December 9, 2016 at 11:47 am EST | by Allison Goodhart DuShuttle
How will Trump impact real estate market?
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The full impact of the Donald Trump administration remains unknown, but a reduction in the federal workforce would certainly hurt the D.C. market. (Washington Blade photo by Michael Key)

It’s now been a month since the election and the dust has (mostly) settled. So, everyone is asking, what impact will the new administration have on the market? Our answer? It depends who you talk to.

Much of the impact of the election and change in administration is based on emotion and consumers’ reactions to the election and its results. This is one of the only factors we have been able to measure thus far. In typical Washington fashion, we’ve had calls from clients on both sides of the aisle, with very mixed reviews.

While it’s too soon to tell, so far we’ve noticed no discernible change in the market or with most of our current clients. Emotions seem to have leveled off since those first few days and we anticipate they will continue to do so as time goes on.

The only major change so far: Interest rates are on the rise.

The major tangible change we have experienced has been a notable increase in interest rates. Don’t worry, it’s not time to panic. For the last few years, rates have been at truly historic lows, so we have been anticipating a rise in rates. We are inclined to think rates will continue to rise, but at a slow pace. That being said, if you’re thinking about a move sometime in the near future, now might be the time to act.

Where do we go from here?

Before the election, we anticipated a slower market in the lead-up to it and an active late fall market. In reality, we saw this year track pretty evenly with other years in terms of business in the fall market. If anything, it may have been slower in the late summer months and a bit busier than usual in the final month prior to the election. We’ll see what December brings.

Our prediction for the New Year is similar. Despite all of the media coverage around the election and administration change, we don’t anticipate any major changes. We do expect some possible growing pains as our area decides how quickly change might come to Washington — and what that change might mean for them. Democrats may be a little more pessimistic about the economy while Republicans may be a little more optimistic. This is Washington, so that is nothing new.

Here’s what to look out for in monitoring where we go from here: The biggest threat to our local market is a potential major reduction in the federal workforce, or another government shutdown. If that doesn’t come to pass, there shouldn’t be any major impact from the election or the new administration on our housing market or local economy. If the promised tax breaks do come into effect, we might even see a small surge in the market as paychecks feel larger and the monthly budget inflates. The change in interest rates is something to watch, though a slow rise likely won’t do much to change the market.

Stay tuned! We will continue to monitor the market to let you know if anything changes. In the meantime, it’s business as usual.

 

Allison Goodhart DuShuttle is lead agent for The Goodhart Group, Alexandria’s and McEnearney Associates’ top producing real estate team. In 2015, she was nationally recognized by Realtor Magazine, being named to its “30 Under 30” club. Reach her at 703-362-3221 or allison@thegoodhartgroup.com

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