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The predictable predictability of the Oscars

Favoring middle-of-the-road prestige over edgier fare

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It’s hard to write a reaction piece about the Oscars when you recognize that the Oscars, by their very nature, are essentially a poll – or perhaps, more aptly, a popularity contest – which reflects an aggregate of personal opinions, and therefore have as much to do with internal Hollywood politics as with rewarding artistic excellence.

I’m not saying that the movies and people being celebrated on the stage at the Dolby Theater in Hollywood Sunday night – all of them, winners and nominees alike – didn’t deserve to be there; on the contrary, 2023 was an outstanding year for cinema, and every one of the contenders could be considered worthy of taking the prize. If that’s the case, however, how can any of these outcomes be determined without the influence of personal taste? Making movies is not like playing sports, where a win results from the highest number of points scored and goals blocked; there is no such handily objective criteria to rely on in picking an actor, a screenwriter, or an entire film to proclaim as the “best” in its respective category, and it’s inevitable that Academy voters will be influenced by personal bias when they make their choices on that final ballot.

While Sunday’s 96th annual Oscar ceremony, which offered the usual snubs and oversights and no real surprises, might have disappointed me or even occasionally sparked a glimmer of outrage, I cannot fairly say that any of the final results were “mistakes.” And though it may be oversimplifying things to say that being offended by the Academy’s final choices is akin to being angry that someone else’s favorite flavor of ice cream is chocolate when yours is salted caramel praline, it’s still enough to convince me that my “reaction” piece to the Academy Awards can really only ever be an “opinion” piece,

With that in mind, here we go.

The presentation itself was the usual blend of witty repartee (mostly provided with success by veteran Oscar host Jimmy Kimmel, though attempts at it from the various presenters ran the gamut from delightful to disastrous), musical performances (Billie Eilish and brother Finneas O’Connell’s rendition of “What Was I Made For?”, which went on to win the evening’s only award for “Barbie”, was a particular highlight, alongside the more lavish and deliciously amusing dance production number headed by Supporting Actor nominee Ryan Gosling for “I’m Just Ken” from the same film), uplifting moments (a regal Rita Moreno’s benedictory introduction of “Barbie” Supporting Actress nominee America Ferrera brought tears to my eyes, and I suspect I wasn’t alone), and show-stopping surprises (John Cena’s teasingly faux nudity presenting the Best Costume Design award was a memorable stunt, to put it mildly, as was the combination of Arnold Schwarzenegger and Danny DeVito to do the honors in the Visual Effects and Film Editing categories) – yet it also had more than its fair share of embarrassing gaffes, such as upstaging the “In Memoriam” segment with an overblown production number accompanied by father-and-son operatic crooners Andrea and Matteo Bocelli’s duet of “Con tu partirò”, a move that has fueled perhaps more post-Oscars outrage than anything else from this year’s ceremony.

As for the politics, there were the expected barbs making fun of easy conservative targets, but most of the speeches avoided invoking too much progressive fury. The one overtly political moment came with the win of UK director Jonathan Glazer’s “The Zone of Interest” for Best International Feature, when he read, in prayerlike monotone, a pre-prepared statement warning against the dehumanizing hate depicted in his slice-of-Nazi-life historical drama and calling for empathy for the targets of such hate on both sides of the current crisis in Gaza. It was met with backlash, of course, especially after a partial quote in Variety omitted key elements of the speech and led many to believe the Jewish filmmaker was refuting his own religion.

As for the winners of the awards themselves (you can find the full list on the Oscar website) the evening’s choices fell more or less in line with my predictions – though not necessarily my preferences. 

The domination of “Oppenheimer” in most of the major categories in which it competed was, for anyone following the pre-ceremony buzz, a foregone conclusion. Few doubted that Cillian Murphy would handily claim the Best Actor prize – thwarting nominee Colman Domingo (“Rustin”) from becoming the first queer actor to win for playing a queer character in the process – or that Christopher Nolan would take the Best Director category, and from there the win for Best Picture felt as inevitable as anything can be at the Oscars.

Equally inevitable was the evening’s most easily predicted “Oppenheimer” win, as veteran Hollywood player Robert Downey, Jr. ebulliently swaggered onstage amid the enthusiastic familial cheers of his peers to claim the Best Supporting Actor prize; his acceptance speech, in which he self-deprecatingly recalled the legal and professional obstacles arising from the substance abuse that nearly derailed his early career, became a testament to overcoming personal setbacks to achieve an even higher success, something that resonated in the words of several other of the evening’s winners.

In the categories where “Oppenheimer” didn’t win, the odds were already in favor of the eventual victors, such as first-time filmmaker Cord Jefferson, whose “American Fiction” earned him the Best Adapted Screenplay Award over fellow front runners like “Barbie” and “Poor Things,” and Da’Vine Joy Randolph, whose winning Supporting Actress turn in “The Holdovers” had been a juggernaut throughout the award season.

Many Oscar fans, though most accepted the predestination of “Oppenheimer” as the year’s big winner, might rather have seen a different candidate come out on top (my own choice, for what it’s worth, would have been “Barbie,” with “Poor Things” and “Zone of Interest” coming up close behind); but even if Nolan’s weighty and technically dazzling biopic was unquestionably a fine film, exploring a deeply disturbing slice of not-too-distant history that still casts a long existential shadow over our world today, it’s impossible for me not to see in its multiple wins an all-too-familiar pattern of “safe” choices.

While “Oppenheimer” might pique ethical discussions over its title character’s choice to build the atomic bomb, few would find controversy in the idea that the destruction unleashed on the world by that choice is a reason for concern. Its most viable competitors, “Barbie” and “Poor Things” – both of which touched on many of the same existential themes, albeit from a markedly different direction and in a more absurdist style – each stirred divisive opinions around (among other things) a perceived feminist agenda; other highly-acclaimed titles in the running, like the non-English language entries “Zone”, “Past Lives”, and “Anatomy of a Fall”, fell outside the comfortable domestic audience mainstream where Oscar’s favorite picks are usually a little too deeply-rooted to allow much opportunity for a dark horse upset. While not many expected Bradley Cooper’s ambitious Bernstein biopic “Maestro” to take home any awards, it was considerably more noteworthy that Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon,” nominated for 10 Awards and widely lauded as one of the year’s most essential films, failed to score a single one of them – though I can’t help also noting that it deals with one of most shameful threads in our American past, inevitably making it a controversial movie for an era marked by deeply divided ideologies around that subject.

It’s perhaps for that reason that “Flower Moon” was not considered a front runner in most of its categories, but there was one in which it was seen as a heavy favorite. With Lily Gladstone poised to become the first Indigenous performer to win the Best Actress trophy, the odds leading up to Sunday’s presentation seemed to position them as the front runner; in the end, however, it was Emma Stone’s tour-de-force in “Poor Things” – in which she appeared in virtually every scene, in contrast to Gladstone’s relatively limited screen – that took it instead. Though it wasn’t quite a surprise, given the number of wins Stone has garnered already for the film, which also took home the prizes for Best Makeup and Hairstyling and Best Production Design, it nevertheless felt – to me, at least – like another example of Oscar’s predictable reluctance to court controversy with its choices.

Ironically, but not surprisingly, this conservative approach often just ends up causing a controversy of its own, and this case is no exception. Though I had championed Stone’s brilliant performance as the obvious winner, when her name was announced I found myself feeling disappointment over Goldstone’s loss, even as I was thrilled for Stone’s well-earned victory. After all, in a contest where the outcome is entirely subjective, Academy voters could have chosen to amplify the excellence of someone from within a marginalized community. Stone, who seemed as surprised at her win as anyone else, did remarkable work, but so did Gladstone; though it truly is “an honor just to be nominated,” it was an opportunity for Oscar to take a step toward correcting a long-ignored injustice at a time when doing so could make a demonstrably constructive impact on our culture and our society at a time when doing so would have a tremendous cultural impact, and it didn’t happen. It was a moment that struck me with an odd sense of disappointment even as I cheered for Stone; a bit of the sour within the sweet.

That, aside from a sense of missed opportunity over the evening’s consistent pattern of favoring the middle-of-the-road prestige represented by “Oppenheimer” over the edgier, more confrontational material presented by some of the other titles on the slate, was my biggest takeaway from the Academy Awards. Though I can’t say that any of the winners were unworthy, I can’t help thinking that their victories were somewhat tainted by the virtual shutout of “Barbie”, (which still feels to me like a message for female filmmakers to “stay in their lane”) and relatively low showing for “Poor Things” (which took only 3 of the 11 awards for which it was nominated), and that their underappreciation for such films was for me proof that many of the professionals working within the industry are afraid of material that pushes the medium too far outside its traditional boundaries, that dares to imagine stories and ideas which give voice to “outsider” concerns beyond the level of lip service, or that stretches the accepted limits of narrative entertainment.

More concerning, perhaps, is the minimal change that has come in the wake of the Academy’s much-publicized retooling to promote greater diversity and inclusion among the nominees. While it’s heartening to see people of color and queer people being brought into the mix more consistently than ever before, it’s also all the more painful when we see them passed over or relegated to the status of “also ran” most of the time. As a queer writer working for a queer publication, it’s impossible for me not to be impatient when films with strong LGBTQ content are lauded alongside mainstream titles only to consistently be passed over when it comes to the final victory. While queer subject matter, in varying degrees, was part of movies like “Rustin”, “Nyad”, and even “Barbie,” only two wins in the “major” categories went to films that included significant queer themes – “American Fiction” and “Anatomy of a Fall”, both of which won for their screenplays.

And while it’s now old news, the Academy’s complete omission of Andrew Haigh’s melancholy gay ghost story “All of Us Strangers,” a queer UK film overwhelmingly embraced by other major awards bodies across the world and in America itself and considered a major contender before failing to earn a single Oscar nomination, and female filmmaker Emerald Fennell’s “Saltburn,” which hinged – at least ostensibly – on a queer attraction between stars Barry Keoghan and Jacob Elordi, speaks volumes about the comfort level surrounding queer content within mainstream Hollywood. Even “May December,” a high-profile film directed by queer indie pioneer Todd Haynes but featuring only presumably heterosexual characters, received only a single nod (for Best Original Screenplay) for “May December,” despite being widely considered a front-runner for several acting awards. While inclusivity doesn’t mean considering every queer-relevant movie a shoo-in for the competition, it’s telling when the Academy all but ignores queer titles that have been contenders and even winners at all the other major film award ceremonies, and frankly, it’s extremely annoying. While I can’t speak for women, those in the Black community, or other groups with a history of being dismissed by Oscar, I can only assume that their sentiments must resemble my own.

Yet as I reach the end of my observations about the latest installment of the Academy Awards, I find myself falling short of blaming the Academy itself, at least as an organization. While it has had a problematic history of dragging its feet when it comes to evolving toward a more all-embracing approach to bestowing honors, undeniable progress has been made. That this progress is infuriatingly slow is less a reflection on the awards than it is on Hollywood as a whole; after all, despite Academy efforts to ensure greater diversity among its nominees, it’s the individual choices of its voters that determines the final results – and if those results fail to accomplish more than the occasional token victory for the non-white-heterosexual contenders, it’s a symptom of the fact that those voices are underrepresented within the industry at large.

If we want to see an Academy Awards ceremony that truly accomplishes the kind of all-inclusive spirit for which it has so palpable a potential, we must continue to pressure the Hollywood industry at large to build a more diverse and inclusive creative environment. Otherwise, no matter how much they promise to do better, they will always fall short.

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PHOTOS: Fairfax City Pride

LGBTQ celebration held at Sherwood Center

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A scene from Fairfax City Pride on June 6. (Washington Blade photo by Michael Key)

Fairfax City Pride was held at the Sherwood Center (3740 Blenheim Blvd., Fairfax, Va.) on Saturday, June 6.

(Washington Blade photos by Michael Key)

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D.C. prepares to party as Pride celebrations kick off Saturday

Bars, clubs have busy lineups; Pride on the Pier returns

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The Washington Blade’s Pride on the Pier returns June 13. (Washington Blade photo by Michael Key)

Capital Pride’s date change isn’t slowing down the festivities. Back in December, the Capital Pride Alliance shifted the calendar for Pride celebrations in the nation’s capital from the second weekend of June to two weeks later to the weekend of June 20-21 to not conflict with President Trump’s birthday and 250th anniversary of America celebrations, with the aim that “our community can gather safely and without unnecessary barriers… We are protecting our space and preserving Pride as a powerful act of visibility, solidarity, and resistance.” 

On the heels of WorldPride last year, the city shows no sign of slowing down. Instead, restaurants, bars, clubs, and neighborhoods are taking the opportunity to be even more visible. The Blade has put together a (non-comprehensive) list of parties, activations, and activities across town:

Pride on the Pier returns on Saturday, June 13 to the Wharf on the Southwest waterfront. The event, sponsored and hosted by the Washington Blade, is free and runs from 4-9 p.m. There will be vendors, DJs, and drag performances all day. VIP tickets are $25 and come with air conditioned party room, private bathrooms, and free cocktail. More details at prideonthepierdc.com.

Capital Pride Official Opening Party: RIOT! is the official opening dance party of Capital Pride, taking place Friday June 19, 9 PM-3AM. The 2026 edition headlining performer is Myki Meeks, a finalist of “RuPaul’s Drag Race” season 18; Bob The Drag Queen will perform a special set. DMV-area DJs and performers include: Bambi, Baphomette, Bumper, Cake Pop!, Connor, DJ Ed Bailey, DJ Diyanna Monet, Evry Pleasure, Jakknife Complex, Mari Con Carne, Pussy Noir, WessTheDJ. Trade owner Ed Bailey is producing the event.

Kinetic Presents brings the heat across the entirety of Pride weekend as well. It again is partnering with Capital Pride Alliance to produce four events over four days this Pride, including the Official Main Event on Saturday (the Friday official event is at Echostage). Kinetic’s parties are splayed across various D.C. venues, with special performances, massive productions, shirtless dancers, play zones, dance-forward audio and visuals, and international DJ talent. Thursday, June 18 at 10 PM at District Eagle is Lust, with music by Dan Slater and TOMI. Friday, June 19 at 10 PM is UNCUT XXL Heavy Load, at A.i. Warehouse in Union Market District, with music by Alex Acosta, Felipe Lira & Mitch Ferrino; the party is a “high-octane night of muscular house and tribal rhythms.” Saturday, June 20 at 10 PM brings that official main event, Kinetic Toy Land, at Echostage, with music by GSP & Matt Suave. Alaska Thunderfuck headlines. Sunday evening June 21 at 10 PM closes with discoVERS at SAX. A portion of tickets supports the DC LGBTQ+ community through Capital Pride Alliance.

9:30 Club always comes in clutch for the LGBTQ community. Already in June, it produced Kitty Kat Ball on June 7, and Kiesza performed on June 8. On June 20 at 10 PM, the famed Mixtape party hits the stage, care of gay DJs Shea van Horn and Matt Bailer, who have spun together for coming up on two decades. Mixtape has been held at several venues across the city over those years, and now settled on 9:30 Club for Pride. On June 25 at 7 PM, Big Freedia – the bounce artist from New Orleans – hits the 9:30 Club scene for the eighth time, as part of the Big Freedom Tour.

Crush: New this year from the 14th Street bar is the Pride Pop-Up, sitting pretty in the parking lot at 1820 14th St., N.W., at the corner of Swann Street by the start of the Pride Parade route. Hours are Friday from 2-10 PM and Saturday from 12-10 PM. Friday evening features Grizzly Bear Happy Hour, a DJ will set up shop on Saturday, and for those needing another layer, there’s a Crush merch store. Co-owner Mark Rutstein “has always wanted to throw a party in that parking lot, so he did,” said co-owner Stephen Rutgers. Note that Crush (the bar) will have a cover on Friday and Saturday.

Kiki: Over at Kiki, there’s a full slate of Pride-themed programming all week. Tuesday, June 16 at 9 PM brings karaoke; Wednesday, June 17 at 7:30 PM is trivia; Thursday June 18 at 9PM is “Night of 1000 Tatianna’s Drag Show”, and Friday June 19 at 9 PM brings the Juneteenth Serve Drag Show. Saturday, June 20 at 10 PM, post-parade, is a Pride Dance Party with DJ Lemz. Sunday daytime at 5 PM is the Father Figures Daddy Issues Special Drag Show; and after the festival at 8 PM, DJ Tezrah hits the tapes.

Jane Jane: Right along the parade route, gay-owned Jane Jane has transformed its space into a “No Kings, Yas Queens” activation in a direct response to the America 250th commemorations happening downtown, from the colorful window installation, to merch (including a custom bandana and tank) to disco wig installations. Events include industry night on Mondays, donations to LGBTQ charities, and  to-go cocktails during the Pride Parade.

Shaws Tavern: Gay-owned Shaw’s Tavern on Florida Avenue celebrates Pride week with a full lineup of themed events, entertainment, and specials, including Pride trivia on Monday, June 15 at 7:30 PM, bingo on Tuesday, June 16 at 8 PM, a cabaret on Thursday, June 18 at 9 PM, Juneteenth Drag Brunch on Friday, June 19 at 12:30 PM, and both a pre-parade brunch (10 AM-4 PM) and post-parade party (5-9 PM) on Saturday, June 20. Sunday, June 21 at 7 PM brings Mama’s Sunday Supper & Drag Pride Show in the evening for anyone who is still awake.

Trade: This classic has a weekend of events, starting on Thursday, with Tiburon Pride Edition, a Latin Dance party in the Shark Tank. On Friday, the bar opens early (at 2 PM), with all-day happy hour and the Jx&Evry Show. On Saturday, the bar opens at noon, offering a prime parade viewing spot from its windows. There will be the CLASH drag show hosted by Tatianna and Crimsyn, and Sweet Spot party that night. On Sunday, the bar opens for normal hours at 2 PM, with DJs Adam K, Alex Love, and WESSTHEDJ.

Pitchers: The multi-level bar in Adams Morgan is hosting a Pride-themed show on Thursday, June 18 at 10 PM, with drawstring bag giveaways – the only kind of bag that will be allowed into the bar during Pride weekend. The show features drag queen Kyle Sonique Love. 

Barrel House Cafe and Bar: Also by the parade route on 14th Street, Barrel House Cafe takes advantage of its large patio to have a slate of events during Pride week, including Schism, a drag and burlesque show on June 18 at 10 PM, as well as an all-day Pride party coinciding on parade day.

Bunker: Bunker again plays host to a series of afters. Friday night (Saturday 3:30 AM) is Unhinged, and Saturday night (Sunday 3:30AM) is Unholy. The regular Saturday night party (10 PM) brings in Venetian and Tiara Missou. All parties have cover charges.

District Eagle: Beyond the Kinetic party on Friday, June 19 brings Gear Night at 10 PM; Saturday, June 20 at 10 PM is LOBO presents PRISM, and Sunday, June 21 is Sundaze wit Papi at 6 PM. 

African Art Museum: On Thursday, June 18 at 5 PM, this Smithsonian museum is hosting a free event with artists and curators celebrating its exhibit, “Here: Pride and Belonging in African Art,” “based on years of close collaboration and dialogue with African visual art practitioners who claim belonging in the LGBTQ+ community, however they define those terms,” according to the museum.

KNEAD Hospitality & Design: The gay-owned KNEAD restaurant group (including spots like Gatsby, Mi Vida, Succotash The Grill) is featuring the GLITTERATI cocktail, made with Tito’s, St-Germain Elderflower, Butterfly Flower, ginger, and yes, glitter. A portion of proceeds from every Glitterati cocktail sold will benefit The Trevor Project. The cocktail will be sold throughout June.

The Fountain Inn is partnering with Rhodium spirits (Rhode Island’s first LGBTQ+ owned distillery) all month, making cocktails like gimlets and espresso martinis featuring Rhodium’s liquors. Proceeds benefit SMYAL, an organization dedicated to empowering LGBTQ+ youth. 

Hard Rock Cafe: Hard Rock DC is taking part in the chain’s annual “LOVE OUT LOUD” campaign, with Pride merch, specials on June 20, and a donation to The Trevor Project.

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PHOTOS: Pride Run

D.C. Front Runners hold annual 5K at Congressional Cemetery

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The Pride Run 5K was held at Congressional Cemetery on Saturday. (Washington Blade photo by Michael Key)

The D.C. Front Runners held the 14th annual 5K Pride Run at Congressional Cemetery on Saturday, June 6.

(Washington Blade photos by Michael Key)

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