Virginia will hold elections on Nov. 4 for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, and the House of Delegates. A “moral opposition” to marriage equality and anti-transgender advertisements, among other things, have shaped current polling numbers and the election’s relevance to LGBTQ voters.

With one week before election day, Democrats may face a split ticket result, considering former state Del. Jay Jones’s text message scandal that shook up the attorney general race.

Governor: Abigail Spanberger v. Winsome Earle-Sears

Democratic former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears are competing for the governor’s office. Spanberger leads Earle-Sears by seven points among Virginia’s likely voters, according to an Oct. 27 poll by Christian Newsport University.

Earle-Sears declared during the gubernatorial debate that opposing marriage equality and employment protections for the LGBTQ community is “not discrimination.” The candidate also holds a “moral opposition” to marriage equality.

Spanberger, supported by former President Barack Obama and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, holds a record of supporting LGBTQ rights, specifically in co-sponsoring the Equality Act, which would enshrine non-discrimination protections for LGBTQ people in federal law.

An ad from Restoration of America PAC, a collection of conservative groups, describes Spanberger “as extreme as it gets” because of her stance on trans rights.

Lieutenant governor: Ghazala Hashmi v. John Reid

State Sen. Ghazala Hashmi holds a two point lead against Republican John Reid, according to the CNU poll. The Democrat’s advantage narrowed from a previous 48-39 percent lead.

Reid, a conservative talk show host, is the first openly gay person nominated for a Virginian statewide office. The candidate, however, denies the existence of trans people on his campaign website and has pledged to vote against a constitutional amendment that would protect marriage equality in Virginia.

Reid earlier in the campaign faced calls from Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who Virginia law prevents from running for a consecutive term, and others to drop out after pornographic images he allegedly posted on social media emerged.

Hashmi’s record includes supporting marriage equality protections and sponsoring a bill to protect doctors who provide gender-affirming healthcare to patients who don’t live in Virginia.

Attorney general: Jay Jones v. Jason Miyares

Incumbent Republican Jason Miyares holds a one point lead against Jones, according to the CNU poll conducted after the text message scandal. The National Review earlier this month published screenshots of Jones texting a colleague about a scenario in which he shot former Virginia House Speaker Todd Gilbert, a Republican.

The publication of the August 2022 conversation led to President Donald Trump demanding Jones to drop out of the race, Spanberger expressing “disgust” toward him, and Earle-Sears encouraging voters to “reject the insanity.”

Jones still holds 91 percent support among Democrats, although the number is a drop from a previous CNU poll that found 96 percent of Democrats backed him.

House of Delegates

All 100 Virginia House of Delegates seats are on the ballot. The CNU poll finds that, upon asking likely voters the party for which they intend to vote, Democrats hold an eight point lead over Republican candidates.

The LGBTQ+ Victory Fund, a political action committee seeking to increase LGBTQ political power, has endorsed eight House candidates: State Dels. Rozia Henson (D-Prince William County), Laura Jane Cohen (D-Fairfax County), Joshua Cole (D-Fredericksburg), Marcia Price (D-Newport News), Adele McClure (D-Arlington County), and Mark Sickles (D-Fairfax County) and Lindsey Dougherty and Risë Hayes.

Dougherty and Hayes are both challenging Republican incumbents in District 75 and 52, respectively.

Victory Fund President Evan Low said LGBTQ representation is “about improving lives and sharing critical lived experiences.”

“In this time when LGBTQ+ identity is under attack, we are proud to have a strong, powerful coalition of delegates on the ballot this November,” Low said.

Daniel Hernández, the organization’s vice president of political programs, added state legislatures offer a more “direct and tangible” pathway to change.

“To know that LGBTQ+ Victory Fund is working alongside this amazing slate of candidates working to grow our LGBTQ+ caucus in the Virginia House of Delegates, with several incumbents up for reelection, shows the power and impact of LGBTQ+ representation and how it’s working for Virginians,” Hernández said.

Narissa Rahaman is the executive director of Equality Virginia Advocates, the advocacy branch of Equality Virginia, a statewide LGBTQ advocacy group.

Rahaman said the candidates elected on Nov. 4 will dictate the progress of LGBTQ rights and amending the state constitution to protect marriage equality, reproductive freedom, and voting rights.

“As national guards are mobilized into neighboring states and cities, as communities are disrupted by increasingly militant ICE raids, as federal funding is used to threaten public education and healthcare institutions into submission, Virginia’s greatest hope of fighting back in the coming years will be ensuring we elect pro-equality candidates to the House of Delegates and statewide offices,” Rahaman said.