Real Estate
Uncertainty everywhere: the ups and downs of real estate
With rates declining, we’re ready to get off this roller coaster once and for all
It’s an election year, after a once-in-a-century pandemic, and the country has an uncertain future; for many of us, it feels like its own existence is hanging in the balance. With so much uncertainty in the air, few people would think of real estate at this moment, right?
Perhaps. But for a large group of buyers and sellers actually entering the market now, after waiting years for rates to fall, it seems as good a time as any to join the froth of a bubbling market. To be clear, the frothiness is not felt everywhere, nor for every type of home, so once again, uncertainty seems to be the word of the day and the overall mood in the air.
Sept. 19, 2024 was a date that sellers, buyers and most of all Realtors had circled on their calendars, waiting with breathless anticipation as the promise of a Federal Reserve cut in the overnight lending rate (the “prime” rate) was all but promised by chairman Jerome Powell in the preceding weeks and months. Speculation abounded as to whether it would actually happen though, since Powell had previously promised rate cuts throughout 2022 and “at least three” in 2023—only to play the Lucy role with her proverbial football over and over again, never actually reducing rates by even a skosh.
Those in the know would barely venture an optimistic guess as to whether it would truly happen, and the optimistic few that said “this time, this time it has to happen” would only commit to the cut being a quarter point.
In the weeks before the meeting, mortgage lenders saw that interest rates offered in the open market to consumers actually did fall, which was an indication that market players themselves were more optimistic than the pundits, and had “baked in” the portended rate cut already.
But when Powell made the announcement, he didn’t just give us the football, he gave us a touchdown — with a half-point reduction. Realtors rejoiced; sellers said “sell,” buyers got pre-approved and homeowners considered refinancing, all at the same time.
But when lenders answered calls from would be buyers and refinancers, they had to give the grim news: apparently, the market had baked in too high a rate cut already—and rates actually went UP instead.
So, Lucy turned out to be there all along, not pulling the football back with the hands of Powell, but with the so-called “invisible hand” of market dynamics. Sellers, buyers, and Realtors alike sighed with disappointment, as we then anticipated a season with less froth after all.
All that said, the numbers are actually pretty good in local real estate. While days on market for closed single family homes, condos, and co-ops is up to an average of 23 in Washington, D.C., from their lows of 11 in 2020, median prices this year are actually hovering right near their all-time highs in 2021 of $671,000, down just 0.9% to $664,500.
The resilience of the housing market is buoyed by strong single-family home sales in upper Northwest D.C. which seems to have bidding wars for almost every property; those in the business will certify that condos, especially in more transitional areas, are suffering in the meantime.
Many of our clients with the slower-moving properties are turning to renting them instead, which has caused a higher inventory of rental properties, in turn resulting in some softening in rental prices from their peaks in 2022. So for many sellers, landlords, and agents, this year has felt like a slow one no matter which way we turn.
To navigate these twists and turns of an ever-surprising real estate landscape, it helps to turn to experienced advocates, especially those that have weathered a similar storm before. Our team, for example, has helped our clients through the relatively painless market slowdowns in 2005 and 2007, and of course through the world-changing market crash of 2008, and then the drastically uncertain times during COVID.
From my perspective though, it has been the post-COVID time of high interest rates that is the most challenging of my whole career, and the most frustrating for some of our clients. I think we can all agree that we are ready to get off this roller coaster once and for all—and to not ever want to ride it again.
David Bediz is team leader and a 20-year veteran agent at the Bediz Group, LLC. Reach him via bediz.com or 202-642-1616.
While one would hope it’s easy to calculate a break-even point for a home purchase – such as you could calculate for “how many widgets a month do I need to sell to break even?” It’s not always easy when looking at the return on investment for a home purchase. Condo buildings can lose a view due to new construction next door. Weather patterns can expose deficiencies. Conversely, new dining and entertainment options in a neighborhood can cause home prices to skyrocket. The addition of public transportation and employment options can make a neighborhood more desirable. Or, as we have recently seen in the District of Columbia – an incoming presidential administration can severely affect the “vibe” of an entire city’s economy – for better or for worse.
Homeownership is not necessarily a get rich quick scheme. Most homeowners find that staying in a house for at least 5-10 years – whether owner occupied or not, makes for a significant return on their investment. An owner may not completely pay off a home in 10 years, but they might gain enough equity that they can receive quite a large check when they decide to sell or move. And the old reasoning that “your apartment rental community does not cut you a sizeable check when moving out after 15 years.” still stands. Is homeownership for everyone? Absolutely not. But many have reported other benefits besides purely financial gains. What are those benefits?
- Feeling a sense of community. – homeowners tend to take more pride in their buildings and neighborhoods, because they feel more invested and tend to want to protect their investment. Neighborhood watch programs, getting to know elderly neighbors, forming building wide or cul-de-sac wide favorite TV show watch nights, super bowl parties, and other such communal and social ties lead to an overall sense of wellbeing and help to stabilize a nervous system in uncertain times.
- Feng Shui? Well, maybe there’s something to it. If you have been wanting to customize your own home but live in an apartment, there are many more restrictions on what you can do in a rental, than when you own your own home. Do you want new countertops? Would you love to remove that popcorn ceiling? Open up that kitchen? Convert the back yard into a curated patio/cold plunge/hot tub time machine cookout/spring break adventure campsite of your wildest dreams?
- Forming longer lasting relationships – sharing that CostCo membership with others on your floor, making a pan of lasagna and inviting the neighbors over for dinner, picking your neighbor’s brain for stock investment advice, asking your neighbor’s son to help you create a marketing plan for your new business, hosting the Friendsgiving you dreamed of – there are multitudes of reasons and ways that homeowners tend to feel a sense of community, sharing of resources, and realizing over time that “it takes a village.”
- Higher civic engagement – Studies have shown that homeowners tend to be more politically active in their districts, participate in local school boards, know the names of and how to contact their local representatives to affect change, etc. Having a higher financial investment in and a commitment to stay in a neighborhood beyond just one or two years makes a big difference in who decides to show up at election time, especially for local elections.
If you would like to know more about the research on homeownership, feel free to read the report from the National Association of Realtors here.
Joseph Hudson is a referral agent with RLAH. Reach him at 703-587-0597 or [email protected].
Real Estate
D.C.’s housing reality: Cautious optimism meets landlord strain
Cost of living remains a major problem
Washington has long prided itself on stability. Anchored by the federal government and buoyed by a highly educated workforce, the District has historically weathered economic uncertainty better than most cities.
But beneath that stability, cracks have been showing since January 2025.
I was having a conversation with a prospective client the other day and offered him a candid assessment of the District’s economic outlook. Simply put, structural challenges have been shaping the city’s future, a new mayoral election, and more that blends cautious optimism with clear concern about the changes ahead.
For one, the long-term shift toward remote and hybrid work continues to reshape the city in ways many people still underestimate. There has been a change in the rhythm of downtown D.C., reduced daytime foot traffic for local businesses, and created uncertainty for commercial real estate owners and the neighborhoods that depended on those workers every day.
At the same time, the cost of living in the District continues to rise at a pace that many residents are struggling to absorb. Even residents with strong incomes are becoming more cautious about spending and relocation decisions.
Landlords are feeling those pressures as well. Many smaller housing providers are operating in an environment where expenses continue to rise faster than revenue while the regulatory environment has grown increasingly complex. For some rental owners, especially those with older buildings or only a few rental units, the math is making it harder to cover costs, much less generate passive income.
There is also growing concern about the District government’s own financial outlook. Significant budget pressures and spending cuts are being had in a more serious way than many Washingtonians are used to hearing. As uncertainty in federal employment affects local tax revenue and consumer confidence, how will the city fund services, infrastructure, housing programs, and public safety priorities in the years ahead?
At the same time, consumer confidence feels noticeably down than it did even a few years ago. People are taking longer to make decisions, whether that means signing a lease, purchasing a home, renovating a property, or expanding a business. That hesitation creates a slower-moving marketplace where caution often replaces momentum.
Despite all this, Washington has proven remarkably resilient over time. The city continues to attract talented professionals, international investment, universities, healthcare institutions, and industries tied to government, law, technology, and public policy. Neighborhoods continue to evolve, and demand for well-managed rental housing remains strong in the core areas of the city.
Unlike other major cities driven by private industry, federal employment and contracting are two of the main pillars of Washington’s economy. That reliance has long insulated the region from deep recessions. But it also creates vulnerability when federal activity slows.
D.C.’s economy is far more interconnected and interdependent than many people fully appreciate. Between significant federal layoffs, the District’s high unemployment rate, and broader economic uncertainty, there are a number of warning signs that property owners should be paying close attention to. When federal hiring slows or contracts tighten, the impact extends well beyond government workers themselves. It affects restaurants, retail, housing, and countless other sectors tied to the District’s economic activity.
Brookings Institution has documented how job losses in higher-income sectors can disproportionately impact urban economies—precisely because those workers drive local spending.
Research from the Urban Institute supports this view, noting that federal workforce disruptions can quickly ripple through the region’s economy. For landlords and renters alike, those ripples are already being felt. Renters see many more properties on the market which gives them leverage on negotiating discounts in rent or special incentives. Housing providers, already squeezed by the reality of a weak economy and strong regulations face lowering rents and income.
For years, affordability has been one of D.C.’s most persistent challenges. Much of that pressure has been driven by strong job growth and sustained demand for housing at a pace that new housing inventory has struggled to match. That imbalance has steadily pushed rents and home prices higher, leaving many residents financially stretched.
Recent multifamily housing data suggests the market is already beginning to adjust. Developers delivered more than 15,000 apartment units across the Washington metropolitan area over the past year, and several industry reports have noted that elevated supply levels, combined with slower demand growth, have contributed to softer occupancy levels and downward pressure on rents in portions of the region. CoStar, CBRE, and Northmarq have all reported rising vacancy rates across segments of the D.C. multifamily market as newly delivered Class A inventory continues entering the pipeline at a time when hiring growth has moderated and federal workforce uncertainty has increased.
At the same time, several economists and housing analysts have cautioned that the District’s affordability challenges are deeply structural and unlikely to disappear quickly. The Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University has repeatedly identified Washington among the nation’s more cost-burdened metropolitan areas, particularly for renters, while Zillow data continues to show housing costs consuming a substantial percentage of household income for many residents.
From my own perspective as a property manager working directly in the market every day, I believe we are beginning to see the early stages of a market recalibration rather than a collapse. Anecdotally, there appears to be more competition among larger apartment buildings than there was several years ago, particularly in neighborhoods where substantial new inventory has recently delivered. That does not necessarily mean dramatic rent declines are coming, but it does suggest that the imbalance between supply and demand may be moderating somewhat after years of sustained upward pressure on pricing.
Even if prices soften, affordability will remain a long-term challenge.
Regulation and the Realities of Tenant Turnover
The same rental owner I spoke with pointed to regulatory hurdles as a major source of hesitation to continue renting out his property, given past bad experiences with tenants and excessive costs to prepare the rental for a new tenant.
For many small property owners, the cumulative weight of regulation, maintenance costs, and market uncertainty is becoming harder to bear. Clients of mine have described feeling overwhelmed, not just financially, but emotionally. What was once a source of pride has, in some cases, become a source of stress.
We’re seeing more small landlords sell their rental homes, questioning whether it’s worth staying in the market. That’s a significant shift from even five or ten years ago. The National Multifamily Housing Council has noted that regulatory complexity often disproportionately impacts smaller landlords, who lack the resources of larger firms.
Some are choosing to sell. Others are simply trying to hold on. The result is the same – less rental housing for DC residents.
A Shift From Pride to Disillusionment
Perhaps the most striking theme is the emotional shift described by the property owner. For some, owning property in D.C., once a milestone achievement, has become a source of disillusionment. They cited financial losses, regulatory frustration, and a growing sense of political alienation.
There are also broader concerns about:
- The decline of small multifamily ownership
- Rising foreclosures in certain segments
- Increased consolidation by larger institutional landlords
If small landlords continue to exit the market, it changes the entire housing ecosystem. You lose diversity in housing options, and that can have long-term consequences for affordability. It also robs families of having homes large enough to live in.
Politics and Policy: A System at a Standstill?
The political environment has obviously been a key factor shaping the city’s housing future. Following the 2026 elections, a lack of significant leadership change may result in continued policy stagnation.
Without meaningful policy shifts, we’re likely to see more of the same: continued and increasing pressure on landlords and not enough study and focus on policies to increase housing supply by first stopping those property owners fleeing the District’s extreme tenant friendliness. The D.C. City Council remains central to these decisions, with advocacy groups continuing to push for expanded tenant protections. The importance of balance cannot be understated: ensuring protections for renters while maintaining a viable environment for housing providers.
Taken together, these dynamics point to a housing system at a crossroads.
D.C. must find a way to balance:
- Tenant protections
- Housing affordability
- Landlord sustainability
- Long-term investment in housing supply
What’s Next?
D.C. isn’t going anywhere. The question is how it adapts. If we can find the right balance, there’s a path forward, but it’s going to take time and thoughtful policy decisions. For landlords, that path will require adaptability and engagement. For renters, it may mean gradual rather than immediate relief. For policymakers, it presents a clear challenge: create a system that works for everyone.
Scott Bloom is owner and senior property manager of Columbia Property Management. Contact him via ColumbiaPM.com.
Real Estate
Introducing Next-Generation Assisted Living & Memory Support.
Now Available in Tysons: Kokua at The Mather
We have good news for those seeking assisted living or memory support for a loved one: a fresh, hospitality-driven approach to care is now available in the heart of Tysons, Virginia. Kokua at The Mather opened in fall 2025 and provides residents with collaborative care as well as everyday possibilities for creativity, purpose, and connection.
For a limited time, Kokua is welcoming new residents with exclusive move-in incentives.
“Kokua is a Hawaiian word meaning ‘To extend help to others without expecting anything in return,’” explains Brandon Davidson, Administrator. “If you’re seeking support for a loved one, Kokua is worth a closer look. We take an individualized approach to care, with evidence-based practices provided by a dedicated, interdisciplinary team.”

LIMITED-TIME OPPORTUNITY
“At Kokua, we focus on the individual. We blend care with our research-driven approach to deliver personalized wellness tailored to residents’ needs and preferences,” says Davidson.
Residents enjoy the freedom to choose from enriching programs, meaningful social opportunities with experiences such as sensory walks, meditation, acupuncture, Reiki, songwriting workshops, poetry readings, Sensory Symphony Swim, and more.
Assisted Living in Ādar
Ādar means “respect”, and Kokua delivers. Comfortable residential living is combined with caring assisted living services, enabling residents to remain as independent as possible. Each one-bedroom apartment home (ranging in size up to nearly 900 square feet) offers generous space and thoughtful design, complemented by assistance with daily living tasks and emergency response systems for peace of mind.
Memory Support in Miran
Miran means “peaceful”—another pillar in the Kokua way of life. Private suites are designed for those with mild to moderate Alzheimer’s disease, dementia, or similar cognitive conditions. “Our person-centered approach embraces individual strengths and needs, with an interdisciplinary team that includes a staff member in attendance 24 hours a day to assist with event reminders and activities of daily living,” says Davidson. “Residents have access to a variety of opportunities to connect, express, and explore their potential through social events, wellness programs, creative arts, and more.”
Kokua offers the next generation of care in these areas, with a commitment to highly personalized service.

INSPIRED AMENITIES & BOUTIQUE SERVICE
Nestled in a lively urban neighborhood, Kokua incorporates biophilic design that brings the outside in to enhance health and wellbeing.
Throughout Kokua, residents enjoy a collection of thoughtfully designed spaces and top-shelf hospitality in an upscale community. Beautifully appointed gathering spaces create flexible opportunities for wellness, connection, and everyday enjoyment. A spacious outdoor terrace, demonstration kitchens, art and music studios, and more are used for an array of programs and are available to residents and their visitors. Multiple restaurants offer chef-prepared cuisine with flexible, open-hour service.
“Here at Kokua, we’re offering the next generation of care in Ādar and Miran, and it’s available to the public for a limited time,” says Davidson. Now is an ideal time to explore the personalized care and quiet luxury that Kokua at The Mather has to offer.
For more information, download a brochure at www.themathertysons.com/kokua. To schedule a visit or for additional details, contact Kokua at [email protected] or (571) 282.3650.
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