York and also known for being married to Facebook co-founder Chris Hughes, is seeking to unseat incumbent Republican Chris Gibson to represent New York’s 19th congressional district.
Other gay newcomers are on the Republican side. Former Massachusetts State Sen. Richard Tisei, who narrowly lost a challenge to Rep. John Tierney (D-Mass.) in 2012, is considering a rematch in 2014.
Former San Diego City Council member Carl DeMaio is seeking to represent the San Diego area in the U.S. House and University of New Hampshire administrator Dan Innis has launched a bid to unseat Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-N.H.).
Despite openly gay candidates on the Republican side, LGBT advocates will likely also work for Democratic majorities in Congress — achieving it in the House and preserving it in the Senate — to foster a better climate for passing pro-LGBT legislation.
That may be an uphill battle. A recent survey from CNN/ORC International shows Republicans have increased their edge in the race for control of Congress. Republicans lead Democrats by 49 percent to 44 percent among registered voters asked to pick between unnamed candidates from each party in their district. That’s up from a smaller two-point edge in favor of Republicans last month.
Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, said he doesn’t think the House will be in play given the abysmal state of President Obama’s polling numbers, and Republicans have a strong chance of winning the Senate.
“The Senate definitely is up for grabs,” Rothenberg said. “It’s probably close to 50-50 that Republicans will net the six seats that they will need to get to 51 seats. But there is plenty of time for events to occur that could change the current outlook.”
Whatever happens in Congress, LGBT advocates pledge to work at all levels of the government — federal, state and local — to continue to advance rights for the LGBT community.
Fred Sainz, the Human Rights Campaign’s vice president of communications, said 2014 will present “tremendous opportunities” for the LGBT community in the aftermath of 2013′s victories.
“We will continue to advance all measures of equality in the states, most importantly non-discrimination laws that affect the greatest number of LGBT people,” Sainz said. “And federally, we will continue to grow support for ENDA toward its eventual passage — as well as other bills that are part of our legislative agenda.”